Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK102.00) - Facade Access progress

Alimak reported a solid Q1, with strong margins in Industrial and Facade Access. Margins in Construction were on the weak side (following weak Q4 orders), but management seemed confident of a return to normal as soon as in Q2. We have raised our 2024–2026e adj. EBITA by 1–2%. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK102 (100).

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK100.00) - Limited changes ahead of Q1

We have lowered our 2024e sales and adj. EBITA by 1%, mainly on lower organic growth in Construction, and marginally revised our 2025–2026e ahead of the Q1 results (due at 08:00 CET on 25 April). We believe project delays within Facade Access continued to hamper divisional sales, and expect a recovery in H2. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK100 (94) on valuation.

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK94.00) - Facade Access yet to turn corner

We have reduced our 2024e adj. EBITA by 2%, largely explained by our lower Facade Access margin assumptions, with the improvement in profitability taking longer than we expected. However, management guided for a gradual increase in 2024 (and all new orders booked in Q4 are in line with its higher margin requirements). We reiterate our HOLD but have trimmed our target price to SEK94 (95).

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK95.00) - Higher margin for 2025e

We have tweaked our 2023–2024 forecasts but raised our 2025e adj. EBITA by 2% on higher Facade Access margin forecasts. While we believe project delays still affected Facade Access’s Q4 order intake, 2025 margins in the division should be boosted by savings from consolidating assembly activity. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK95 (69), seeing lower risks related to the construction market than before.

Alimak Group AB: 1 director

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Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK69.00) - Mixed Q3 results

The headline numbers were 2–5% below consensus, but the divisional results were mixed. While Facade Access’ order intake was weak (with a soft outlook), Construction was solid. We have lowered our 2024–2025e adj. EBITA by 2–5%, mainly on the weaker market outlook for Facade Access, and reiterate our HOLD and target price of SEK69.

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK69.00) - Waiting on Facade Access

We have raised our 2023e sales by c1%, mainly on FX, but lowered our adj. EBITA slightly on lower margin assumptions for Facade Access. We are expecting a slight improvement in the legacy Facade Access margin QOQ, but believe it will take time before it is able to reach similar margins to Tractel’s. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK69 (87) on valuation.

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK87.00) - Solid Q2

Group Q2 sales and adj. EBITA beat consensus by 1% and 4%, respectively, and Industrial and Wind enjoyed strong adj. EBITA margins; however, the Facade Access margin showed no sign of improvement. Alimak said higher interest rates have started to affect parts of its business, and would continue to do so near-term. Our 2023e sales are roughly unchanged, but we have raised our adj. EBITA by 1% on higher margin assumptions, and we reiterate our HOLD and SEK87 target price.

Northern Lights

Northern Lights

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK87.00) -

We have raised our 2023e sales by c1% and adj. EBITA by c2%, mainly on FX, ahead of the Q2 results (due at 08:00 CET on 20 July). While we believe there will be a slight improvement in the Facade Access EBITA margin in Q2 QOQ, it could take some time for the legacy Facade Access margin to reach double digits. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK87 (84).

Northern Lights

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK84.00) - Elevating margins

Alimak reported a strong Q1 across all divisions except Facade Access. We have raised our 2023e adj. EBITA by 3% on higher margin estimates in all divisions except Facade Access. Order intake was strong in Construction, but demand for new equipment seems to have declined. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK84 (81).

Northern Lights

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK81.00) - Integration on track

We continue to expect 2023 sales to be supported by a strong backlog, but have lowered our sales and adj. EBITA by 1% and 2% (mainly on FX changes and a lower margin assumption in Construction). We believe construction activity and industrial spending continued to hold up in Q1. The integration of Tractel seems to be on track, although it is still early days. We reiterate our HOLD but have lowered our target price to SEK81 (105) following the closing of the rights issue.

Northern Lights

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK105.00) - On course for new heights

We have raised our 2023–2024e sales for Height Safety and Productivity Solutions (HSPS) but lowered them for Construction, as Tractel was split across the divisions differently than we expected. Management seems confident, but we are still waiting for more information about the coming rights issue. Construction order intake was strong in Q4, supporting our view that its organic sales will hold up in 2023. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK105 (94).

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK94.00) - All eyes on Tractel

With the exception of Wind, we believe order intake continued to hold up across Alimak’s divisions in Q4 and will support group sales throughout 2023. We have consolidated Tractel in our estimates from 21 November 2022, which explains most of the changes to our estimates. We reiterate our HOLD but have increased our target price to SEK94 (69).

Northern Lights

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK69.00) - Still standing

We have raised our 2022e adj. EBITA by 4% on the back of the Q3 results. For 2023e, we have increased our order intake by 2% and adj. EBITA by 4%. In our view, the Q3 report showed strength in order intake and profitability, and the company said it is still seeing high activity in the market. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK69 (68).