Energy Morning - 2 June 2025

Recycling reversal

Tomra Systems: slow start to 2025

Tomra Systems has reported Q1 2025 results this morning. Q1 2025 group revenue came in at EUR306m (+5% YoY vs. EUR291m in Q1 2024) with revenues of EUR185m in Collection (-2% YoY vs. EUR189m in Q1 2024), EUR70m in Food (a strong +17% YoY vs. EUR60m in Q1 2024 and EUR46m in Recycling (flat YoY vs. E

Q1 first take: softer in Recycling

Approaching apex

Energy Morning - 30 April 2025

EBITDA 3% above - '25e guidance lifted

Aker Solutions (Hold, TP: NOK30.00) - Downside risk from 2026e

While being above consensus for Q1 and 2025, due to the estimated margin contribution from lucrative Aker BP projects, we believe consensus overestimates revenue capacity from 2026e as oil & gas projects taper off, being replaced by higher-risk renewables projects, in our view. We also see limited cash flow generation ahead due to working capital unwind. We reiterate our NOK30 target price, but have upgraded to HOLD (SELL).

Better risk-reward elsewhere - Down to HOLD

Muted 2025 growth expectations

Following Q1 earnings calls by some of the oil service companies, 2025 outlooks appear more challenging than previously. Baker Hughes expects international upstream spending to decline by mid- to high-single digits, while Halliburton sees its international revenues flat to slightly down. Furthermore, Weatherford expects 2025 international revenue to decline by low double- to mid-double digits. Precision Drilling flagged additional rig suspensions by Saudi Aramco, and SLB highlighted a slow start...

ENI capex cut but maintains shareholder returns

Driven by macro headwinds and uncertainty around trade tariffs, ENI was the first large oil company to introduce capex cuts for 2025, contributing to a more challenging business environment for oil services. Over the past five years, we estimate ENI to have been the oil major with strongest offshore spending growth, and it has been considered active and opportunistic while others have been more conservative. Hence, we see its reduction as a soft datapoint for oil services. ENI has optimised its ...

Uncertainty is bad for business

E&P spending sensitivity explored

With an oil price at the mid-USD60s/bbl level, focus on the oil major overspending situation, and resulting impact on the outlook for offshore-focused oil services, is set to increase further. While oil companies would likely cut, or even eliminate, buyback programmes first, we expect increased focus on spending reductions and efficiencies, creating a more challenging business environment for oil services. Hence, we see a risk of oil companies taking a more cautious approach, resulting in projec...

Energy Morning - 4 April 2025

Crude Quarterly Q1'25: weaker oil market fundamentals

Tomra Systems: Regulatory tailwinds, strategic discipline - Upgrade to...

Given Tomra’s stronger fundamentals, regulatory momentum, and disciplined execution, we have updated our estimates to reflect strengthened growth outlook. This leads us to upgrade our rating from NEUTRAL to BUY. Our updated DCF model (9.0% WACC, 2% LTG), points to a PT of NOK200 (vs. old-PT at NOK1

In a mid-cycle plateau

Following recent updates from E&P companies, we have reduced our 2025 offshore spending estimate to 0.5% (from c3% earlier this year). This is driven by a combination of actual 2024 spending being higher than expected (8% versus 4% previously), creating tougher comparables and a reduction in spending plans from Pemex in 2025. Despite growth flattening out, we still see the cycle building in duration, with execution of deepwater developments remaining on the agenda, albeit with a delayed executio...

Renewable Weekly – 20 February 2025

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

Energy Morning - 17 February 2025

Stronger for longer