Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, we published previews for most of our coverage universe. For Aker BP, we estimate solid Q1 production of 450kboed, with our EBITDA forecast 12% above consensus, ahead of the trading update on 7 April. For Vår Energi, we expect a slow start to the year, with Q1e production of 277kboed, leaving our EBITDA c7% below consensus, ahead of the trading update on 11 April. In other news, Johan Castberg reached first oil this week, with ramp-up expected through Q2 2025.

Time to pick up this market leader

Thriving in the current environment

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we expect FX and multiples headwinds to weigh heavily on Kinnevik’s Q1 report; 2) VEF’s NAV looks set to grow by low single digits QOQ in USD terms; and 3) Industrivärden is due to report Q1 results next week, ahead of which we highlight a more attractive near-term investment story in its main owner Lundbergs.

Metso (Buy, TP: EUR11.00) - Slow large mining capital decisions

Metso (METSO FH, Buy) - Slow large mining capital decisions (19 pages)

Crude Quarterly Q1'25: weaker oil market fundamentals

Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 3 April

OKEA (Buy, TP: NOK23.00) - Set for strong sales and cash flow

Ahead of the Q1 report, due around 07:00 CET on 29 April, we forecast net production of ~33kboed and EBITDA of USD189m (no reliable consensus). We expect a meaningful overlift position and working capital release in the quarter, with USD69m in FCF, increasing OKEA’s net cash position to USD120m (NOK12/share or ~65% of current market cap). While we still forecast FCF to be negative in 2025–2026 due to high investments in new developments, we continue to find the long-term case attractive given a ...

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK140.00) - Mean reversion

We are in line with post-Q4 consensus on Q1 sales and adj. EBITA, as we forecast sales of SEK1,800m and an adj. EBITA margin of 18.2% (Q1 2024 16.4%). We expect a sequential decline in the Facade Access adj. EBITA margin, as it was boosted by contingency releases booked in Q4, but a recovery in Construction. We have lowered our 2025–2027e sales by 5% and adj. EBITA by 7% on average due to FX. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK140 target price.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

March web-activity insights

Web-activity data from March indicates roughly flat trading activity MOM for Avanza and Nordnet, and one of the most active months in three years despite negative seasonality. For Q1e, we see c20% upside potential on Avanza’s trading-related commissions, c15% on Nordnet’s. The platforms are due to release their March statistics on 3 April.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, we published a note on the harsh reality of USD70/bbl for our coverage. While investors appear to be positioning for lower oil prices, we believe consensus FCF estimates for NCS large caps remain overly aggressive. Meanwhile, DNO announced a discovery at the Kjøttkake prospect, north-west of Troll, adding ~NOK0.8/share (~4%) to DNO’s NAV and ~NOK1/share to Aker BP’s (

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 28/03/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: Production rises again. Maiden reserves report. First LNG sales in Kazakhstan on track for 1H26 – YE24 2P reserves in Uzbekistan were estimated at 18.5 mmboe. 4Q24 production was 10,511 boe/d increasing to 12,019 boe/d in March to date and 12,288 boe/d over the past five days. In March, Condor signed a non-binding letter of intent outlining the basic terms and conditions for ...

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) with Q1 coming to a close, we highlight valuation trends YTD for Investor, Kinnevik and Latour; 2) Klarna’s prospective IPO would have both direct and indirect effects on Swedish investment companies; and 3) Flerie is set to take Toleranzia private in an all-shares deal.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector

Germany: Investing its way back to growth

Weekly news, topics and discussion

This week, NCS February production was broadly in line with the NOD’s expectations, with total output flat MOM but down 2.4% YOY. Aker BP showed solid January production, while Equinor, Vår Energi, OKEA and DNO showed declines MOM. Halten East is now on stream, but its slow ramp-up limits Vår Energi’s 2025 uplift to ~5kboed, reinforcing the downside risk to its 330–360kboed guidance. Also, DNO successfully placed a new USD600m bond (8.5% coupon) to refinance DNO04 and for general corporate purpo...

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Investor-owned Advanced Instruments agreed to acquire Nova Biomedical for USD2.2bn, creating Investor’s second-largest unlisted holding; 2) Svolder reported Q2 2024/25 NAV up 10% QOQ, outperforming the CSRX at 5%; 3) we see 24% NTM NAV growth potential in Bure’s portfolio; and 4) VNV further postponed its proposed USD83m sale of Gett.