1H25 Profit Alert: Strong Earnings Growth Thanks To Product Mix Improvements In Q Tech’s profit alert overnight, it expected net profit to grow 150-180% yoy to Rmb288m-323m, surpassing our and market expectations. The strong results were attributed to increased sales volume for the FRM business and product mix improvements across CCM and FRM. This also indicates that the spec upgrades for smartphones across the mid-range and mid-to-high-end markets are better-thanexpected, leading to ASP/margin ...
The IT hardware sector registered corrections in share price in the past two weeks as market realised that contribution from the exciting GenAI-driven applications are unlikely to be meaningful in 2025. Nevertheless, the potential cost savings and efficiency boost facilitated by AI are clear and we expect investments into applications development to remain high. Maintain OVERWEIGHT and expect downstream AI applications to remain a key investment focus through 2025.
Q Tech’s 2024 earnings soared 241% yoy to Rmb241m, in line with estimates and the midpoint of its profit alert range. The strong performance was due to ASP and margin expansion across both the CCM and FRM businesses. In particular, FRM segment margins turned positive for the first time since 2021, thanks to an improved product mix. With a trifurcation of growth drivers in the smartphones, automotive and IoT spheres, we are upgrading to BUY with a higher target price of HK$10.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Economic Activity Industrial production growth remained resilient in 2M25, rising 5.9% yoy, beating expectations of 5.3% yoy. FAI growth jumped to 4.1% yoy (+2.0ppt), with property FAI growth improving from -10.6% yoy in Dec 24 to -9.8% yoy in 2M25. Retail sales growth also climbed to 4.0% yoy, beating expectations. Overall, 2M25’s data is market positive. Sector Property According to the latest NBS data, national sales were stronger than expected but new starts rem...
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity: Stronger-than-expected 2M25 data amid property sector challenges. Sector Property: Faster-than-expected destocking progress; higher 2025 national residential sales forecast. Initiate Coverage Kerry Properties (683 HK/BUY/HK$18.28/Target: HK$21.70): Luxury home expert; mega investment in Shanghai CBD bearing fruit from 2025. Results China Resources Building Materials Tech (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.88/Target: HK$2.30): 2024: In line; gross margin expands to 16.5%...
2024 shipment data has remained solid for both Sunny and Q Tech, with significant improvements in profitability on the back of specs upgrades and better product mix. In 2025, we expect a low-to-mid single-digit shipment growth for both companies, and a sustained product mix improvement as the specs upgrade trend extends from premium phones to lower-end (Rmb2,000-4,000) products. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Sector IT Hardware Solid 2024 Shipment Data; recovery in 2025 remains intact. Maintain OVERWEIGHT . INDONESIA Small/Mid Caps Highlights Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ/NOT RATED/Rp2,690) Strong production outlook towards 2029. MALAYSIA Sector Banking Malaysian banks are likely to take a cautious and gradual approach to capital managemen...
Our recent checks across the supply chain indicates high visibility of a specs upgrade trend in the coming two quarters, which can offset any potential moderation in shipment volume. For investors, while there are still concerns over iOS’ demand and the sustainability of this recovery cycle, interest in the smartphone supply chain is gradually improving thanks to recent launches which come with more exciting new features. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
We recently visited UBTech and BYDE in Shenzhen. Both companies are actively developing AI-driven products for industrial use cases, and both are starting to see real demand for AI-driven applications with small-batch shipments from clients or for internal uses. However, the development of humanoid robots and industrial GenAI will likely take a couple of years before it becomes more viable, due to reliability issues and constraints on hardware.
1H24 results are mixed. AI infrastructure-related businesses remain robust, with solid guidance for 2H24-25, but the market’s high expectations, mounting geopolitical tensions and a lack of long-term visibility have capped upside in the near term. As such, we continue to prefer AI-device names as we expect more meaningful developments in the edge-AI ecosystem throughout 2H24 thanks to new hardware and OS launches. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top picks: Xiaomi and Lenovo.
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade Exports rebounded in August but outlook remains challenging. Sector IT Hardware Maintain preference for the more defensive AI-device plays as uncertainty remains high. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. INDONESIA Update Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ/HOLD/Rp7,250/Target: Rp7,760) 7M24: Strong ...
