Tomra Systems: Regulatory tailwinds, strategic discipline - Upgrade to...

Given Tomra’s stronger fundamentals, regulatory momentum, and disciplined execution, we have updated our estimates to reflect strengthened growth outlook. This leads us to upgrade our rating from NEUTRAL to BUY. Our updated DCF model (9.0% WACC, 2% LTG), points to a PT of NOK200 (vs. old-PT at NOK1

In a mid-cycle plateau

Following recent updates from E&P companies, we have reduced our 2025 offshore spending estimate to 0.5% (from c3% earlier this year). This is driven by a combination of actual 2024 spending being higher than expected (8% versus 4% previously), creating tougher comparables and a reduction in spending plans from Pemex in 2025. Despite growth flattening out, we still see the cycle building in duration, with execution of deepwater developments remaining on the agenda, albeit with a delayed executio...

Renewable Weekly – 20 February 2025

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

Energy Morning - 17 February 2025

Stronger for longer

Don't extrapolate too much

Tomra Systems: strong FY24 execution

This morning, Tomra Systems reported Q4 2024 results. Sales totalled EUR398m (+12% YoY vs. EUR354m in Q4 2023; +22% QoQ, vs. EUR326m in Q3 2024) on the back of strong revenues in Recycling and continued improvements in Food. This put FY24 revenue at EUR1,348m (+5% YoY vs. EUR1,288m in FY23). Adj. E

Energy Morning - 14 February 2025

Q4 first take: strong, limited weak points

Aker Solutions (Sell, TP: NOK30.00) - Extending the happy days

While clearly positive that the AkerBP portfolio continues to surprise on the upside, further boosting 2025e, we see downside risk from 2026e on a limited lucrative oil & gas backlog. The renewables portfolio report another significant loss in Q4, making us lukewarm to its future margin potential. We reiterate SELL, but have raised our target price to NOK30 (27), reflecting the strong 2025e.

Energy Morning - 11 February 2025

Weaker Q4 more than offset by strong guidance

Offshore spending plateauing

After reviewing major oil companies’ most recent spending plans, we estimate offshore spending growth of c3% YOY in 2025 (down from c5% late last year and c8% six months ago). We believe a combination of supply-chain bottlenecks, efficiency gains, and capital discipline among oil companies are the main reasons for spending growth fading, resulting in a mid-cycle plateau. On the flip side, the cycle keeps building duration, as we see investments being pushed into 2026–2027. Also, activity levels ...

Energy Morning - 10 February 2025

Energy Morning - 5 February 2025

Energy Morning - 29 January 2025

Slow start to 2025 for offshore, but cycle duration highlighted

SLB said on its recent Q4 earnings call that it expects flat global upstream spending YOY in 2025, while Halliburton guided for flat group revenue. Both expect offshore activity to improve as the year progresses, based on numerous FIDs late-2025 and into 2026 – but implying a slow start to the year. These comments mirror feedback we have had from industry sources, although we are already seeing offshore drilling campaigns slipping towards the end of 2026, or even into 2027. Hence, their comments...

Energy Morning - 28 January 2025

Renewable Weekly – 27 January 2024

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

Energy Morning - 27 January 2025