Solid Q3 expected

Time to collect (dividends)

Up its investment & DPS guidance

Strong core, Swede needs more

Better on higher sales

EBIT +18% vs cons on 3% better sales. ÖoB better than cons and celar q-o-q improvement

Stable ground, numbers on track

Strong collection set to continue

Solid secured and unsecured collection

Over-collection in both unsecured (109%) and secured (~200%); Cash EBITDA of NOK 975m, +2% vs ABG and +1% vs cons; Stock flat to just up; Cons est rev. minor (ERC neg vs collection pos)

Needs to lock in 2026

Offshore Drilling (DNB Markets) (, ) - (39 pages)

Seadrill (Buy, TP: USD35.00) - Countdown to 2027

Despite a tough deepwater market, on our estimates, Seadrill is trading at a c4x EV/EBITDA for 2025–2026e, falling to 2.8x for 2027e (with our 2026–2027e EBITDA 21–23% below consensus). We see limited cash flow yield potential near-term, rising to c15% for 2027e. Tier-2 rig challenges have been a key investor concern, and while we model only a small contribution from these rigs (7–5% of our 2026–2027e EBITDA). We estimate c50% upside potential on asset values even in a scenario where we assign z...

Sustainable high dividends and investments

Another round of Aramco suspensions expected

Market sources suggest Saudi Aramco will further reduce its rig count in the coming months through early contract terminations and potentially more suspensions, which would mark the ‘fourth round’ of rig reductions. This follows last month’s request for dayrate discussions (historically, such requests have preceded it suspending rigs). We believe this round could be extensive, affecting c10 jackups out of its current rig count of c57 rigs. At the peak, Aramco had 92 jackups (22% of global demand...

Muted 2025 growth expectations

Following Q1 earnings calls by some of the oil service companies, 2025 outlooks appear more challenging than previously. Baker Hughes expects international upstream spending to decline by mid- to high-single digits, while Halliburton sees its international revenues flat to slightly down. Furthermore, Weatherford expects 2025 international revenue to decline by low double- to mid-double digits. Precision Drilling flagged additional rig suspensions by Saudi Aramco, and SLB highlighted a slow start...

ENI capex cut but maintains shareholder returns

Driven by macro headwinds and uncertainty around trade tariffs, ENI was the first large oil company to introduce capex cuts for 2025, contributing to a more challenging business environment for oil services. Over the past five years, we estimate ENI to have been the oil major with strongest offshore spending growth, and it has been considered active and opportunistic while others have been more conservative. Hence, we see its reduction as a soft datapoint for oil services. ENI has optimised its ...

Welcomed tender from Petrobras

Updates suggest Petrobras yesterday launched a new tender for “one or more” deepwater rigs for the Buzios field starting late-2026/early-2027. As it has been a while since the last Petrobras tender, and there has been uncertainty related to the timing of upcoming tenders, we believe a new Petrobras tender would offer relief for investors. As we count nine rigs already contracted with Petrobras to match the start-up window, we expect the requirement would be filled by rigs already in the country,...

Looking at required day-rates

Although there are several ongoing deepwater tenders, the lack of recent deepwater fixtures has created uncertainty among investors related to day-rates. Consequently, we have analysed the required day-rates to support current share prices and valuations. Given the high operating leverage and multiple variables involved (utilisation, lifetime and cost of capital), we estimate the sector requires 7G drillship day-rates from the mid-USD300k and above to support the current share prices.

Europris (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Well-equipped for a harsher climate

Q1 earnings were below expectations, partly due to negative currency hedging effects in Norway and Sweden, and continued weakness in Sweden. However, we believe Europris is well-positioned for the current market climate and expect a successful turnaround in Sweden by 2028. We reiterate our BUY as we continue to find the valuation attractive, but have cut our target price to NOK90 (95) on lowered estimates.

Sweden fuels the unknown

EBIT below driven by SWE and GP

EBIT -37m vs cons +6m on lower sales in SWE and lower group gross profit. Gross profit hit by unrealized FX as the NOK has strengthened.

Built for resilience