View 
FILTERS (0)
* Not connected to ResearchPool

MORE FILTERS

  
reports
Hannes Thorstensson
  • Hannes Thorstensson

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK125.00) - Order beat, earnings miss

We view the Q1 results as soft despite strong order growth of 16% organically YOY, with all divisions contributing to the beat. A miss on adj. EBITA was driven by lower sales and a weak Facade Access (FA) margin of 9.5% due to legacy projects and lower utilisation. Alimak stated that investment decisions for new tall buildings would continue to be postponed, and legacy projects phased out through 2025. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK125 (140), having lowered our 2025–...

Hannes Thorstensson
  • Hannes Thorstensson

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK140.00) - Mean reversion

We are in line with post-Q4 consensus on Q1 sales and adj. EBITA, as we forecast sales of SEK1,800m and an adj. EBITA margin of 18.2% (Q1 2024 16.4%). We expect a sequential decline in the Facade Access adj. EBITA margin, as it was boosted by contingency releases booked in Q4, but a recovery in Construction. We have lowered our 2025–2027e sales by 5% and adj. EBITA by 7% on average due to FX. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK140 target price.

Mattias Holmberg
  • Mattias Holmberg

Set for spicy growth

Our recent field trip to India (visiting Volvo, Epiroc, Trelleborg, Autoliv and others) alongside our analysis suggests the country is set to take centre stage as a global manufacturing hub over the coming decade, shifting from being the sixth- to the third-largest end-market for the Swedish Industrial sector. India’s strong economic growth trajectory and favourable demographics mean the companies: 1) see double-digit growth as sustainable; 2) are pursuing manufacturing capacity expansions; and ...

Mattias Holmberg
  • Mattias Holmberg

Who stands to benefit?

A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could unlock one of the largest reconstruction efforts in modern history. The World Bank estimates Ukraine will need USD486bn in rebuilding efforts over the next decade, but we estimate this would add only c2% to annual European construction spending. While the direct earnings effect may be modest, we expect the “rebuild Ukraine theme” to drive investor sentiment. We see Volvo, Epiroc, Hexagon, Metso, Hiab and ABB as some of the primary beneficia...

Hannes Thorstensson
  • Hannes Thorstensson

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK140.00) - Strong end to the year

The Q4 report was solid, with orders up 8% organically YOY to SEK1,837m, driven by the Construction and Industrial divisions. The adj. EBITA margin was strong at 17.6%, with the Facade Access (FA) margin up to 15.6% (Q4 2023 5.9%). Alimak expects all divisions to grow organically in 2025, but growth in construction-related segments to be tilted more towards H2. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK140 (130), having increased our 2025–2026e adj. EBITA by c2%.

Hannes Thorstensson
  • Hannes Thorstensson

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK130.00) - A gentle goodbye to 2024e

We are 2% above post-Q3 consensus on Q4e sales and 1% above on adj. EBITA, as we forecast an adj. EBITA margin of 17.2% (Q4 2023 15.7%, consensus 17.4%). We expect the company to guide for a construction market rebound not earlier than H2, but that M&A should be a contributor for growth in 2025 (M&A is not in our estimates). Following minor estimates changes, we reiterate our HOLD and SEK130 target price.

Hannes Thorstensson
  • Hannes Thorstensson

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK130.00) - Facade Access: ‘man’ of the match

The Q3 report was mixed, with orders down 2% organically YOY (4% below consensus) and sales flat YOY (in line with consensus). Facade Access orders rose 25% organically YOY (supported by a large infrastructure order), albeit, offset by construction down 27% organically YOY. The highlight was the 5% adj. EBITA beat, driven by a 160bp margin beat in Facade Access. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK130 (125), having increased our 2024–2026e adj. EBITA by 3% on FX changes ...

Hannes Thorstensson
  • Hannes Thorstensson

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK125.00) - Limited changes ahead of Q3

We are 2% below post-Q2 consensus on Q3e sales and 4% below on adj. EBITA, as we forecast an adj. EBITA margin of 17.0% (Q3 2023 16.1%, consensus 17.4%). We expect the company to guide for project delays in Facade Access continuing in 2024 and into 2025. Following a change of analyst, we have made minor divisional estimate changes. Consequently, we have lowered our 2025–2026e adj. EBITA by 1% (of which c1% FX). We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK125 (117).

Alimak Group AB: 1 director

A director at Alimak Group AB maiden bought 1,890 shares at 107.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two year...

