EME Equity Market – May 2024 Turkish equities lead, in the mostly green month of May. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in LCU terms in May. The Turkish ISE30 index reported the strongest performance, adding 3.6% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Czech PX (+2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Hungarian BUX index and the Polish WIG20 remained broadly flat (+0.4% and +0.2% mom in EUR terms, respectively); although, in LCU terms,...
HEADLINES: • Bank of Cyprus: keep calm and return capital (stays BUY) • Migros: weak operating results in 1Q24 NEGATIVE • Pepco Group: 1H24 beat on gross margin; slow start to 3Q and cautious FY EBITDA guidance POSITIVE • 11 bit studios: 1Q24 adjusted EBITDA slightly above our forecast, but a touch below the consensus NEUTRAL • Colt CZ Group SE: weak 1Q24 results, but FY24E guidance reiterated NEGATIVE • Türkiye macro: CBT on hold, with a hawkish demeanour • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from th...
We still like Bank of Cyprus (BOCH). Despite the lack of growth, we estimate that it might achieve a 20% CET1 (17.4% in 4Q23) and a >12% ROTE (23% in 2023) in 2026E, where the 500bps of excess capital understates the earnings power in our forecasts. Even without special dividends, which might be possible due to the mismatch between growth plans and capital, we believe that BOCH is still compelling, as long as it stays broadly on track with its capital return plans. Our new price target (PT) is G...
HEADLINES: • Georgia Capital: announces two new buyback programmes POSITIVE • HELLENiQ Energy: 1Q24 results – mildly above expectations POSITIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: bottom-line miss and further margin compression in the 1Q24 results NEGATIVE • Bank of Cyprus: 1Q24 highlights POSITIVE • Alpha Services and Holdings: 1Q24 highlights – trading-related beat, but NIM and fees evolve better than expected • Eurobank Ergasias Services: 1Q24 highlights – helped by trading income, but good quarter ove...
Bank of Cyprus (BOCH) reported EUR 133m in net income, and we believe that the bank has made a better start than its conservative guidance for the year. BOCH targets a >17% ROTE, if it adjusts its capital to a 15% CET1 ratio. In 1Q24, on our calculations, the bank had over a 23% ROTE, with a 17.1% CET1 ratio. Although we knew that the bank was defensive in its 2024E guidance, 1Q24 gave us more assurances that BOCH has little risk of missing our EUR 476m 2024E net income estimate. During the conf...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • Graphisoft Park: 4Q23 – another year of growing earnings, FFO approaching EUR 15m in 2023 POSITIVE • NEPI Rockcastle: 2H23 – NOI grows by 13% yoy in 2023, on strong tenant sales POSITIVE • Bank of Cyprus: 4Q23 highlights and 2024E guidance POSITIVE • Coca-Cola Icecek: completes acquisition of Coca-Cola Bangladesh Beverages Ltd NEUTRAL • DIGI Communications: 4Q23E preview – 13% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due 28 February) • Sipchem: 4Q23E results preview (due on 28 February) NEUTRAL ...
Bank of Cyprus has announced a decent EUR 138m of net income for 4Q23, which brought the full-year bottom line to EUR 487m. Although some pressures on earnings is starting to emerge, with peaking NIMs in 4Q23, we believe that BOCH’s market valuation (0.5x P/TBV and 2.9x P/E, on our 2024E estimates) is still implying a too abrupt normalisation from the current >20% ROTE levels. Management's mid-teens ROTE guidance for a normalised ECB deposit rate backdrop of 2-2.5% still stands. As long as the r...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Transelectrica: 3Q23 results in line with our expectations, but weak yoy performance might surprise NEGATIVE • ADNOC Drilling: 3Q23 results - better margins than expected • DIGI Communications: 3Q23 results - adjusted EBITDA up 18% yoy, in line with our estimate NEUTRAL • Telecom Egypt: 3Q23 results review - EBITDA up 7% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • ONE United Properties: 3Q23 - gross profit margin at 27%, rental income of EUR 5m for the quarter • Bank of Cyprus: 3Q2...
Bank of Cyprus (BOCH) has reported EUR 129m in net income for 3Q23, exactly in line with what we forecast as a quarterly run-rate for 2H23E (EUR 126m). There is no consensus available, and the bank does not guide for its quarterly results. We believe that our thesis still holds up: the bank’s profitability will normalise, to an extent – but only gradually. In 3Q23, BOCH made a 26% ROTE, on our calculations, where the market assumes an almost imminent normalisation, back to the 11-12% levels, as ...
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
HEADLINES: • Bank of Cyprus: tightening triumph (BUY - transfer of coverage) • Bank Millennium: solid capital ratio progress and manages to book some headline net profit in 3Q23 NEUTRAL • Akbank: 3Q23 highlights - revenue strength POSITIVE • Turkey macro: CBT heading towards ex-ante positive real rate • Shoper: earnings call takeaways - headcount to rise 9% qoq in 4Q23E NEUTRAL • Romania macro: President promulgates draft law on fiscal package NEUTRAL • Colt CZ Group SE: acquires minority sta...
We transfer coverage of Bank of Cyprus (BOCH), with a BUY rating. After years of economic struggles and subpar profitability, the tide has turned, and BOCH has become a major beneficiary of the ECB tightening. BOCH's extraordinary profitability should normalise as rates go down, but not as quickly as the market multiples imply, in our view. We have kept our valuation conservative and still believe that the 2023-25E bottom-line trajectory warrants higher multiples (3.7x P/E and 0.7x P/TBV for 202...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: beats expectations with 2Q23 delivery, implies massive upside risk to FY23E expectations • CEZ: strong 2Q beat on trading, EBITDA and net guidance unchanged POSITIVE • Graphisoft Park: 2Q23 - occupancy stable, FFO yield at 17%, developments could push it up to 20+% POSITIVE • CTP: 2Q23 - recurring in line, FFO guidance reiterated, leasing backdrop supportive, LTV contained POSITIVE • Magyar Telekom: 2Q23 results review - adjusted EBITDA +19% yoy to HUF 83.4bn, 4% above ou...
Bank of Cyprus has announced EUR 125m in net income for 2Q23 (EUR 220m in 1H23). The results have been boosted mainly by positive margin trends. The bank is running ahead of the 2023E guidance, which was targeting a >17% ROTE, vs. the 24.0% ROTE achieved in 1H23. Although management noted that it is likely approaching the peak margin in 3Q23E, the bank has done well in 1H23, on the back of the rate hikes, but also the well-contained deposit costs. We rate Bank of Cyprus a BUY, with a price targe...
EME Equity Market – June 2023 Market performance – in the mostly green month of June, Czech Index’s red performance stands out; Turkish gains eclipsed by TRY devaluation. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 3.3% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in June. The Polish WIG20 advanced the most (+11.1% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms), the Greek ASE Index (+4.9% mom in EUR terms) and the Romanian BET Index (with a more modest, but positive performance: +2....
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
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