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ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze

Q2 margin not quite up to scratch

Sales grew 4%, but adj. EBITA margin down to 6.8% (7.7%). T&D segment struggling, but action being taken; E&E demand strong. Estimate downgrades mainly for '24e-'25e, maintain long-term view.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze

Calm Q2e, M&A opportunities in H2

Q2e: orders -2%, sales 0%, adj. EBITA +2% y-o-y. Hope for M&A in H2, market turning more active. P/E 15-12x vs. peers at 24-9x, fair value SEK 40-55.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze

Gradual improvements from Q4 low

Orders recover from Q4 low, NWC release supports fantastic FCF. Some one-offs weigh on profitability, expect margins to improve. Management seems upbeat on M&A market, acquisitions in '24 likely.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze

Expect stable demand and improving margins

Q1e: orders -2%, sales +1% y-o-y, adj. EBITA margin 7.0% (6.2%). Expect stable demand and improving margins in '24e. Hope to see M&A drive growth as organic sales normalise.

Henric Hintze
  • Henric Hintze

Christian Berner Tech - Management seems positive on outlook

A good quarter, but up against tough comps Strong order-intake and book, up 15.5% and 60% y-o-y ’22e EBITA up 10%, minor changes to ’23e-’24e

Henric Hintze ... (+2)
  • Henric Hintze
  • Max Bacco

Christian Berner Tech - Down y-o-y but much better than feared

Sales down 3%, adj. EBITA down 12% y-o-y 8% miss on sales, but 34% beat on adj. EBITA ‘22e adj. EBITA estimates up 10% on Q3 numbers alone

Henric Hintze ... (+2)
  • Henric Hintze
  • Max Bacco

Christian Berner Tech - Component shortages weigh on margins

Q3 report due Thursday, 27 October We expect margins to be under continued pressure New FVR of SEK 19-28 (27-37)

Max Bacco
  • Max Bacco

Christian Berner Tech - Building inventory to deliver on order backlog

Organic sales growth of 10.5% vs. ABGSCe of 5.7% Temporary gross margin pressure in H2’22e… …but optimistic signs of a return to M&A

Max Bacco
  • Max Bacco

Christian Berner Tech - Time to ramp up acquisition pace

Sales 7% above our expectations… …but adj. EBITA 23% below Management intends to ramp up M&A pace

Max Bacco
  • Max Bacco

Christian Berner Tech - Looks like a decent quarter

Q2 report due Thursday, 18 August Margins to improve 220bp y-o-y FVR of SEK 27-37 reiterated

Max Bacco
  • Max Bacco

Christian Berner Tech - Let’s see what Mrs. Reuterskiöld has in mind

Adj. EBITA 12% above our expectations Q2’22 should be boosted by heating projects… …and strong L12m order intake should support H2’22

Max Bacco
  • Max Bacco

Christian Berner Tech - Mr. Söderqvist says farewell by beating est.

Adj. EBITA 12% above ABGSCe Strong order intake continues, up 28% y-o-y Estimates should stay intact

Max Bacco
  • Max Bacco

Christian Berner Tech - Still challenging to deliver to customers

Margins to improve q-o-q to 4.2% ’21-‘24e adj. EBITA CAGR of 24% Fair target multiple range of 9-11x ‘23e EV/EBITA

Max Bacco
  • Max Bacco

Christian Berner Tech - A fresh start

New CEO joins on 28 April, 2022 M&A activity should increase from ‘23 24% ’21-‘24e adj. EBITA CAGR

Max Bacco
  • Max Bacco

Christian Berner Tech - Orders coming in, but it’s hard to deliver

Q4 report due Thursday 24 February Strong order intake to continue in Q4… …but we expect softer sales and adj. EBITA

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