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ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf

Key takeaways from the Nordic Property Tour 2024

Strong demand in logistics rental market during H1 2024. Residential companies more likely to grow through acquisitions than development. Bond financing margins are converging on bank margins across the sector.

Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole Martin Westgaard

XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Closing in on partnership with Frasers Gro...

XXL announced this morning that it is close to agreeing a strategic partnership with Frasers Group. We believe the announcement is positive as it accelerates XXL’s ambition to double down on its private-label share, which is key to improving gross margins and profitability. We believe the agreement is likely to trigger market speculation that Frasers Group is one step closer to a full acquisition of XXL, although in such a scenario it could have made more sense for Frasers Group to wait.

Simen Mortensen
  • Simen Mortensen

A bit of everything

This week, Wihlborgs bought new assets, Citycon sought the conversion of its 2025 hybrid bond, SBB announced a new JV, dismantled an old one, and set a record date for the remaining 2023 dividends, Balder issued four bonds, while Prisma Properties is aiming for an IPO. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.42% for 2024e and 4.82% for 2025e.

ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
  • Martin Melbye

Leading indicators

OECD: The indicator points up from a low level. US: The indicator points up (housing starts, monetary policy, interest rates, real FX). EU: The indicator points up from a low level (bond yields, stock market). Japan: The indicator is neutral (monetary policy, housing starts).

Telefonaktiebolaget L M Ericsson: 1 director

A director at Telefonaktiebolaget L M Ericsson bought 7,246,806 shares at 63.314SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 73/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the ...

Linus Sigurdson
  • Linus Sigurdson

The weekly navigator

From this week, we highlight: 1) Lundbergs reported Q1 results, and we expect neutral NAV revisions; 2) however, its exclusion from the OMXS Benchmark Index could drive a discount-to-NAV expansion, and we reiterated our SELL; and 3) Investor’s CFO Helena Saxon increased her shareholding in the company. The weekly navigator will be off next week and return the following week.

Schibsted ASA: 1 director

A director at Schibsted ASA bought 5,400 shares at 292.600NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 76/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

ABGSC Media Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Media Research
  • Ali Shemmari
  • Petter Nystrøm

Game on

Higher prices and cost cuts to accelerate growth. Doubling of NMP EBITDA in 3 years, 27% CAGR. +8% and 18% vs . cons . in '25/26. BUY, TP NOK 440 (350).

 PRESS RELEASE

Borregaard ASA: Reporting of transactions in Borregaard ASA's shares m...

Borregaard ASA: Reporting of transactions in Borregaard ASA's shares made by person discharging managerial responsibilities Today, primary insider Ole Gunnar Jakobsen, Plant Director, Sarpsborg Site, exercised 20,000 stock options at a strike price of NOK 87.60 per share, and in separate transactions, purchased and sold the same number of shares. The shares are drawn from Borregaard’s holdings of treasury shares. Please, see attached notifications for persons discharging managerial responsibilities in Borregaard in accordance with Regulation EU 596/2014 (MAR) article 19. After the transa...

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Olof Cederholm

China: Price champion of the world

Important to be aligned with strategic sectors. Difficult to turn around areas with high overcapacity, and property. Cost, subsidies & lower margins – China will offer the lowest price.

Simen Mortensen
  • Simen Mortensen

Bond margin improvement and other news

This week, Sagax issued a 6-year EUR500m fixed bond – the first ‘large and longer-duration’ EUR bond issue by a listed Swedish real estate company in around two years. Also, Fitch warned about the liquidity situation in SBB Norden, Emilshus raised equity, and K2A initiated a written procedure to extend its bonds. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.38% for 2024e and 4.78% for 2025e.

Linus Sigurdson
  • Linus Sigurdson

The weekly navigator

From this week, we highlight: 1) Creaspac released its Q1 results, and has just a month left to find an acquisition target; 2) Investor bought 25m Ericsson B-shares, marking one of just a handful of purchases in its listed portfolio in recent years; and 3) Lundbergs is set to report Q1 results next week, as the Lundberg sphere continues to tighten its grip on Industrivärden.

ABGSC Financials Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Fredrik Flørnes Støle
  • Jan Erik Gjerland

CEO repeats its strong repricing message

Repeat its profitable growth, price and cost discipline. Weather effects of 7.2pp in Q1'24 give hope of improved 2H. No estimate changes, ~10% upside to TP of NOK 195, BUY.

Simen Mortensen
  • Simen Mortensen

Equity raise, two more Q1 reports

This week, Nyfosa raised SEK1.7bn in equity, and Citycon and Olav Thon reported their Q1 results. Real estate stocks have performed well globally since the latest US CPI print. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.32% for 2024e and 4.71% for 2025e.

Linus Sigurdson
  • Linus Sigurdson

The weekly navigator

Our takeaways from the past week: 1) VNV Global announced the sale of Gett and subsequently announced a buyback programme; 2) we met with VEF in New York, whose largest holding Creditas reported strong Q1 numbers; and 3) Bure reported Q1 NAV up 16% QOQ, outperforming the SIXRX.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm

The Capital Goods Data Miner - May 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Hexagon, Metso, Sandvik, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Nibe, Wärtsilä

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