reports
- Steph Erasmus
Montauk | Trumped
On 9 Aug ‘19, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reported the approval of 31 ('18: 35) of 40 ('18: 37) 2018 small refiner exemptions (SRE) applications received. The 31 approvals granted were ahead of our predictions of c.15 2018 SRE approvals. Renewable Identification Numbers (RIN) prices declined by c.60% over the past year, which may impact Montauk. The Group derives c.85% of its revenues from the sale of renewable natural gas (RNG) from landfills. The D3 RIN price contribute...
- Steph Erasmus
Montauk | A pricing problem
The D3 renewable identification number (RIN) price has declined by c.55% since 1 Jan '19. The decline is a risk for Montauk because the Group derives c.85% of its revenues from the sale of renewable natural gas (RNG) from landfills and the D3 RIN price contributes c.87% to the price of RNG from landfills. Until the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) addresses the uncertainty surrounding the small refiner exemptions (SRE), it is improbable that the D3 RIN price will increase. We expect...
- Steph Erasmus
Montauk | Misunderstood
During FY '19, Montauk increased its market share of U.S renewable identification numbers (RINs) and renewable volume obligation (RVO) to 16.9% and 18.4% respectively. In Nov '18, the EPA published the 2019 renewable volume obligation, the 2019 D3 RIN target is 418 million gallons which represents a 45% increase over 2018. While Montauk's FY ‘19 EBITDA margin was lower at c.41.9% (Avior: 48.8%), FY '19 included once-off expenditure incurred for the proposed listing on the NASDAQ. We expect ...
1 director sold
A director at Montauk Holdings Ltd sold 56,495 shares at 46.010ZAR and the significance rating of the trade was 62/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cl...
- Steph Erasmus
MNK | A bumpy ride
Since our last report “Regulatory blissâ€, Montauk Energy's (MNK's) share price fell c.42% from ZAR86.10ps to ZAR49.99ps. While the U.S. renewable natural gas (RNG) regulatory environment remains a risk to our investment case, we believe the price drop offers an attractive entry point into MNK. We estimate the counter is trading at an 11.0x rolled forward PE (0.9 PE relative). Our DCF valuation methodology delivers a one-year target price of ZAR97.18ps, implying a total return of 97.2%. ...
- Steph Erasmus
MNK | Regulatory bliss
Last night in the U.S., Democrats won control of the House of Representatives, a victory that gives the Democrats real levers of power to have a noteworthy influence on President Donald Trump and Senate Republicans decisions. The Democrat win decreases uncertainty surrounding the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). Montauk Energy (MNK) has reduced its reliance on the RFS by expanding into Californian pipeline quality renewable natural gas (PQRNG) from dairy farms. PQRNG from Californian dairy farm...
- Steph Erasmus
Montauk Energy | Off to a flyer
Montauk Energy delivered a strong set of FY ‘18a results. Revenue increased by c.22.5% y/y to $109.1m. EBITDA increased by c.42.3% y/y to $53.3m. All of Montauk's RNG sites have agreements with terms of 15 or more years. Montauk's electrical sites which have agreements in place with terms of 10 or more years, constitute 89.8% of its total electrical sites. The current Presidential Administration has affected the stabilisation of the RIN market, resulting in price volatility and limited ...
Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report
Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind...
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