Market sources suggest Saudi Aramco will further reduce its rig count in the coming months through early contract terminations and potentially more suspensions, which would mark the ‘fourth round’ of rig reductions. This follows last month’s request for dayrate discussions (historically, such requests have preceded it suspending rigs). We believe this round could be extensive, affecting c10 jackups out of its current rig count of c57 rigs. At the peak, Aramco had 92 jackups (22% of global demand...
While being above consensus for Q1 and 2025, due to the estimated margin contribution from lucrative Aker BP projects, we believe consensus overestimates revenue capacity from 2026e as oil & gas projects taper off, being replaced by higher-risk renewables projects, in our view. We also see limited cash flow generation ahead due to working capital unwind. We reiterate our NOK30 target price, but have upgraded to HOLD (SELL).
Following Q1 earnings calls by some of the oil service companies, 2025 outlooks appear more challenging than previously. Baker Hughes expects international upstream spending to decline by mid- to high-single digits, while Halliburton sees its international revenues flat to slightly down. Furthermore, Weatherford expects 2025 international revenue to decline by low double- to mid-double digits. Precision Drilling flagged additional rig suspensions by Saudi Aramco, and SLB highlighted a slow start...
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