While being above consensus for Q1 and 2025, due to the estimated margin contribution from lucrative Aker BP projects, we believe consensus overestimates revenue capacity from 2026e as oil & gas projects taper off, being replaced by higher-risk renewables projects, in our view. We also see limited cash flow generation ahead due to working capital unwind. We reiterate our NOK30 target price, but have upgraded to HOLD (SELL).
Following Q1 earnings calls by some of the oil service companies, 2025 outlooks appear more challenging than previously. Baker Hughes expects international upstream spending to decline by mid- to high-single digits, while Halliburton sees its international revenues flat to slightly down. Furthermore, Weatherford expects 2025 international revenue to decline by low double- to mid-double digits. Precision Drilling flagged additional rig suspensions by Saudi Aramco, and SLB highlighted a slow start...
Driven by macro headwinds and uncertainty around trade tariffs, ENI was the first large oil company to introduce capex cuts for 2025, contributing to a more challenging business environment for oil services. Over the past five years, we estimate ENI to have been the oil major with strongest offshore spending growth, and it has been considered active and opportunistic while others have been more conservative. Hence, we see its reduction as a soft datapoint for oil services. ENI has optimised its ...
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