Q Tech’s 1H24 earnings surged 453.9% yoy to Rmb115m, driven by a low base, and a solid recovery in shipment and margins for both the CCM and FRM businesses. Going forward, despite limited visibility, Q Tech remains confident about delivering yoy shipment growth and margin expansion, on the back of demand recovery, robust growth in non-handset products, specs upgrades, and share gains in the high-end segment. Maintain BUY and lower target price to HK$6.00.
GREATER CHINA Results KE Holdings Inc (2423 HK/BUY/HK$35.85/Target: HK$53.00) 2Q24: Solid earnings beat; new home recovery and pressured margins in 3Q24. Q Technology Group (1478 HK/BUY/HK$4.05/Target: HK$6.00) 1H24: Earnings at midpoint of profit alert; handset business recovering gradually. INDONESIA Results Dayamitra Telekomunikasi (MTEL IJ/BUY/Rp675/Target: Rp790) 2Q24: Core profit up 29% yoy; accelerating the expansion of fibre optic n...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results KE Holdings Inc (2423 HK/BUY/HK$35.85/Target: HK$53.00) Beike’s 2Q24 results beat expectations. 2Q24 revenue grew 20% yoy to Rmb23.4b, 8.5% above consensus estimates and better than the previously guided 10% yoy. Non-GAAP net profit rose 13% yoy to Rmb2.7b due to stringent cost control, 48% above consensus estimates. Non-GAAP net margin inched down 1ppt yoy to 11.5% in 2Q24. Beike guided for 3Q24 revenue to remain intact at Rmb22.5b-24.0b, up 26-35% yoy, in line with c...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector IT Hardware: AI investments to remain elevated but edge AI plays are more attractive. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. We are shifting our preference to edge AI picks, as we see an improved visibility on the recovery in global smartphone and PC shipment in 2H24. With this, coupled with the pick-up in AI device shipment towards year-end and a more undemanding valuation, we expect edge AI plays to outperform the AI infrastructure supply chain, which is now under pressure from profit-tak...
We are shifting our preference to edge AI picks, as we see an improved visibility on the recovery in global smartphone and PC shipment in 2H24. With this, coupled with the pick-up in AI device shipment towards year-end and a more undemanding valuation, we expect edge AI plays to outperform the AI infrastructure supply chain, which is now under pressure from profit-taking, and mounting geopolitical risks. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top picks: Lenovo and BYDE.
Q Tech announced a profit alert overnight, expecting net profit to grow 400-500% yoy to Rmb108m-130m, surpassing our and market expectations. The strong results were likely driven by solid shipment numbers and a better-than-expected profit mix. This likely indicates that the handset value chain is well on track for a recovery in both shipment and profitability. Upgrade Q Tech to BUY and raise target price to HK$6.50.
Q Tech’s 2023 earnings plunged 52% yoy to Rmb82m, below its profit warning range of a 35-45% yoy decline. The decline was due to poor global smartphone demand in 2023 and unfavourable forex rates, while the disappointment was due to non-core items. Nevertheless, its margins still outperformed its peers in 2H23, and the worst is likely over, as top- and bottom lines should resume growth in 2024. Maintain HOLD for now and keep target price at HK$3.30.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results ENN Energy Holdings (2688 HK/HOLD/HK$61.45/Target: HK$69.21) 2023: In line; challenging path ahead. Downgrade to HOLD. Jiumaojiu International Holdings (9922 HK/BUY/HK$5.60/Target: HK$8.20) 2023: Results in line; store opening and SSSG to decelerate in 2024. Q Technology Group (1478 HK/HOLD/ HK$3.03/Target: HK$3.30) 2023: Earnings miss due to non core items, but the worst is over. Sinopharm Group (1099 HK/BUY/HK$20.40/Target: HK$25.00) 2023: Results in line; expe...
GREATER CHINA Results ENN Energy Holdings (2688 HK/HOLD/HK$61.45/Target: HK$69.21): 2023: In line; challenging path ahead. Downgrade to HOLD. Jiumaojiu International Holdings (9922 HK/BUY/HK$5.60/Target: HK$8.20): 2023: Results in line; store opening and SSSG to decelerate in 2024. Q Technology Group (1478 HK/HOLD/ HK$3.03/Target: HK$3.30): 2023: Earnings miss due to non core items, but the worst is over. Sinopharm Group (1099 HK/BUY/HK$20.40/Target: HK$25.00): 2023: Results in line; expecting s...
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