reports
- ABGSC Energy Research
- Daniel Vårdal Haugland
- Haakon Amundsen
- John Olaisen
- Njål Kleiven
- Stian Wibstad
- Steffen Evjen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Slow start to 2025 for offshore, but cycle duration highlighted
SLB said on its recent Q4 earnings call that it expects flat global upstream spending YOY in 2025, while Halliburton guided for flat group revenue. Both expect offshore activity to improve as the year progresses, based on numerous FIDs late-2025 and into 2026 – but implying a slow start to the year. These comments mirror feedback we have had from industry sources, although we are already seeing offshore drilling campaigns slipping towards the end of 2026, or even into 2027. Hence, their comments...
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
BORR BORR DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
VTURA VENTURA OFFSHORE
PLSV PARATUS ENERGY SERVICES LTD.
- ABGSC Energy Research
- Daniel Vårdal Haugland
- Haakon Amundsen
- John Olaisen
- Njål Kleiven
- Stian Wibstad
- ABGSC Energy Research
- Daniel Vårdal Haugland
- Haakon Amundsen
- John Olaisen
- Njål Kleiven
- Stian Wibstad
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- Haakon Amundsen
- Njål Kleiven
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, OKEA published a solid Q4 trading update, with net production of 37.8kboed well above our 32.4kboed estimate, leaving full-year production at 39.1kboed, at the top end of its 37–39kboed guidance. In other news, BW Energy announced it is targeting an FID for Maromba in Q1, with capex expected around USD1.2bn (~USD1.0bn previously). Also, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary production figures for December show production was down ~5% YOY.
- Steffen Evjen
Soft NCS production in December
The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary NCS figures for December showed soft liquids production of 2,018kboed (2% below forecast) and solid gas production of 361mcm/d (2% above forecast). Overall production was 4.29mmboed, up 1.2% MOM (in line with its forecast), but down 5.3% YOY. On a company level, Equinor, Vår Energi and DNO saw higher production MOM in November, while Aker BP (which has already reported Q4 production) and OKEA saw lower production MOM.
- Steffen Evjen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Aker Solutions (Sell, TP: NOK27.00) - Backlog replacement needed
With few oil & gas projects in the pipeline offshore Norway, backlog replacement of its lucrative Aker BP jobs looks challenging, highlighting a risk of declining activity and a shift towards lower-margin and higher-risk renewables projects; this puts us 10–15% below consensus for 2026–2027e EBITDA. Despite record-high EBITDA in 2025–2026e, we estimate essentially no FCF for 2025–2027 due to working capital unwind. We reiterate our SELL and NOK27 target price (unchanged versus the previous NOK48...
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics and discussion
This week, we released a sector update for our E&P coverage. We made minor changes to our oil and gas prices assumptions, but struggled to find an appealing risk/reward among our large caps, especially gas-heavy names. We favour Aker BP and Panoro Energy as our top picks, while Equinor remains a funding candidate. In other news, Equinor and Aker BP released Q4 trading statements. We view Equinor’s figures as neutral, and Aker BP’s as strong, due to solid production and realised oil and gas price...
- ABGSC Energy Research
- Åsne Holsen
- Daniel Vårdal Haugland
- Haakon Amundsen
- John Olaisen
- Oliver Dunvold
- Stian Wibstad
- Steffen Evjen
Limited prospects for re-rating
While our coverage universe has seen a strong start to the year, we have made minor alterations to our oil and gas price assumptions, as sanction-related upside potential appears to be priced in the Brent oil and share prices. Thus, we struggle to find an appealing risk/reward among the large caps, especially gas-heavy names, prompting us to downgrade Vår Energi and BlueNord to HOLD (BUY). We favour Aker BP and Panoro Energy as our top picks, while Equinor remains a funding candidate.
- Steffen Evjen
- ABGSC Energy Research
- Åsne Holsen
- Daniel Vårdal Haugland
- Haakon Amundsen
- John Olaisen
- Oliver Dunvold
- Stian Wibstad
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, Equinor reported a preliminary internal gas price of USD12.05/mmbtu for Q4, slightly below Bloomberg consensus and 10% below the TTF day-ahead for the quarter. It also announced that the ongoing outage at its Hammerfest LNG facility was being extended by 10 days to 19 January. In other news, BlueNord reported preliminary net production of 28.9kboed for December, and 26.0kboed for Q4, slightly below our estimate of 29.0kboed.
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- Haakon Amundsen
- John Olaisen
- Njål Kleiven
- Oliver Dunvold
- Stian Wibstad
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
AKAST AKASTOR ASA
PGS PGS ASA
KOG KONGSBERG GRUPPEN ASA
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
DNO DNO ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
PRS PROSAFE
OKEA OKEA
BWE BW ENERGY
BORR BORR DRILLING LTD
VAR VAR ENERGI ASA
SEAPT-NO SEACREST PETROLEO
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- John Olaisen
- Oliver Dunvold
- ABGSC Energy Research
- Åsne Holsen
- Daniel Vårdal Haugland
- Haakon Amundsen
- John Olaisen
- Oliver Dunvold
- Stian Wibstad
- Steffen Evjen
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