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ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze
  • Karl Bokvist

Hexpol AB: 1 director

A director at Hexpol AB maiden bought 5,000 shares at 102.800SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...

Mattias Holmberg
  • Mattias Holmberg

Set for spicy growth

Our recent field trip to India (visiting Volvo, Epiroc, Trelleborg, Autoliv and others) alongside our analysis suggests the country is set to take centre stage as a global manufacturing hub over the coming decade, shifting from being the sixth- to the third-largest end-market for the Swedish Industrial sector. India’s strong economic growth trajectory and favourable demographics mean the companies: 1) see double-digit growth as sustainable; 2) are pursuing manufacturing capacity expansions; and ...

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze
  • Karl Bokvist
Douglas Lindahl
  • Douglas Lindahl

Hexpol (Hold, TP: SEK108.00) - Seasonal headwinds

Q4 was weak overall, driven by the surprisingly soft gross margin in the quarter, which was seemingly due to seasonality/calendar effects that hit mix and costs. We maintain our cautious view on automotive manufacturing, and have become more concerned about gross margins. We have cut our adj. EBIT by c4% for 2025e, while 2026e is broadly unchanged. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to SEK108 (112), owing to our estimate cuts.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze
  • Karl Bokvist
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze
  • Karl Bokvist
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze
  • Karl Bokvist
Douglas Lindahl
  • Douglas Lindahl

Hexpol (Hold, TP: SEK112.00) - Limited underlying changes

We forecast Q4 sales of SEK4,616m (c1% below consensus) and adj. EBIT of SEK722m (c4% below consensus). We have raised our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by c3% on average, reflecting updated FX and the inclusion of Piedmont, while our underlying estimates are down slightly. Given Hexpol’s continued strong financial position, we expect an extraordinary dividend of SEK2/share. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK112 (114) on lower peer multiples.

Douglas Lindahl
  • Douglas Lindahl

Hexpol (Hold, TP: SEK114.00) - Balanced risk/reward

The Q3 results were below our forecast and consensus, with limited forward-looking commentary from management (as usual). We expect the current automotive market weakness to persist, and have cut our adj. EBIT by c8% on average for 2024–2026e, and reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to SEK114 (132) owing to our estimate cuts.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze
  • Karl Bokvist
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