B2Impact (Buy, TP: NOK10.50) - Strong cash quarter

The Q4 report was strong, yet mostly pre-announced, with cash metrics significantly affected by the closing of a ~NOK500m secured claim in Croatia. PTP was 5% stronger YOY, as increased unsecured ERC and collections offset the strong YOY increase in financial expenses. Having reduced overall funding costs by 0.5%-points after a series of market actions, management aims to reduce overall interest expenses further in 2024, prompting us to raise our 2024–2025e EPS by 1–3%. We reiterate our BUY and ...

B2Impact (Buy, TP: NOK10.50) - Well positioned for growth

We forecast Q4 PTP of NOK86m, 8% higher YOY, helped by higher investment levels and solid collection performance, offsetting increased funding costs. Several key items for Q4 have been reported, including a ~NOK500m impact from a large recovery in Croatia. We have raised our 2025e EPS by ~5% on improved funding costs following the recent bond issue. We reiterate our BUY and NOK10.5 target price ahead of the Q4 results due at 07:00 CET on 2 February.

B2Impact (Buy, TP: NOK10.50) - Strong cash generation

Increased funding costs and non-recurring items offset much of the positive collection momentum in Q3, as PTP was meaningfully lower YOY. Although invested and committed volumes YTD are approaching the 2023 guidance of NOK2.5bn–3bn, portfolio prices have yet to reflect the sharp rise in market interest rates, limiting the investment pace somewhat. We have reduced our 2024–2025e EPS by ~1–4%, but reiterate our BUY and NOK10.5 target price, as we continue to find the investment case attractive at ...

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B2Holding (Buy, TP: NOK10.50) - Limited near-term financing risk

B2Holding reported Q2 PTP of NOK210m, up 5% YOY when adjusting for non-recurring items in Q2 2022. Strong collections and a weakening NOK helped offset the sharp rise in funding costs YOY. The market for NPL portfolios continues to improve, and management reiterated its NOK2.5bn–3bn investment target for 2023. Near-term financing risk has been addressed by partially extending the RCF maturity to 2025. We have raised our 2023–2025e EPS by 1–3%, and reiterate our BUY and NOK10.5 target price.

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B2Holding (Buy, TP: NOK10.50) - Modest investment pace

We forecast Q2 pre-tax profit of NOK150m (32% lower YOY when adjusted for the non-recurring items related to Bulgaria in Q2 2022), primarily due to the sharp rise in funding costs YOY. As the ~3.8%-point YOY increase in the EURIBOR3M has yet to lead to meaningfully lower NPL portfolio prices, we continue to expect 2023 investments in line with 2022. We have cut our 2024–2025e EPS by ~8% as increased funding costs partly offset the positive FX effect on collections. With the stock trading at a 20...

B2Holding (Buy, TP: NOK12.00) - Increased funding costs

Q1 PTP was NOK117m, down 6% YOY, with the sharp rise in interest rates continuing to offset a strong collection performance and growth in ERC. Gross collections of NOK1,296m were up 13% YOY as a weakening NOK and strong 2022 investments helped ERC grow by 22%. Management continues to expect NOK2.5bn–3.0bn in portfolio investments for 2023. With the EURIBOR3M approaching 3.4%, we expect elevated financial expenses, partly offsetting the positive collection momentum. We have cut our 2024–2025e EPS...

B2Holding (Buy, TP: NOK12.00) - Set for solid collections

We forecast Q1 cash EBITDA of NOK1,037m, up 11% YOY, with the positive trend in collections set to continue from 2022 and favourable FX movements supporting collection performance. We forecast an ERC of NOK23bn, up 6% QOQ. With NOK435m in portfolios already closed in Q1, we expect to see further investments of NOK2.6bn in 2023. Despite the collection uplift, we have cut our 2024e EPS by 14% on the outlook for higher funding costs. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK12 (12....

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B2Holding (Buy, TP: NOK12.50) - A gradual return to growth

B2Holding reported a solid Q4, although most key figures had been pre-announced. Strong collections in Q4 had a positive cash effect, leading to cash collection of NOK1,458m, up 10% YOY. ERC grew strongly for the first time in several quarters, as investment momentum continued. The board proposed NOK0.62/share in a total shareholder consideration for 2022, consisting of a NOK0.42/share buyback programme and NOK0.20 DPS. We have lowered our 2024e EPS by 4%, and reiterate our BUY and NOK12.5 targe...

B2Holding (Buy, TP: NOK12.50) - Strong cash earnings

B2Holding (B2H NO, Buy) - Strong cash earnings (12 pages)

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B2Holding - Another quarter with solid collection

Beat vs. cons. and ABGSCe on REOs and lower costs Cash EBITDA ‘22e and ‘24e +1%, -2% ‘23e TP to NOK 13 (12.5) on positive cash EPS revisions

B2Holding (Buy, TP: NOK13.50) - Cashing in on REOs

Q3 pre-tax profit fell 12% YOY to NOK185m as rising interest rates and restructuring costs weighed on earnings. Cash EBITDA continued to benefit from REO sales at above book values, and we expect a further boost to cash earnings in Q4 from sales completed during Q3. We have raised our 2023–2024 EPS by c1% on the back of the Q3 report. We reiterate our BUY and target price of NOK13.5.

B2Holding - Beat vs. consensus on cash-EBITDA and EPS

Q3: Strong cash-EBITDA, +1% vs ABGSCe, +4% vs cons …driven by strong REO sales and cost-to-collect Share could move +3-5% today, cons EPS +0-3%

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B2Holding - Expect stable collection performance

We expect cash-EBITDA of NOK 963m, +1% q-o-q Adj. EPS ‘23e-‘24e down ~11% on higher financial costs Trading at P/BV’22e 0.6x, 38% discount to hist. average

B2Holding (Buy, TP: NOK13.50) - Unchallenging valuation

We forecast a c1% YOY increase in cash EBITDA in Q3 (report due at 07:00 CET on 10 November), driven by continued strong real estate-owned (REO) sales and a good collection performance. Following an active Q2, we expect the seasonally slower Q3 to lead to somewhat softer collections QOQ, although strong investment momentum and FX is set to lift estimated remaining collections (ERC), supporting future top-line growth. We reiterate our BUY and NOK13.5 target price.

B2Holding - Solid Q2 with strong market momentum

Strong collection, EPS blurred by non-cash imp. loss ‘22e-‘24e cash-EBITDA +2-4%, EPS down on financials Positive estimate revisions and attractive valuation: BUY