We keep BUY after a solid Q3

Better than expected due to I&F

Still struggling to get PA back on track

Q2 a slight disappointment

Q2 EBIT 13% below consensus. Long-term revisions limited. Reiterate BUY with unchanged TP of SEK 40.

Humana (Hold, TP: SEK34.00) - Streamlining business portfolio

Q2 showed a return to a more solid execution with an in line report. The refocusing of the business portfolio is increasing Humana’s specialisation and should permit a further deleveraging, potentially allowing for a return to a growth focus from 2025. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK34 (30) on increasing peer group valuations, and awaiting the incoming CEO Nathalie Boulas Nilsson putting her mark on the long-term potential of the case.

PA still suffers from lower volumes

Major transition ongoing

Q2 report due on 19 July. Acquisition in Norway, divestment in Finland added. New CEO announced from Norlandia Care.

Profitability is on the rise

Q1 EBIT 7% above consensus. We raise '24e EBIT by 6%. Up to BUY (Hold) with a new TP of SEK 35 (28).

Humana (Hold, TP: SEK30.00) - Back in acquisition mode

Q1 was mixed, with momentum still improving in Finland and Humana returning to acquisition mode, targeting Team Olivia (TO) Norway. While we find the deal value-enhancing, Humana’s relatively high financial gearing would suggest a deleveraging focus near-term, and the departure of CEO Johanna Rastad has added uncertainty at the wrong time. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK30 (27) on higher forecasts.

Humana (Hold, TP: SEK27.00) - Never a good time to leave

Q4 was mixed, with Finland and Norway partly offsetting challenges in Sweden and much-improved FCF lending some support. We still see a need for Humana to re-establish its quality credentials, and believe high financial gearing implies that deleveraging focus is needed also in 2024, with the departure of CEO Johanna Rastad adding uncertainty at the wrong time. We reiterate our HOLD but have lowered our target price to SEK27 (29).

Humana (Hold, TP: SEK29.00) - Deleveraging remains in focus

Q3 was mixed, with strength in Finland and Norway offsetting the challenges in Sweden, which is in recalibration mode. We still see a need for Humana to re-establish its quality credentials, and believe high financial gearing implies deleveraging focus is needed medium-term. Despite raised forecasts, we reiterate our HOLD and SEK29 target price, as we await increased deleveraging momentum.

Humana AB: 1 director

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Humana (Hold, TP: SEK29.00) - Back on firmer ground

Q2 was solid given the unprecedented circumstances, with I&F and the Finnish operation offsetting the challenge in PA and weak Elderly Care. The successful defence in the IVO case lowers the risk, but we still see a need for Humana to re-establish its quality credentials. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK29 (17), implying a valuation close to peers and a 30% (50%) discount to its historical NTM valuation.

Northern Lights

Humana (Hold, TP: SEK17.00) - Solid Q1 in the circumstances

Q1 was better than feared with solid progress in the I&F and Finnish operations offsetting the challenge in PA. While we believe Humana should be able to successfully defend itself in the upcoming IVO court case, there is still a client churn risk as it might take 1–2 years to resolve. While we still see long-term appeal, our reiterated HOLD and SEK17 target price reflect the uncertainty and potential refinancing risk.

Humana (Hold, TP: SEK17.00) - All eyes on PA court case

We have downgraded Humana to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to SEK17 (50) on uncertainty related to the court case to retain its licence to operate Swedish personal assistance. While we believe Humana should be able to mount a successful defence, near-term client churn, administrative costs and billing challenges have led us to cut our 2023–2025e EPS by 54–41%. With the welfare-service universe out of favour, deep value is no longer enough in our view, and we now see less risky opportunitie...

Northern Lights

Humana (Buy, TP: SEK50.00) - Price-cost challenges ahead

We expect Humana to continue its sequential recovery in Q4, but low index and price increases indicate a need to mitigate cost inflation and lowers the trajectory of our earnings recovery scenario. We have cut our 2022–2024e EPS by 6–23%. We still like the demand outlook and attractive valuation. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK50 (62), resetting the valuation base to reflect the current equity market.

Northern Lights

Humana - Weakness in PA offset other improvements

Q3 EBIT 2% above cons but 5% below ABGSCe We trim ’23e EBIT by 5% We reiterate BUY but with a lower TP of SEK 60 (70)