Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Orkla ASA: 1 director

A director at Orkla ASA bought 20,000 shares at 82.100NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sho...

Renewable Weekly – 15 May 2024

This week, we take a preliminary look at Vestas' Q2 announced order intake quarter to date.

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Elmera Group (Sell, TP: NOK21.00) - Time to recharge

The Q1 results were above our forecasts, but cash flow was weak. We expect the key focus ahead to be the need for a new bank facility, which we are concerned could come at an increased financial cost. We have made minor estimate changes and reiterate our SELL and NOK21 target price.

Renewable Weekly – 8 May 2024

This week, we look at key takeaways from GWEC's 2024 Global Wind Report.

Powering up

Q1 demonstrated strength, more favourable market dynamics. Another beat in Q2e, we are 8% ahead on adj EBIT. Multiple expansion to continue: Still ~30% upside to TP: BUY

Elmera Group (Sell, TP: NOK21.00) - Q1 EBIT above

We consider this a positive report for Elmera overall, including EBIT above expectations but deliveries slightly below (but above in Consumer), and weak operating cash flow due to significant working capital movements. We expect 3% positive revisions to consensus 2024e EBIT on the back of the report and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.

Axactor (Hold, TP: NOK4.60) - Challenging collection climate

Soft collections in the Nordic and German markets, and corresponding portfolio revaluations, led to a 9% YOY drop in total income in Q1. Although the EUR100m–200m annual investment target was reiterated, we expect modest activity short-term due to limited NPL volumes at attractive prices. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by 10–14%, primarily reflecting lower collections, lowered our target price to NOK4.6 (6.8), and downgraded the stock to HOLD (BUY).

Cambi (Buy, TP: NOK20.00) - Preparing for higher activity

We consider the project delays in Q1 a bump in the road, and expect the business case to remain strong on increasing awareness and commercial interest for thermal hydrolysis, and an expanding pipeline of potential projects, supported by a backlog with 40% in the engineering phase set to enter manufacturing this year. We reiterate our BUY and NOK20 target price, and find the stock attractive at 2024–2025e EV/EBITDAs of 8.5–7.9x, versus its waste management and recycling peer group at ~12x.

Bakkafrost (Hold, TP: NOK600.00) - High expectations

Operating EBIT was a solid DKK710m, c5–7% above consensus and our estimate, driven by a high EBIT margin in Faroes Farming and in the fish feed, oil and meal operations. We believe market expectations were high, and the guidance for a more back-end loaded Faroes harvest failed to excite. We have increased our 2024–2025e by 0-5.3% driven by higher Faroes Farming margins. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to NOK600 (590).

Tougher to collect in Northern Europe

Cash EBITDA -20%/-15% vs. ABG/consenus, margins 62% which filter into poor EBIT -25%/-22% vs ABG/cons. ERC down 2% q-o-q = cons down 3-10% = stock down -7-13%.

The higher they fly, the harder they fall

'24e-25e EBIT -5-4% on Scotland and lower volumes. Great Q1, but clouds on the horizon and headwinds ahead. Given the continued risk of disappointments, we keep SELL.

Bakkafrost (Hold, TP: NOK590.00) - Q1 beat driven by Faroes

Q1 operating EBIT was DKK710m, 5–7% above our estimate and consensus, with the beat mainly driven by Faroes Farming. Management comments suggest a continued strong biological performance in the sea for Faroes Farming in Q2. The 2024 harvest guidance was unchanged at 66kt from the Faroes and 25kt from the UK. We expect consensus 2024 EPS to come up 0–2% and a similar share price reaction today.

Q1 EBIT +2% on stellar Faroese performance

Comeback kickoff

Q2 better on margins and volumes; earnings mix also strong. Further improvement in coming quarters on margin recovery. Record-low valuation: P/E 12-13x, SOTP at NOK 107/share.

Hexagon Purus (Hold, TP: NOK7.00) - On track

The Q1 report came as a relief to the capital markets. With decent quarterly results, capacity expansion on track, and a still-supportive demand outlook, the industrial business case looks intact. That said, we note the still-high funding need. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to NOK7 (6) on lower dilutive effects from assumed further capital raises after Friday’s share price rally. The stock continues to trade at an attractive 40–50% discount to other hydrogen equipment s...

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK81.00) - Signs of light

Orkla’s Q1 results were slightly above consensus, with positive developments in volume and gross margin. Nevertheless, we reiterate our HOLD and NOK81 target price, as we continue to find the valuation fair, and we have made only minor estimate revisions.