Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK130.00) - A gentle goodbye to 2024e

We are 2% above post-Q3 consensus on Q4e sales and 1% above on adj. EBITA, as we forecast an adj. EBITA margin of 17.2% (Q4 2023 15.7%, consensus 17.4%). We expect the company to guide for a construction market rebound not earlier than H2, but that M&A should be a contributor for growth in 2025 (M&A is not in our estimates). Following minor estimates changes, we reiterate our HOLD and SEK130 target price.

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK130.00) - Facade Access: ‘man’ of the match

The Q3 report was mixed, with orders down 2% organically YOY (4% below consensus) and sales flat YOY (in line with consensus). Facade Access orders rose 25% organically YOY (supported by a large infrastructure order), albeit, offset by construction down 27% organically YOY. The highlight was the 5% adj. EBITA beat, driven by a 160bp margin beat in Facade Access. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK130 (125), having increased our 2024–2026e adj. EBITA by 3% on FX changes ...

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK125.00) - Limited changes ahead of Q3

We are 2% below post-Q2 consensus on Q3e sales and 4% below on adj. EBITA, as we forecast an adj. EBITA margin of 17.0% (Q3 2023 16.1%, consensus 17.4%). We expect the company to guide for project delays in Facade Access continuing in 2024 and into 2025. Following a change of analyst, we have made minor divisional estimate changes. Consequently, we have lowered our 2025–2026e adj. EBITA by 1% (of which c1% FX). We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK125 (117).

Alimak Group AB: 1 director

A director at Alimak Group AB maiden bought 1,890 shares at 107.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two year...

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK117.00) - On hold

Q2 was solid overall, but mixed at a divisional level, with group orders and sales flat YOY (in line with consensus). Industrial orders were up 18% YOY organically and Wind 8%, offsetting Facade Access’s -17% YOY. The adj. EBITA margin was 17% (+50bp YOY), driven by a 480bp YOY increase in Facade Access. Following a change of analyst, we reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK117 (102), having increased our 2024–2026e adj. EBITA by 5–2% (FX and margin assumptions).

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK102.00) - Facade Access progress

Alimak reported a solid Q1, with strong margins in Industrial and Facade Access. Margins in Construction were on the weak side (following weak Q4 orders), but management seemed confident of a return to normal as soon as in Q2. We have raised our 2024–2026e adj. EBITA by 1–2%. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK102 (100).

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK100.00) - Limited changes ahead of Q1

We have lowered our 2024e sales and adj. EBITA by 1%, mainly on lower organic growth in Construction, and marginally revised our 2025–2026e ahead of the Q1 results (due at 08:00 CET on 25 April). We believe project delays within Facade Access continued to hamper divisional sales, and expect a recovery in H2. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK100 (94) on valuation.

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK94.00) - Facade Access yet to turn corner

We have reduced our 2024e adj. EBITA by 2%, largely explained by our lower Facade Access margin assumptions, with the improvement in profitability taking longer than we expected. However, management guided for a gradual increase in 2024 (and all new orders booked in Q4 are in line with its higher margin requirements). We reiterate our HOLD but have trimmed our target price to SEK94 (95).

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK95.00) - Higher margin for 2025e

We have tweaked our 2023–2024 forecasts but raised our 2025e adj. EBITA by 2% on higher Facade Access margin forecasts. While we believe project delays still affected Facade Access’s Q4 order intake, 2025 margins in the division should be boosted by savings from consolidating assembly activity. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK95 (69), seeing lower risks related to the construction market than before.

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK69.00) - Mixed Q3 results

The headline numbers were 2–5% below consensus, but the divisional results were mixed. While Facade Access’ order intake was weak (with a soft outlook), Construction was solid. We have lowered our 2024–2025e adj. EBITA by 2–5%, mainly on the weaker market outlook for Facade Access, and reiterate our HOLD and target price of SEK69.

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK69.00) - Waiting on Facade Access

We have raised our 2023e sales by c1%, mainly on FX, but lowered our adj. EBITA slightly on lower margin assumptions for Facade Access. We are expecting a slight improvement in the legacy Facade Access margin QOQ, but believe it will take time before it is able to reach similar margins to Tractel’s. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK69 (87) on valuation.

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK87.00) - Solid Q2

Group Q2 sales and adj. EBITA beat consensus by 1% and 4%, respectively, and Industrial and Wind enjoyed strong adj. EBITA margins; however, the Facade Access margin showed no sign of improvement. Alimak said higher interest rates have started to affect parts of its business, and would continue to do so near-term. Our 2023e sales are roughly unchanged, but we have raised our adj. EBITA by 1% on higher margin assumptions, and we reiterate our HOLD and SEK87 target price.

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Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK87.00) -

We have raised our 2023e sales by c1% and adj. EBITA by c2%, mainly on FX, ahead of the Q2 results (due at 08:00 CET on 20 July). While we believe there will be a slight improvement in the Facade Access EBITA margin in Q2 QOQ, it could take some time for the legacy Facade Access margin to reach double digits. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK87 (84).

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Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK84.00) - Elevating margins

Alimak reported a strong Q1 across all divisions except Facade Access. We have raised our 2023e adj. EBITA by 3% on higher margin estimates in all divisions except Facade Access. Order intake was strong in Construction, but demand for new equipment seems to have declined. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK84 (81).

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Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK81.00) - Integration on track

We continue to expect 2023 sales to be supported by a strong backlog, but have lowered our sales and adj. EBITA by 1% and 2% (mainly on FX changes and a lower margin assumption in Construction). We believe construction activity and industrial spending continued to hold up in Q1. The integration of Tractel seems to be on track, although it is still early days. We reiterate our HOLD but have lowered our target price to SEK81 (105) following the closing of the rights issue.

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