Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK48.00) - Focus on Vyepti sales

We forecast Q1 sales c0.5% above consensus and an adj. EBITDA margin of 31.3%. We expect the strategic brands sales to rise by 18.3% YOY, including Vyepti sales of DKK913m (c2.2% above consensus). We forecast unchanged 2025 guidance for CER figures. From the pipeline, the FDA AdCom for Rexulti in PTSD is still unscheduled and the PROCEED trial has recently been expanded to additional IV doses. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to 48 (56).

Sustainable high dividends and investments

Expect a high 60% total yield until '27e

B2Impact (Buy, TP: NOK12.00) - Supportive distribution outlook

Despite pressure on earnings from one-off costs in Q4, B2 Impact continues to report collection performance comfortably above 100%, while targeting a further ramp-up of NPL investments in 2025. We believe the aim of keeping DPS at NOK1.50 for 2025 supports our investment case, with the stock trading at a 2026e P/ B of ~0.7x. We have made limited EPS revisions for 2025–2026e, reiterating our BUY and NOK12 target price.

Secured miss, but solid dividends

Over-collection in unsecured (110%), under in secured (89%); Cash EBITDA of NOK 933m, -11% vs ABG and -9% vs cons (secured); Stock up 1-4% (inv./DPS), as cons est rev. 0-2% (Inv/fin)

Expect solid dividends going forward

Expect cash EBITDA of NOK 1.04bn; Refinancing leaves room for much higher dividends; High dividends, low leverage, attractive multiples, what's not to like?

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - PTSD decision getting closer

Lundbeck reached the high-end of its full-year guidance, with Q4 sales of DKK5,541m and an adj. EBITDA margin of 20.8%. Strategic brands’ Q4 sales were slightly below our forecast and consensus, with only Brintellix beating our estimate. The 2025 guidance is for sales growth of 7–10% at constant exchange rates (CER) and adj. EBITDA growth of 5–11% at CER. We view the upcoming Rexulti PTSD FDA Advisory Committee Meeting (due in H1) as the next share-price catalyst. We reiterate our BUY and DKK56 ...

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - Solid Q4e; PTSD decision ahead

We forecast Q4 sales of DKK5,631m (consensus DKK5,629m) and adj. EBITDA of DKK1,155m (consensus DKK1,147m). For strategic brands, we estimate sales of DKK4,493m (c1.1% above consensus). We expect 2025 guidance for growth of CER sales of 3–6% and adj. EBITDA of 3–7%. We believe investor focus will be on the upcoming Rexulti PTSD FDA Advisory Committee Meeting (ADCOM), due in H1. We reiterate our BUY and DKK56 target price.

B2Impact (Buy, TP: NOK12.00) - Room for considerable payouts

Helped by solid unsecured collection performance and a growing ERC book, we see NPL revenue up 4% YOY, while earnings could receive further support through a continued drop in funding cost YOY. The portfolio acquisition announced in December of ~EUR100m is expected to close in Q1, supporting growth in ERC and collections. For Q4, we expect the board to propose a DPS of NOK1.50. We highlight the limited funding risk and outlook for high shareholder distributions, and have raised our target price ...

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - Focusing on strategic brands

The Q3 sales beat reflected a strong result in strategic brands, leading to an outperformance on adj. EBITDA. We expect continued momentum in strategic brands, with Q4e sales growth of 17.4% YOY. The 2024 guidance was narrowed for CER revenue growth of 12–14% (previously 11–14%) and CER adj. EBITDA growth of 17–20% (15–20%) and we find the top end of the guidance reachable. We reiterate our BUY and DKK56 target price.

Share price +28% last 3M with room for more

B2Impact (Buy, TP: NOK11.00) - Set for Q4 investment ramp-up

Q3 cash EBITDA was down 13% YOY, as reduced secured collections and normalised REO sales offset lower opex and stronger unsecured collections. With an improved capital structure, the company is preparing to step up investments in Q4, reiterating its NOK2.5bn–3.0bn investment guidance for 2024. We have made limited EPS revisions for 2025–2026e, and reiterate our BUY and NOK11 target price.

Soft cash-EBITDA, strong opex beat

Over-collection continues: unsecure (108%), secured (133%) & sale; Cash EBITDA of NOK 1,012m, -3% vs ABG and -7% vs cons; Stock down 2-4% (inv./ERC), as cons est rev. 2-4% (ERC/inv)

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - Strategic brands in focus

Lundbeck recently released company consensus for Q3. Our revenue forecast of DKK5,502m is c0.5% above, driven by strategic brands (we estimate 21.6% revenue growth YOY), and we forecast an adj. EBITDA margin of 29.4% (consensus 28.9%). We expect the 2024 guidance for 11–14% revenue growth and 15–20% adj. EBITDA growth at CER to be unchanged. We reiterate our BUY and DKK56 target price.

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - New adj. EBITDA margin target

At its CMD, Lundbeck extended its financial targets to include 2027, revised its adj. EBITDA margin target to 30%+, and guided for peak sales of cDKK9bn for Vyepti and USD1.3bn+ for Rexulti. Lundbeck provided an update on its proposed acquisition of Longboard Pharmaceuticals and R&D. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK56 (55).

Refinancing pays off

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK55.00) - Executing on M&A agenda

Ahead of the CMD due on 23 October, Lundbeck today announced the intention to acquire Longboard Pharmaceuticals for USD2.5bn, and its late-stage asset bexicaserin for the treatment of Developmental and Epileptic Encephalopathies (DEEs). We view the proposed acquisition as neutral, but believe Lundbeck’s M&A track record is better than the market perceives. We reiterate our BUY, but have raised our target price to DKK55 (52) on a greater Vyepti sales potential.

Q3: Strong collection, EO DPS & CEO chg

B2Impact (Buy, TP: NOK11.00) - Set for improved funding costs

We forecast Q3 EBITDA of NOK345m, down 12% YOY due to a continued drop in secured collections following several years of limited secured portfolio purchases together with more normalised revenue from JVs and REO sales. Despite falling interest rates and improved cost efficiency, we expect negative PTP due to a sizeable one-off cost related to the early call of a 2026 bond. However, on our expectation of improved funding costs, we have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 3–4%, and our target price to NO...

B2Impact (Buy, TP: NOK10.70) - Eyeing higher investments

Collections on unsecured portfolios well above the guidance and a NOK167m one-off gain from the sale of the discontinued Polish loan receivables business supported Q2 PTP. As well as aiming for higher YOY dividends, management guided for increased NPL investment appetite beyond 2024, supported by its strong leverage position. We reiterate our BUY and NOK10.7 target price, having raised our 2025–2026e EPS by ~2%.