Q Tech's 2H25 results were largely in line with the profit alert, with net profit surging 623% yoy to Rmb1.2b, boosted by a Rmb903m one-off disposal gain; stripping that out, adjusted net profit of Rmb372m was still 12% above our estimates. Management guided for handset CCM shipment growth of no less than +5% yoy despite smartphone headwinds, while non-handset CCM volume is expected to register another +50% yoy growth. Maintain HOLD with target price of HK$9.70.
Top Stories Economics | Economic Activity Economic activity in 2M26 broadly surprised to the upside. Industrial production accelerated to 6.3% yoy, while retail sales recovered to 2.8% yoy. FAI ytd rebounded to 1.8% yoy, beating expectations of a contraction, supported by strong infrastructure spending and a marked improvement in property FAI ytd to −11.1% yoy. However, it remains to be seen if the rebound is sustainable, given that February’s PMI remained in contractionary territory at 49.0. ...
Greater China Economics | Economic Activity Economic activity in 2M26 broadly surprised to the upside. Industrial production accelerated to 6.3% yoy, while retail sales recovered to 2.8% yoy. FAI ytd rebounded to 1.8% yoy, beating expectations of a contraction, supported by strong infrastructure spending and a marked improvement in property FAI ytd to −11.1% yoy. However, it remains to be seen if the rebound is sustainable, as February’s PMI remained in contractionary territory at 49.0. Se...
Amid the memory chip supercycle, our estimates show that low-end/mid-range/high-end phones will see a 16.7%/12.0%/9.3% increase in BOM cost in 2026, which will be absorbed by consumers, smartphone OEMs and component suppliers. The impact will spread unevenly across the industry, but high-end phones will be less affected than others; smartphone OEMs absorbing the bulk of the costs will make component suppliers better positioned, and Apple’s supply chain will outperform Android thanks to Apple’s s...
AI infrastructure investments continue to surge, with consensus forecasts for top China/US hyperscalers growing over 10% and 20% qoq respectively. This should fuel AI server demand growth of 60% yoy by 2026. Consumer electronics remain strong, with iPhone 17 lead times far exceeding that of iPhone 16 and Android flagships set for further spec upgrades, which will support multi-year shipment growth. China’s automation and robotics markets are also recovering faster than expected, with humanoid ro...
Q Tech’s 1H25 earnings soared 168% yoy to Rmb308m, in line with the midpoint of its profit alert range. The strong print was primarily due to ASP/margin expansion across both the CCM and FRM businesses. Moving forward, we expect profitability to continue to be bolstered by Q Tech’s advancements in the premium smartphone segment and growing volume in the IoT vertical, with the auto business set to break even in 2H25. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$16.60.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Q Technology (Group) (1478 HK/BUY/HK$13.06/Target: HK$16.60) Q Tech’s 1H25 earnings soared 168% yoy to Rmb308m, in line with the midpoint of its profit alert range. The strong print was primarily due to ASP/margin expansion across both the CCM and FRM businesses. Moving forward, we expect profitability to continue to be bolstered by Q Tech’s advancements in the premium smartphone segment and growing volume in the IoT vertical, with the auto business set to break even in ...
GREATER CHINA Results Q Technology Group (1478 HK/BUY/HK$13.06/Target: HK$16.60) 1H25: Earnings in line; expect profitability to further improve. Maintain BUY. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights ESSA Industries Indonesia (ESSA IJ/NOT RATED/Rp595) Unlocking long-term value through strategic industrial upgrades. MALAYSIA Sector Plantation Inventory continues to build up due...
1H25 Profit Alert: Strong Earnings Growth Thanks To Product Mix Improvements In Q Tech’s profit alert overnight, it expected net profit to grow 150-180% yoy to Rmb288m-323m, surpassing our and market expectations. The strong results were attributed to increased sales volume for the FRM business and product mix improvements across CCM and FRM. This also indicates that the spec upgrades for smartphones across the mid-range and mid-to-high-end markets are better-thanexpected, leading to ASP/margin ...
