NRC Group ASA: 1 director

A director at NRC Group ASA bought 120,000 shares at 6.000NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 71/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

Orders picking up

Improvements in Norway and Sweden

Strong collection set to continue

Q1'25: no signs of commercial inflection

Solid secured and unsecured collection

Over-collection in both unsecured (109%) and secured (~200%); Cash EBITDA of NOK 975m, +2% vs ABG and +1% vs cons; Stock flat to just up; Cons est rev. minor (ERC neg vs collection pos)

Sustainable high dividends and investments

Finland lags behind

Humana (Buy, TP: SEK52.00) - Growth agenda back in focus

The Q1 results were mixed, but with the financials now in good order, we see more of a growth focus ahead. We find management’s priorities logical, with our underlying forecast largely unchanged, but our 2025–2027e EPS cut by 6–2% on FX and non-cash items. We reiterate our BUY, but have trimmed our target price to SEK52 (53), focusing on Humana’s market opportunity, operating profile, financial outlook and valuation.

Slight miss on adj. EBIT

Important year coming up

Positive Easter effect

Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations

Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK2.00) - Softer-than-expected earnings

Although Q4 earnings were weaker than we expected, operating expenses were higher (partly due to borderline one-off costs; R&D-related for an EMA facility inspection). We have lowered our sales forecasts for Pepaxti in Europe. However, we believe 2025 will be important for the company, as sales should start to ramp up in Italy and Spain. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to SEK2.0 (2.5).

Q4 report: weak upward trend

Expect a high 60% total yield until '27e

B2Impact (Buy, TP: NOK12.00) - Supportive distribution outlook

Despite pressure on earnings from one-off costs in Q4, B2 Impact continues to report collection performance comfortably above 100%, while targeting a further ramp-up of NPL investments in 2025. We believe the aim of keeping DPS at NOK1.50 for 2025 supports our investment case, with the stock trading at a 2026e P/ B of ~0.7x. We have made limited EPS revisions for 2025–2026e, reiterating our BUY and NOK12 target price.

Secured miss, but solid dividends

Over-collection in unsecured (110%), under in secured (89%); Cash EBITDA of NOK 933m, -11% vs ABG and -9% vs cons (secured); Stock up 1-4% (inv./DPS), as cons est rev. 0-2% (Inv/fin)

Some early signs of improvement

NRC Group (Hold, TP: NOK4.50) - Results will speak for themselves

With its weaker-than-expected Q4, NRC Group reiterated its 2025 guidance for revenue of NOK7bn and an adj. EBIT margin above 2%. However, as the company has missed its revenue guidance and EBIT margin targets for seven years in a row (2018–2024), we await evidence of an EBIT margin recovery. We remain cautious, and believe NRC is a high-risk/high-reward investment case, with ample upside potential should it reach its EBIT margin targets. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to NO...