Catena Media: 1 director

A director at Catena Media bought 87,947 shares at 6.850SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

Proof is in the pudding

Q2 showing decent Casino progress

Headwinds everywhere you look

Q2 PW, mid-point EBITDA 39% below ABGSCe. Estimate downgrades continue: '24e-'25e EBITDA down 6-16%. Clean equity FCF almost wiped, but assets could still be valuable.

We cautiously await evidence of improvement

Underwhelming Q1 sees us make significant estimate cuts. We believe the '24 guidance is too optimistic. Evidence of improvement is needed – keep HOLD, TP SEK 6 (8).

Underwhelming Q1

Catena Media - Uncertain outlook remains

Q3 below our expectations, October seems slow as well ‘22e-‘24e EBITDA down 8-16%, partly due to divestments Our SOTP still shows upside – BUY on weakness

Catena Media - Divestments have started

Q3: largely in line with consensus Slow October update, down 1% ex. divested assets Share likely to underperform slightly today

Catena Media - Awaiting the “new” CTM for a re-rated multiple

Q3e to show q-o-q improvement, but still not compelling We lower our estimates on an even more cautious view SOTP shows decent upside – strategic review awaits

Sector Fast Comment - ABGSC’s Investor Day feedback

Rovio and EG7 attended ABGSC’s Investor Day COVID-rebasing in mobile gaming to normalise soon Important changes presented by new EG7 management

Catena Media - Treading water

Soft Q2 numbers were largely expected Small negative estimate revisions Awaiting the strategic review outcome – retain BUY

Catena Media - Weak numbers - but should be expected

Adj. EBITDA -40% y-o-y We expect limited ‘22e cons adj. EBIT revisions Share should trade in line with the market today

Catena Media - RoW headwinds remain

Recall the weak trading update; slow Q2 awaits We lower ’22e-‘24e expectations, cautiously optimistic Multiples look like a bargain, buybacks should support

Catena Media - Record quarter was overlooked by the market

Q1 numbers were exceptionally strong A weak trading update pressured the share Reiterate BUY – new TP of SEK 60 (75)

Catena Media - Strong margins but slow trading update

Q1 beat, 48% EBIT margin April revenues up 3% y-o-y, well below cons expectations Expect a negative share price reaction today

Catena Media - Digging CPA gold in the US

Expect a record quarter despite record comps Ontario dynamics could impact the trading update BUY CTM NA at 10x ‘22e EV/EBITDA – get RoW for free

Sector Fast Comment - Leo Vegas receives a 44% premium bid

Bid corresponds to 11.3x ‘22e EV/EBITDA (Factset cons) We prefer Kindred, and note the 11 US market accesses Consolidation continues – positive read-x to the sector

Sector Report - A defensive position in uncertain times

Catena Media - Q4 miss but strong ’22 outlook - BUY

Q4 results below our expectations Trading update +29% y-o-y in January revenues 6.3x diluted EV/EBIT in ‘22e - BUY

Catena Media - Weak Q4 but strong start to Q1’22

Q4 below expectations Strong start to Q1’22 driven by NY launch Share can underperform today- BUY on weakness