First award confirmed under Petrobras ‘rig pool’ tender

Constellation confirmed the contract award under the Petrobras ‘rig pool’ tender after being the low bidder on Lot 1 with its 6G drillship Amaralina Star (dayrate of cUSD429k including third-party services). Based on the confirmation of Constellation, we believe the remaining two awards in the ‘rig pool’ tender have likely also been concluded, with Etesco’s 6G drillship Etesco Takatsugu J (USD352k) and Seadrill’s 7G drillship West Jupiter (around the USD450k level) as the low bidders. As highlig...

Energy Morning - 17 December 2024

Norway: Best ideas Q4'24

Energy Morning - 16 December 2024

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

ExxonMobil update highlights efficiency, no incremental demand for oil...

From an oil services perspective, we consider the key takeaway from ExxonMobil’s corporate update to be continued high and improving capital efficiency, allowing it to do “more with less”. By 2030e, it plans to increase production by c1m barrels per day to 5.4m barrels per day on largely flat upstream capex compared to 2023–2024 levels. This implies further efficiency improvement, which we consider on the downside for the oil services industry as it implies no need for incremental service capaci...

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Energy Morning - 27 November 2024

Petrobras rig pool tender appears to have awarded three of four rig sl...

For the Petrobras ‘rig pool’ tender, which had bids due in mid-October, bid evaluation appears to have been completed. The tender was for “up to” four deepwater rigs with 3-year duration across three lots. It seems Petrobras has only progressed with three of the maximum four rigs it could award. Lots 1 and 2 appear to have gone to local contractors Constellation and Etesco, while only Seadrill was selected in Lot 3, making up the three rigs in total (meaning Valaris was not selected in Lot 3). W...

Energy Morning - 25 November 2024

Brent spot: USD 74.6bbl, flat from last OSE close.OSX: 81.5, down 0.3% since last OSE close.Paratus (B): guides up but also focus on rig in standby and Pemex uncertainty.AKSO (B): goes ex. NOK 21 / per share e.o dividend today.

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Petrobras FPSO delays may hit service volumes but lengthen cycle

Being the largest global consumer of deepwater oil services, Petrobras’ strategic plans tend to get investor attention. On the positive side, its latest 5-year plan sees 5% higher E&P spending than the previous one, and has a more stable phasing between the years, which is supportive for the cycle duration. However, several FPSOs are facing significant delays, which is on the downside for oil services, leading to delays for deepwater oilfield services (primarily drilling and subsea), likely resu...

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Odfjell Drilling (Buy, TP: NOK100.00) - Set to deliver on dividend sto...

With its intensive 5-year survey schedule on track and within budget (two completed and two remaining), the company intends to increase its quarterly dividend with its Q4 results. The current dividend yield is 5%, while we estimate 7–16% for 2025–2026. We see further upside to this in a potential refinancing scenario that could allow all cash to be distributed to shareholders, suggesting potential for aggregated dividends equal to its entire market cap to be paid by end-2028. We expect Odfjell D...

Unmatched performance

EBITDA above and outlook remains strong

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Aker Solutions (Sell, TP: NOK48.00) - Excitement overdone

We can understand the initial investor excitement about a dividend, but compared to fundamentals, we find yesterday’s share price reaction exaggerated, in particular as the stock was strong into what was a weak Q3 report. Looking ahead, we see no free cash flow generation over 2025–2027e. We reiterate our NOK48 target price but have downgraded to SELL (HOLD).

Energy Morning - 1 November 2024