Share price +28% last 3M with room for more

B2Impact (Buy, TP: NOK11.00) - Set for Q4 investment ramp-up

Q3 cash EBITDA was down 13% YOY, as reduced secured collections and normalised REO sales offset lower opex and stronger unsecured collections. With an improved capital structure, the company is preparing to step up investments in Q4, reiterating its NOK2.5bn–3.0bn investment guidance for 2024. We have made limited EPS revisions for 2025–2026e, and reiterate our BUY and NOK11 target price.

Soft cash-EBITDA, strong opex beat

Over-collection continues: unsecure (108%), secured (133%) & sale; Cash EBITDA of NOK 1,012m, -3% vs ABG and -7% vs cons; Stock down 2-4% (inv./ERC), as cons est rev. 2-4% (ERC/inv)

Refinancing pays off

Q3: Strong collection, EO DPS & CEO chg

B2Impact (Buy, TP: NOK11.00) - Set for improved funding costs

We forecast Q3 EBITDA of NOK345m, down 12% YOY due to a continued drop in secured collections following several years of limited secured portfolio purchases together with more normalised revenue from JVs and REO sales. Despite falling interest rates and improved cost efficiency, we expect negative PTP due to a sizeable one-off cost related to the early call of a 2026 bond. However, on our expectation of improved funding costs, we have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 3–4%, and our target price to NO...

B2Impact (Buy, TP: NOK10.70) - Eyeing higher investments

Collections on unsecured portfolios well above the guidance and a NOK167m one-off gain from the sale of the discontinued Polish loan receivables business supported Q2 PTP. As well as aiming for higher YOY dividends, management guided for increased NPL investment appetite beyond 2024, supported by its strong leverage position. We reiterate our BUY and NOK10.7 target price, having raised our 2025–2026e EPS by ~2%.

Solid collection and ready for more NPL's

Better collection and disciplined investments

Over-collection continues: unsecure (111%), secured (155%) & sale; Cash EBITDA of NOK 1,325m beat us and cons by 23-20% (sale); Share up 2-6% today, cons cash EBITDA moderate down (ERC)

B2Impact (Buy, TP: NOK10.70) - Set for investment uptick in H2

We expect a 17% decline YOY in Q2 EBITDA, largely explained by more normalised secured collections and amortisation rates. We see unsecured collections remaining solid, as in recent quarters, and seasonally strong investment volumes QOQ. We expect total portfolio investments to remain measured, and on course to meet the full-year guidance of NOK2.5bn–3.0bn, and have made limited changes to our 2025–2026e EPS. We reiterate our BUY and NOK10.7 target price.

Ready to increase its too low leverage

Over collection expected from increased legal costs. Cash EBITDA down 5% for 2024e-25e on ERC. Ready to invest more and increase its too low leverage. BUY.

B2Impact (Buy, TP: NOK10.70) - Strong collection performance

Q1 PTP increased by 3% YOY, following a long-awaited drop in financial costs, largely on improved funding margins and a lower debt base. Collection performance remained solid, with unsecured collections at 105% of management’s forecast, and a positive revaluation after “sustained overperformance”. The company reiterated its disciplined investment outlook, along with its guidance of lower run-rate financing costs, prompting us to raise our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–2%. We reiterate our BUY and have rai...

Overcollection blured by high legal costs

B2Impact (Buy, TP: NOK10.50) - Improved funding outlook

We expect strong unsecured collections in Q1, building on 10% higher unsecured ERC YOY, which should offset the gradual decline in the secured segment. Interest rates have started to flatten in recent months, which, together with bond refinancing at favourable terms, should ease earnings pressure. We have made limited 2025–2026e EPS changes, and reiterate our BUY and NOK10.5 target price.

B2Impact (Buy, TP: NOK10.50) - Strong cash quarter

The Q4 report was strong, yet mostly pre-announced, with cash metrics significantly affected by the closing of a ~NOK500m secured claim in Croatia. PTP was 5% stronger YOY, as increased unsecured ERC and collections offset the strong YOY increase in financial expenses. Having reduced overall funding costs by 0.5%-points after a series of market actions, management aims to reduce overall interest expenses further in 2024, prompting us to raise our 2024–2025e EPS by 1–3%. We reiterate our BUY and ...

B2Impact (Buy, TP: NOK10.50) - Well positioned for growth

We forecast Q4 PTP of NOK86m, 8% higher YOY, helped by higher investment levels and solid collection performance, offsetting increased funding costs. Several key items for Q4 have been reported, including a ~NOK500m impact from a large recovery in Croatia. We have raised our 2025e EPS by ~5% on improved funding costs following the recent bond issue. We reiterate our BUY and NOK10.5 target price ahead of the Q4 results due at 07:00 CET on 2 February.

B2Impact (Buy, TP: NOK10.50) - Strong cash generation

Increased funding costs and non-recurring items offset much of the positive collection momentum in Q3, as PTP was meaningfully lower YOY. Although invested and committed volumes YTD are approaching the 2023 guidance of NOK2.5bn–3bn, portfolio prices have yet to reflect the sharp rise in market interest rates, limiting the investment pace somewhat. We have reduced our 2024–2025e EPS by ~1–4%, but reiterate our BUY and NOK10.5 target price, as we continue to find the investment case attractive at ...

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B2Holding (Buy, TP: NOK10.50) - Limited near-term financing risk

B2Holding reported Q2 PTP of NOK210m, up 5% YOY when adjusting for non-recurring items in Q2 2022. Strong collections and a weakening NOK helped offset the sharp rise in funding costs YOY. The market for NPL portfolios continues to improve, and management reiterated its NOK2.5bn–3bn investment target for 2023. Near-term financing risk has been addressed by partially extending the RCF maturity to 2025. We have raised our 2023–2025e EPS by 1–3%, and reiterate our BUY and NOK10.5 target price.

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