The IT hardware sector registered corrections in share price in the past two weeks as market realised that contribution from the exciting GenAI-driven applications are unlikely to be meaningful in 2025. Nevertheless, the potential cost savings and efficiency boost facilitated by AI are clear and we expect investments into applications development to remain high. Maintain OVERWEIGHT and expect downstream AI applications to remain a key investment focus through 2025.
Q Tech’s 2024 earnings soared 241% yoy to Rmb241m, in line with estimates and the midpoint of its profit alert range. The strong performance was due to ASP and margin expansion across both the CCM and FRM businesses. In particular, FRM segment margins turned positive for the first time since 2021, thanks to an improved product mix. With a trifurcation of growth drivers in the smartphones, automotive and IoT spheres, we are upgrading to BUY with a higher target price of HK$10.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Economic Activity Industrial production growth remained resilient in 2M25, rising 5.9% yoy, beating expectations of 5.3% yoy. FAI growth jumped to 4.1% yoy (+2.0ppt), with property FAI growth improving from -10.6% yoy in Dec 24 to -9.8% yoy in 2M25. Retail sales growth also climbed to 4.0% yoy, beating expectations. Overall, 2M25’s data is market positive. Sector Property According to the latest NBS data, national sales were stronger than expected but new starts rem...
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity: Stronger-than-expected 2M25 data amid property sector challenges. Sector Property: Faster-than-expected destocking progress; higher 2025 national residential sales forecast. Initiate Coverage Kerry Properties (683 HK/BUY/HK$18.28/Target: HK$21.70): Luxury home expert; mega investment in Shanghai CBD bearing fruit from 2025. Results China Resources Building Materials Tech (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.88/Target: HK$2.30): 2024: In line; gross margin expands to 16.5%...
2024 shipment data has remained solid for both Sunny and Q Tech, with significant improvements in profitability on the back of specs upgrades and better product mix. In 2025, we expect a low-to-mid single-digit shipment growth for both companies, and a sustained product mix improvement as the specs upgrade trend extends from premium phones to lower-end (Rmb2,000-4,000) products. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Sector IT Hardware Solid 2024 Shipment Data; recovery in 2025 remains intact. Maintain OVERWEIGHT . INDONESIA Small/Mid Caps Highlights Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ/NOT RATED/Rp2,690) Strong production outlook towards 2029. MALAYSIA Sector Banking Malaysian banks are likely to take a cautious and gradual approach to capital managemen...
Our recent checks across the supply chain indicates high visibility of a specs upgrade trend in the coming two quarters, which can offset any potential moderation in shipment volume. For investors, while there are still concerns over iOS’ demand and the sustainability of this recovery cycle, interest in the smartphone supply chain is gradually improving thanks to recent launches which come with more exciting new features. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
We recently visited UBTech and BYDE in Shenzhen. Both companies are actively developing AI-driven products for industrial use cases, and both are starting to see real demand for AI-driven applications with small-batch shipments from clients or for internal uses. However, the development of humanoid robots and industrial GenAI will likely take a couple of years before it becomes more viable, due to reliability issues and constraints on hardware.
1H24 results are mixed. AI infrastructure-related businesses remain robust, with solid guidance for 2H24-25, but the market’s high expectations, mounting geopolitical tensions and a lack of long-term visibility have capped upside in the near term. As such, we continue to prefer AI-device names as we expect more meaningful developments in the edge-AI ecosystem throughout 2H24 thanks to new hardware and OS launches. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top picks: Xiaomi and Lenovo.
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade Exports rebounded in August but outlook remains challenging. Sector IT Hardware Maintain preference for the more defensive AI-device plays as uncertainty remains high. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. INDONESIA Update Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ/HOLD/Rp7,250/Target: Rp7,760) 7M24: Strong ...
Q Tech’s 1H24 earnings surged 453.9% yoy to Rmb115m, driven by a low base, and a solid recovery in shipment and margins for both the CCM and FRM businesses. Going forward, despite limited visibility, Q Tech remains confident about delivering yoy shipment growth and margin expansion, on the back of demand recovery, robust growth in non-handset products, specs upgrades, and share gains in the high-end segment. Maintain BUY and lower target price to HK$6.00.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.