Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK130.00) - A gentle goodbye to 2024e

We are 2% above post-Q3 consensus on Q4e sales and 1% above on adj. EBITA, as we forecast an adj. EBITA margin of 17.2% (Q4 2023 15.7%, consensus 17.4%). We expect the company to guide for a construction market rebound not earlier than H2, but that M&A should be a contributor for growth in 2025 (M&A is not in our estimates). Following minor estimates changes, we reiterate our HOLD and SEK130 target price.

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

November: Pulp shipments -4% y-o-y

CO2 allowances - easy come, easy go

Salmones Camanchaca (Hold, TP: CLP2350.00) - Solid cost performance in...

Q3 operating EBIT of USD3.5m was broadly in line with our USD4.6m estimate, with the deviation explained by a weaker coho result than expected. The company raised its 2024 Atlantic salmon volume guidance by 1kt to 47kt–49kt (55kt in 2025), with 4kt–5kt of coho kept unchanged. Costs were solid in Q3, and the company guided for a continued improvement in Q4, led by better sanitary conditions and declining feed costs. We now use the Chilean share price following the Oslo de-listing and set our targ...

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

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Sector title

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Salmones Camanchaca (Buy, TP: NOK27.00) - Expecting a solid cost perfo...

We forecast Q3 operating EBIT of USD4.6m (no consensus), and an EBIT/kg of USD0.47 based on the 8.9kt (WFE) of Atlantic salmon sold (12.4kt harvested); the results are due 13 November. We expect management to reiterate the 2025 volume guidance of c55kt (WFE) of Atlantic salmon (c15% growth YOY) and 2–5kt (WFE) of coho. We have made limited estimate changes, and reiterate our BUY and NOK27 target price.

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

September: Pulp shipments -10% y-o-y

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK45.00) - Uneventful Q3

Q3 EBITDA of EUR45m was in line with our estimate and consensus, but EPS of EUR0.06 disappointed due to higher-than-expected losses on financial instruments. We have edged up our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–2%, based on improved visibility on volume assumptions in the Americas. We forecast Q4 EBITDA of EUR47m and reiterate our HOLD and raise our target price to NOK45 (44).

It's not a sprint, it's a marathon

Headline EBITDA in line, below on IFRS

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK130.00) - Facade Access: ‘man’ of the match

The Q3 report was mixed, with orders down 2% organically YOY (4% below consensus) and sales flat YOY (in line with consensus). Facade Access orders rose 25% organically YOY (supported by a large infrastructure order), albeit, offset by construction down 27% organically YOY. The highlight was the 5% adj. EBITA beat, driven by a 160bp margin beat in Facade Access. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK130 (125), having increased our 2024–2026e adj. EBITA by 3% on FX changes ...

Stora acquires a Finnish sawmill company

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK125.00) - Limited changes ahead of Q3

We are 2% below post-Q2 consensus on Q3e sales and 4% below on adj. EBITA, as we forecast an adj. EBITA margin of 17.0% (Q3 2023 16.1%, consensus 17.4%). We expect the company to guide for project delays in Facade Access continuing in 2024 and into 2025. Following a change of analyst, we have made minor divisional estimate changes. Consequently, we have lowered our 2025–2026e adj. EBITA by 1% (of which c1% FX). We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK125 (117).