Humana (Hold, TP: SEK27.00) - Never a good time to leave

Q4 was mixed, with Finland and Norway partly offsetting challenges in Sweden and much-improved FCF lending some support. We still see a need for Humana to re-establish its quality credentials, and believe high financial gearing implies that deleveraging focus is needed also in 2024, with the departure of CEO Johanna Rastad adding uncertainty at the wrong time. We reiterate our HOLD but have lowered our target price to SEK27 (29).

Humana (Hold, TP: SEK29.00) - Deleveraging remains in focus

Q3 was mixed, with strength in Finland and Norway offsetting the challenges in Sweden, which is in recalibration mode. We still see a need for Humana to re-establish its quality credentials, and believe high financial gearing implies deleveraging focus is needed medium-term. Despite raised forecasts, we reiterate our HOLD and SEK29 target price, as we await increased deleveraging momentum.

Humana AB: 1 director

A director at Humana AB bought 195,000 shares at 27.850SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 65/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sh...

Humana (Hold, TP: SEK29.00) - Back on firmer ground

Q2 was solid given the unprecedented circumstances, with I&F and the Finnish operation offsetting the challenge in PA and weak Elderly Care. The successful defence in the IVO case lowers the risk, but we still see a need for Humana to re-establish its quality credentials. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK29 (17), implying a valuation close to peers and a 30% (50%) discount to its historical NTM valuation.

Northern Lights

Humana (Hold, TP: SEK17.00) - Solid Q1 in the circumstances

Q1 was better than feared with solid progress in the I&F and Finnish operations offsetting the challenge in PA. While we believe Humana should be able to successfully defend itself in the upcoming IVO court case, there is still a client churn risk as it might take 1–2 years to resolve. While we still see long-term appeal, our reiterated HOLD and SEK17 target price reflect the uncertainty and potential refinancing risk.

Humana (Hold, TP: SEK17.00) - All eyes on PA court case

We have downgraded Humana to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to SEK17 (50) on uncertainty related to the court case to retain its licence to operate Swedish personal assistance. While we believe Humana should be able to mount a successful defence, near-term client churn, administrative costs and billing challenges have led us to cut our 2023–2025e EPS by 54–41%. With the welfare-service universe out of favour, deep value is no longer enough in our view, and we now see less risky opportunitie...

Northern Lights

Humana (Buy, TP: SEK50.00) - Price-cost challenges ahead

We expect Humana to continue its sequential recovery in Q4, but low index and price increases indicate a need to mitigate cost inflation and lowers the trajectory of our earnings recovery scenario. We have cut our 2022–2024e EPS by 6–23%. We still like the demand outlook and attractive valuation. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK50 (62), resetting the valuation base to reflect the current equity market.

Northern Lights

Humana - Weakness in PA offset other improvements

Q3 EBIT 2% above cons but 5% below ABGSCe We trim ’23e EBIT by 5% We reiterate BUY but with a lower TP of SEK 60 (70)

Humana (Buy, TP: SEK62.00) - Value with weak momentum

Humana continued its sequential recovery in Q3, but with mixed underlying trends. Notably, there was a price to wage-cost imbalance in Personal Assistance, implying challenges in this area will continue. We have cut our 2022–2024e EPS by 6–9% post-Q3. The still-attractive valuation leads us to reiterate our BUY. However, we have cut our target price to SEK62 (70), also noticing that the whole welfare-service universe has fallen out of investor favour, making momentum weak.

Humana - Q3 report in line, rough outlook for PA

Q3 report slightly above cons Cons ‘22e EBIT up 0-2%, share flat despite beat Conference call at 09.00 CET

Sector Fast Comment - Hospital data update

Better hospital margins in September Weaker procedure volume momentum into Q4 Small positive for capex exposure

Humana - Occupancy increasing, but so are costs

Q3 results due on 10 November at 08:00 CET Occupancy continuing to improve, but costs increasing Minor estimate revisions, keep BUY, TP SEK 70 (75)

Northern Lights

Humana - Some good news in a tougher quarter

EBIT -21% vs. cons., but early signs of improvements EBIT estimates down 5-4% for ’22-‘24e Trading at 12% lease-adj. FCF yield ’23e, keep BUY

Humana (Buy, TP: SEK70.00) - Staffing needs to be balanced

Humana reported a weak Q2, with staffing challenges and costs across the operations restricting growth and profitability. However, we view most of the weak points as temporary. Humana again needs to re-establish its credentials with investors in a welfare-service universe that has fallen out of favour, with the market looking at ‘deep value’ valuations. We have cut our EPS by 20% for 2022e, but by only 1–4% for 2023–2024e. The still-attractive valuation leads us to reiterate our BUY, but we have...

Humana - Q2 EBIT below low expectations

EBIT -11%/21 vs ABGSCe/cons, 2% organic growth Cons ‘22e EBIT down 6-8%, share down slightly less Conference call at 09.00 CET

Humana - Mixed Q2 but share is too cheap

Q2 results due on 18 August at 08:00 CET Sales up 7% on M&A, but margin dilutive near-term Attractive 9-12% FCF yield, keep BUY and TP of SEK 80