Good opportunities in a pressured sector

BUY on trough earnings

Kambi Group Plc: 2 directors

Two Directors at Kambi Group Plc bought 3,970 shares at between 120.300SEK and 122.900SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over t...

In need of stabilisation

Catena Media: 1 director

A director at Catena Media bought 212,053 shares at 1.713SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

Weak Q1, hybrid update and cost measures

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK195.00) - Aiming for the next league

Q1 earnings fell shy of our forecast due to non-cash FX revaluations, and the company maintained its underlying 2025 EBITA guidance of EUR20m–25m. We remain confident of an earnings improvement during the year – driven by a greater contribution from Brazil, the launch of the key OLG contract and cost efficiencies – and expect the client pipeline to materialise further. We reiterate our BUY and SEK195 target price.

Outlook unchanged, keep BUY

Slight Q1 sales miss, reiterated '25 guidance

Treading water until '26e acceleration

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK195.00) - Decent start to 2025

We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to SEK195 (200) on trimmed estimates (weak USD). We forecast decent Q1 results (due at 08:00 CET on 30 April), including adj. EBIT of EUR5.4m, down slightly YOY, reflecting the Kindred contract and raised gaming taxes. We expect the 2025 adj. EBIT guidance to be maintained, and see potential for client signings, stricter cost efficiency and better capital distribution.

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK200.00) - Increasingly de-risked 2025e

The Q4 earnings beat was overshadowed by a 2025 outlook implying negative EBIT YOY, prompting cuts to our 2025–2026e, but fairly stable consensus, we believe. We see potential for more client signings and cost savings to improve the outlook (following positive news flow YTD) as well as scope for higher share buybacks. We reiterate our BUY ahead of an increasingly de-risked 2025e, but have cut our target price to SEK200 (210).

'25 another tough year, but still good value

'25 EBITA guidance in line

Balancing '25 headwinds and tailwinds

Unexciting US data in Q4

The state launch waiting game

Top line pressure continues, slightly better opex

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK210.00) - Growth from Brazilian stake

Kambi’s recent signings (e.g. KTO and Stake) and opportunities in the newly regulated Brazilian market support our view of positive revenue growth in 2025–2026e. In addition, there is the potential for efficiency initiatives introduced by the new CEO, and we expect decent Q4 results, supported by a busy sports calendar and healthy sports margins in European football. We reiterate our BUY and SEK210 target price.

ICE 2025: what we learned