Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Performance and valuation data for Nordic real estate stocks as of 3 May 2024.

On track

European occupancy continues up. Minor estimate changes for '25e-'26e. Trading above key peers, we reiterate HOLD.

Q1 reporting continues

This week, Castellum and Balder reported Q1 results, Wihlborgs announced a new lease, and SBB corrected 2023 profits and dissolved Unobo. Norges Bank has signalled interest rates might stay higher for longer. K2A has halted preference dividend payments. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.69% for 2024e and 4.97% for 2025e.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Performance and valuation data for Nordic real estate stocks as of 26 April 2024.

Q1 reporting season kicks off

Q1 reporting season kicked off this week, with results from Nyfosa, Entra, Wallenstam, Fabege, KMC Properties, Pandox, and Catena. In other news, Public Property Invest is to be listed on the Oslo stock exchange on 29 April. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.75% for 2024e and 5.04% for 2025e.

Medistim (Hold, TP: NOK190.00) - Sales in Americas weaken

Revenues grew 3.5% YOY in Q1 (currency-neutral total sales grew 2.2%), below our estimate c6%. The EBIT margin of 24% was almost back to normal and in our view shows the low margin in Q4 2023 (16.4%) should be seen as a one-off. However, we remain concerned about revenue growth, especially in the Americas, after the fifth consecutive quarter of declining currency-neutral sales. Thus, while we reiterate our HOLD, we have lowered our 2024–2026e sales by c3–8% and cut our target price to NOK190 (21...

Pandox (Hold, TP: SEK175.00) - Q1 in line, fairly valued

Q1 FFOps was in line with our estimate but below Infront consensus. While we have made only minor forecast changes, following the recent share performance and as the stock is trading close to our target price, we have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) but reiterate our SEK175 target price.

Miss even incl. one-off items

Entra (Hold, TP: NOK105.00) - Continued asset value decline

Entra reported weaker underlying Q1 results than we expected, as well as still-declining asset values (-2.5% QOQ) due to higher yield valuations. On increased market interest rates, we have cut our 2024–2026e FFO by c12–16%. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to NOK105 (115).

Not what we wanted, but 100 is the new 80

Weak report on most metrics. Large long-term potential. BUY, TP of NOK 135.

EPBD the big story this week

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. In other news, KMC Properties bought a new asset and appointed an interim CEO, JM got a new CEO, while Castellum announced a divestment and new leases, and Atrium Ljungberg kicked off Q1 reporting season. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.74% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2...

Renovation rules now a reality

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. Member states will have two years to incorporate the provisions into their national legislation. While Q1 is Nordic construction’s low season due to winter effects, we see some downside risk to Q1e consensus and longer-term to 2024–2026e EBIT on lower development gains. We recommend a stock-picking approa...

NRC Group (Buy, TP: NOK15.00) - New CEO’s plan in focus

NRC’s Q1s tend to be its low season, due to the Nordic winter effects, and we expect a seasonal loss in EBIT (results due at c07:00 CET on 25 May). However, announced order intake has been strong, including the order termination and excluding the EUR344m light rail alliance contract in Finland. In conjunction with the Q1 results, NRC is due to host a CMD, where the new CEO will present the new group strategy. We continue to see strong upside potential on an EBIT margin recovery and reiterate our...

Fully valued near-term

We maintain a neutral sector stance, but see near-term setbacks and consider risks tilted to the downside near-term due to strong sector performance in the past month, while market interest rates have risen. We expect two years of zero NAV growth, on average, due to yield expansion, and the sector theme to be deleveraging, with limited capex. We see few potential company-specific catalysts, leaving share prices largely driven by macro factors. We consider the sector fully valued near-term, at an...

Vacancy uptick in Stockholm

This week, Citymark announced vacancies in the Stockholm office market are now higher than during the 2007–2008 financial crisis. Selvaag Bolig (SELL, TP NOK25) released KPIs for Q1, where unsold inventory was at an all-time high. Norwegian house prices rose 0.9% in March and 5.9% YTD. Entra announced leases. Corem announced that it aims to issue bonds. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.62% for 2024e and 4.88% for 2025e.

Transactions, debt repurchase, and National Transport Plan

This week, Corem, Catena and Vasakronan (which re-entered the M&A arena after a more than 5-year absence) announced property transactions, SBB saw its share price rise by 29% on the week after retiring long-term debt, and the Norwegian government unveiled a somewhat smaller budget in its latest National Transport Plan (NTP), with a weak read-across to the local construction and consultancy sector, in our view The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.54% for 2024e a...

Pandox AB: 1 director

A director at Pandox AB sold 2,000,000 shares at 170.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 74/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

Insider transactions, SBB rating lowered and lease contracts

There were several insider transactions this week. Also, SBB offered to buy back certain hybrid and senior bonds, and credit agencies lowered their ratings in response. Corem announced new leases, and a large Norwegian real estate syndicate was taken over by one of its bondholders. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.60% for 2024e and 4.86% for 2025e.

Modest 2024–2026 growth outlook

We expect flattish 2024–2025 NAVps growth for our Swedish coverage, due to too-low asset writedowns in 2023, but 7% in 2026e assuming stabilised yields. We forecast a 2024–2025 FFOps CAGR of 5%, held back by: 1) maturing interest rate hedges; 2) expected rental growth slow-down; and 3) deleveraging hurting investment capacity. However, we consider this priced in at a sector NAV median discount of 27%. We maintain a neutral sector stance, and our top picks are Catena, Castellum, Nyfosa and Pandox...

NRC Group ASA: 2 directors

A director at NRC Group ASA maiden bought 9,430 shares at 10.800NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years c...