The PM sector delivered slower growth, weaker cash collection and a stable dividend payout ratio, while SOEs outperformed POEs with stronger margins and profit resilience. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT on the sector with PPS as our top pick, supported by its relatively resilient third-party expansion, higher net cash/close price ratio (0.67x), and potential upside on its dividend payout ratio.
COPH’s 1H25 results showed a 4.3% yoy earnings growth supported by improved efficiency, better receivables collection and stable cash, but revenue growth was weighed down by weaker VAS segments and slowing external expansion, leading to softer earnings forecasts despite stable core PM services. The company announced HK$0.09 interim DPS and HK$0.01 special DPS, implying a 39% payout ratio. Maintain BUY with a lower DCF-derived target price of HK$7.00.
GREATER CHINA Results China Overseas Property Holdings (2669 HK/BUY/HK$5.85 /Target: HK$7.00) 1H25: Results a mixed bag; quality growth with slower expansion pace; special dividend for 10th listing anniversary. Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK/BUY/HK$9.52/Target: HK$10.80) 1H25: In line; solid backlog, stabilised pricing, and margin recovery ahead. Han’s Laser (002008 CH/BUY/Rmb35.70/Target: Rmb39.50) 2Q25: Solid growth in operating income. PCB/IT equip...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Overseas Property Holdings (2669 HK/BUY/HK$5.85 /Target: HK$7.00) COPH’s 1H25 results showed a 4.3% yoy earnings growth supported by improved efficiency, better receivables collection and stable cash, but revenue growth was weighed down by weaker VAS segments and slowing external expansion, leading to softer earnings forecasts despite stable core PM services. The company announced HK$0.09 interim DPS and HK$0.01 special DPS, implying a 39% payout ratio. Maintain BU...
Mainland property sales continued to weaken in July, which may weigh on the recovery of land sales. Potential policy support in 2H25 could be a positive catalyst. The Hong Kong property market showed signs of stabilisation: CCL index has turned positive ytd, while inventory of primary private residential units decreased 3.8% qoq in 2Q25. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on both sectors, favouring CR Land in China for its resilient performance. We also highlight our other top pick, CR Mixc, for its attract...
GREATER CHINA Strategy China & Hong Kong Property & Property Management Mainland market continues to weaken, while the Hong Kong residential market progresses with destocking; we highlight CR Land and CR Mixc as top picks. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Archi Indonesia (ARCI IJ/BUY/Rp770/Target: Rp1,280) Well-timed turnaround with true potential waiting to be unlocked. Results Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ/BUY/Rp4,750/Target: Rp6,000) 1H25: ...
For 1H25, we expect major SOE PM companies’ businesses to be largely on track. CGS sees higher revenue growth but faces a margin decline, OCF pressures, and high impairment risks, which could delay its recovery. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT for the sector. Amid slowing residential contract growth but steady retail sales, CR Mixc is favoured over COPH. Raise all PM companies’ target prices due to lower WACC and maintain ratings.
For 2024 results, we observed a generally stable business, with higher dividend payout ratios reflecting sustained profitability for PM companies. The divergence between SOEs and POEs was more pronounced. PM companies have softened their 2025 growth targets and the lower impairment risk of CGS is a noteworthy positive development. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s property management sector. Top picks: COPH, CR Mixc.
COPH’s attributable net profit grew 12.5% yoy to Rmb1,511m, in line with expectations. COPH declared a higher dividend payout ratio of 36% (from 32%). Higher gross profit margin of PM services is a highlight, but VAS is under pressure. Management expects future profit growth to exceed revenue growth. We raise our 2025/26 earnings forecasts by 2.4%/3.2% to factor in higher margin and growth of property management services. Maintain BUY. Raise target price to HK$6.80.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$19.50/Target: HK$23.60) Mengniu’s 2024 core profit decreased by 8% yoy, in line with the profit warning. However, operating margin expansion beat expectations. Looking ahead, the company expects low single-digit revenue growth in 2025, with operating margin remaining stable. In the next three years, it aims to improve operating margin by 30-50bp on average annually. Dividend payout ratio was raised to 45% in 2024. Management targets bo...
