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Douglas Lindahl
  • Douglas Lindahl

Hexpol (Hold, TP: SEK112.00) - Limited underlying changes

We forecast Q4 sales of SEK4,616m (c1% below consensus) and adj. EBIT of SEK722m (c4% below consensus). We have raised our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by c3% on average, reflecting updated FX and the inclusion of Piedmont, while our underlying estimates are down slightly. Given Hexpol’s continued strong financial position, we expect an extraordinary dividend of SEK2/share. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK112 (114) on lower peer multiples.

Hexpol AB: 1 director

A director at Hexpol AB sold 150,000 shares at 108.200SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 74/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sho...

Douglas Lindahl
  • Douglas Lindahl

Hexpol (Hold, TP: SEK114.00) - Balanced risk/reward

The Q3 results were below our forecast and consensus, with limited forward-looking commentary from management (as usual). We expect the current automotive market weakness to persist, and have cut our adj. EBIT by c8% on average for 2024–2026e, and reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to SEK114 (132) owing to our estimate cuts.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze
  • Karl Bokvist
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze
  • Karl Bokvist
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze
  • Karl Bokvist
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Lara Mohtadi
  • Olof Cederholm

The Capital Goods Data Miner - August 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Hexagon, Metso, Sandvik, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Nibe, Wärtsilä

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm

Uneventful first report for new CEO

Results in line with consensus: sales -6%, EBIT margin +0.2pp. Volume and price down y-o-y, positive product and price mix. Sequential demand and pricing stable, limited incremental news.

Douglas Lindahl
  • Douglas Lindahl

Hexpol (Hold, TP: SEK132.00) - New CEO introduced

The Q2 results were in line with our forecasts and consensus, with no real forward-looking commentary from management. New CEO Klas Dahlberg joined the company around two weeks ago, and we have a solid impression despite it being early days. We have made minor estimate changes, and reiterate our HOLD and SEK132 target price, continuing to see a balanced risk/reward.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm

Q2e: Pace of recovery in question

Orders, sales and earnings flat in Q2e and '24e. Stalling PMIs = '25e recovery risk, sector could flatline. Autoliv up to HOLD, Munters up to BUY; prefer Alfa, Metso, Sandvik.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm

Future M&A is key, HOLD for now

We introduce a market model forecasting org. growth and gross margin. Future M&A pace is key driver as margin expansion potential wanes. CEO-transition uncertainty, need clarity on M&A potential : HOLD.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm

In it together? Ownership alignment update

Management ownership has increased. Great alignment at ABB, good at Volvo, Alfa, Hexagon, and Metso. Low direct ownership at Epiroc and (despite some improvement) SKF.

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