Mattias Holmberg
  • Mattias Holmberg

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK117.00) - On hold

Q2 was solid overall, but mixed at a divisional level, with group orders and sales flat YOY (in line with consensus). Industrial orders were up 18% YOY organically and Wind 8%, offsetting Facade Access’s -17% YOY. The adj. EBITA margin was 17% (+50bp YOY), driven by a 480bp YOY increase in Facade Access. Following a change of analyst, we reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK117 (102), having increased our 2024–2026e adj. EBITA by 5–2% (FX and margin assumptions).

Hanna Lindbo
  • Hanna Lindbo

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK102.00) - Facade Access progress

Alimak reported a solid Q1, with strong margins in Industrial and Facade Access. Margins in Construction were on the weak side (following weak Q4 orders), but management seemed confident of a return to normal as soon as in Q2. We have raised our 2024–2026e adj. EBITA by 1–2%. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK102 (100).

Hanna Lindbo
  • Hanna Lindbo

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK100.00) - Limited changes ahead of Q1

We have lowered our 2024e sales and adj. EBITA by 1%, mainly on lower organic growth in Construction, and marginally revised our 2025–2026e ahead of the Q1 results (due at 08:00 CET on 25 April). We believe project delays within Facade Access continued to hamper divisional sales, and expect a recovery in H2. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK100 (94) on valuation.

Hanna Lindbo
  • Hanna Lindbo

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK94.00) - Facade Access yet to turn corner

We have reduced our 2024e adj. EBITA by 2%, largely explained by our lower Facade Access margin assumptions, with the improvement in profitability taking longer than we expected. However, management guided for a gradual increase in 2024 (and all new orders booked in Q4 are in line with its higher margin requirements). We reiterate our HOLD but have trimmed our target price to SEK94 (95).

Hanna Lindbo
  • Hanna Lindbo

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK95.00) - Higher margin for 2025e

We have tweaked our 2023–2024 forecasts but raised our 2025e adj. EBITA by 2% on higher Facade Access margin forecasts. While we believe project delays still affected Facade Access’s Q4 order intake, 2025 margins in the division should be boosted by savings from consolidating assembly activity. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK95 (69), seeing lower risks related to the construction market than before.

Hanna Lindbo
  • Hanna Lindbo

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK69.00) - Mixed Q3 results

The headline numbers were 2–5% below consensus, but the divisional results were mixed. While Facade Access’ order intake was weak (with a soft outlook), Construction was solid. We have lowered our 2024–2025e adj. EBITA by 2–5%, mainly on the weaker market outlook for Facade Access, and reiterate our HOLD and target price of SEK69.

Hanna Lindbo
  • Hanna Lindbo

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK69.00) - Waiting on Facade Access

We have raised our 2023e sales by c1%, mainly on FX, but lowered our adj. EBITA slightly on lower margin assumptions for Facade Access. We are expecting a slight improvement in the legacy Facade Access margin QOQ, but believe it will take time before it is able to reach similar margins to Tractel’s. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK69 (87) on valuation.

Hanna Lindbo
  • Hanna Lindbo

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK87.00) - Solid Q2

Group Q2 sales and adj. EBITA beat consensus by 1% and 4%, respectively, and Industrial and Wind enjoyed strong adj. EBITA margins; however, the Facade Access margin showed no sign of improvement. Alimak said higher interest rates have started to affect parts of its business, and would continue to do so near-term. Our 2023e sales are roughly unchanged, but we have raised our adj. EBITA by 1% on higher margin assumptions, and we reiterate our HOLD and SEK87 target price.

Douglas Lindahl ... (+14)
  • Douglas Lindahl
  • Hanna Lindbo
  • Jesper Ingildsen
  • Joachim Gunell
  • Johan Skoglund
  • Johannes Grunselius
  • Martin Arnell
  • Mattias Holmberg
  • Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Simen Aas
  • Simen Mortensen
  • Stefan Gauffin
  • Tomi Railo
Hanna Lindbo ... (+10)
  • Hanna Lindbo
  • Joachim Gunell
  • Martin Arnell
  • Nicolas McBeath
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Patrik Ling
  • Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Stefan Gauffin
  • Steffen Evjen
  • Tomi Railo
Hanna Lindbo
  • Hanna Lindbo

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK87.00) -

We have raised our 2023e sales by c1% and adj. EBITA by c2%, mainly on FX, ahead of the Q2 results (due at 08:00 CET on 20 July). While we believe there will be a slight improvement in the Facade Access EBITA margin in Q2 QOQ, it could take some time for the legacy Facade Access margin to reach double digits. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK87 (84).

Loading...
New interest

Save your current filters as a new Interest

Please enter a name for this interest

Email alerts

Would you like to receive real-time email alerts when a new report is published under this interest?

Save This Search

These search results will show up under 'Saved searches' in the left panel

Please enter a name for this saved search

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch