Longer-term story intact

Underlying in line, reported hit by one-offs

One hot, one not

'26 ÖoB weaker

EBIT -3% vs cons on a small GM / Opex miss. Sales better. ÖoB below and do not expect EBIT improvement in '26. Unchanged '26 EBIT in ÖoB yoy will take cons '26 EBIT down 6-7%.

Strong YTD re-rating, with room for more

Solid Q3 expected

Time to collect (dividends)

Up its investment & DPS guidance

Strong core, Swede needs more

Better on higher sales

EBIT +18% vs cons on 3% better sales. ÖoB better than cons and celar q-o-q improvement

Stable ground, numbers on track

Strong collection set to continue

Solid secured and unsecured collection

Over-collection in both unsecured (109%) and secured (~200%); Cash EBITDA of NOK 975m, +2% vs ABG and +1% vs cons; Stock flat to just up; Cons est rev. minor (ERC neg vs collection pos)

Needs to lock in 2026

Offshore Drilling (DNB Markets) (, ) - (39 pages)

Seadrill (Buy, TP: USD35.00) - Countdown to 2027

Despite a tough deepwater market, on our estimates, Seadrill is trading at a c4x EV/EBITDA for 2025–2026e, falling to 2.8x for 2027e (with our 2026–2027e EBITDA 21–23% below consensus). We see limited cash flow yield potential near-term, rising to c15% for 2027e. Tier-2 rig challenges have been a key investor concern, and while we model only a small contribution from these rigs (7–5% of our 2026–2027e EBITDA). We estimate c50% upside potential on asset values even in a scenario where we assign z...

Sustainable high dividends and investments

Another round of Aramco suspensions expected

Market sources suggest Saudi Aramco will further reduce its rig count in the coming months through early contract terminations and potentially more suspensions, which would mark the ‘fourth round’ of rig reductions. This follows last month’s request for dayrate discussions (historically, such requests have preceded it suspending rigs). We believe this round could be extensive, affecting c10 jackups out of its current rig count of c57 rigs. At the peak, Aramco had 92 jackups (22% of global demand...

Muted 2025 growth expectations

Following Q1 earnings calls by some of the oil service companies, 2025 outlooks appear more challenging than previously. Baker Hughes expects international upstream spending to decline by mid- to high-single digits, while Halliburton sees its international revenues flat to slightly down. Furthermore, Weatherford expects 2025 international revenue to decline by low double- to mid-double digits. Precision Drilling flagged additional rig suspensions by Saudi Aramco, and SLB highlighted a slow start...

ENI capex cut but maintains shareholder returns

Driven by macro headwinds and uncertainty around trade tariffs, ENI was the first large oil company to introduce capex cuts for 2025, contributing to a more challenging business environment for oil services. Over the past five years, we estimate ENI to have been the oil major with strongest offshore spending growth, and it has been considered active and opportunistic while others have been more conservative. Hence, we see its reduction as a soft datapoint for oil services. ENI has optimised its ...

Welcomed tender from Petrobras

Updates suggest Petrobras yesterday launched a new tender for “one or more” deepwater rigs for the Buzios field starting late-2026/early-2027. As it has been a while since the last Petrobras tender, and there has been uncertainty related to the timing of upcoming tenders, we believe a new Petrobras tender would offer relief for investors. As we count nine rigs already contracted with Petrobras to match the start-up window, we expect the requirement would be filled by rigs already in the country,...