GREATER CHINA Results China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$19.50/Target: HK$23.60) 2024: Results in line with profit warning; operating margin beat; targeting low single digit revenue growth for 2025. China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$45.90/Target: HK$49.00) 2024: Improving fundamentals but valuation is no longer attractive; downgrade to HOLD. China Overseas Property Holdings (2669 HK/BUY/HK$5.47/Target: HK$6.80) ...
We conducted channel checks on CR Mixc/PPS/CGS recently on their operational performance in 2024. CR Mixc is largely on track to achieve its target. PPS’ performance is below our expectations. We expect CGS to see a slight positive revenue growth and improved cashflow. For the sector, we have observed a common problem of worse cash collection. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Trim earnings and target prices. COPH remains our top pick, due to its high proportion of the counter-cyclical basic PM segment.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales down 10% yoy but up 8.5% wow; EVs gain on subsidy rollout. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao and Desay. Healthcare The challenging but rewarding journey of globalisation amid rising geopolitical risks. Internet ...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Property And Property Management: Encouraging property sales during Golden Week; watching policy implementation and improvement in fundamentals in 4Q24. TRADERS’ CORNER Power Assets Holdings (6 HK): Trading buy range: HK49.85-50.25 Shenzhou International Group (2313 HK): Trading buy range: HK$64.60-65.20
For 1-7 Oct 24, average daily primary/secondary transactions in 50 major cities grew 65%/98% yoy respectively. With enhanced policies, we expect the decline in primary sales GFA to narrow to -8% yoy in 4Q24, from -12.5% in Jul-Aug 24, with stabilisation of new home prices in tier 1 cities. For PM companies, higher transaction volume will benefit VAS. Policy implementation and improvement in fundamentals will be a key catalyst. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: CR Land, Longfor, COPH.
GREATER CHINA Sector Property and Property Management Encouraging property sales during Golden Week; watching policy implementation and improvement in fundamentals in 4Q24. INDONESIA Asian Gems Corporate Highlights Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp10,450/Target: Rp12,000) Plenty of room to grow. Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/BUY/Rp5,325/Target: Rp6,560) Aspires to book 20% ROE in 2028. MALAYSIA Asian Gems Corporate Hi...
In 1H24, property management companies saw moderate growth in GFA and revenue, driven by basic PM services, but profitability was pressured by declining noncommunity VAS. The divergence between SOEs and POEs is more pronounced. SOEs are cautious about 2H24 due to limited contract expansion. POEs continue to face business deterioration. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s property management sector. Top pick is COPH for its counter-cyclical business model.
COPH’s attributable net profit grew by 16.0% yoy to Rmb$738m, meeting market expectations and 48% of our annual estimate. Interim dividend payout ratio was raised by 10ppt to 35%. The 9.3% yoy growth in third-party new contracts value and improvement in margins of all businesses prove COPH’s improved competitiveness. Management targets a net profit margin of no less than 10% in 2024. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$7.20.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$71.65/Target: HK$109.60) 1H24 core net profit rose 17% yoy. Management keeps its retail sales target for the Anta brand in the teens, but has slightly lowered the target for Fila to a high single digit due to the weak performance of Fila Fusion and Fila Kids. However, management is maintaining operating margin targets for both Anta brand and Fila. Descente and KOLON are expected to continue delivering rapid growth in the next two years. On s...
GREATER CHINA Results Anta (2020 HK/BUY/HK$71.65/Target: HK$109.60) 1H24: Results beat. Fila's guidance slightly lowered; new brands performed well. China Overseas Property Holdings (2669 HK/BUY/HK$4.63/Target: HK$7.20) 1H24: Results meet expectations; higher dividend payout ratio. Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Company (3692 HK/BUY/HK$18.22/Target: HK$27.00) 2Q24: Margins deteriorate; automation demand outlook remains sluggish. Shenzhen Inovance (300124 CH/BU...
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