If it's too good to be true, it usually is

Salmon prices higher on another blow to '24e supply, but farmers struggling to reap the benefits due to weak biology. Valuation not demanding, but more mixed triggers short term.

As good as it gets – down to SELL

Q1e EBIT of DKK 664m (-2% vs. comp.any-collected consensus). '24e/'25e EBIT up 1%/3%, still 6%-13% below consensus. Unattractive valuation and sentiment to turn: SELL (Hold).

CEO departure increases uncertainty

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Exciting year ahead

Seasonally weak Q1 to show strong improvement. We have become more optimistic about profitability. BUY: Storytel is on a good path and the valuation is too low.

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK102.00) - Facade Access progress

Alimak reported a solid Q1, with strong margins in Industrial and Facade Access. Margins in Construction were on the weak side (following weak Q4 orders), but management seemed confident of a return to normal as soon as in Q2. We have raised our 2024–2026e adj. EBITA by 1–2%. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK102 (100).

Storytel (Buy, TP: SEK75.00) - The plot thickens

We believe recent insider trading and EQT’s board representative not standing for re-election could signal a potential shift in the shareholder base and direction for Storytel, which could create some short-term uncertainty, but also trigger a strategic review. We reiterate our BUY and SEK75 target price as we see potential upside to Storytel’s 2024 EBITDA margin guidance with a step change in FCF generation driving an undemanding valuation, with a 2025e EV/EBITDA of 7x, P/E of 19x and OpFCF yie...

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK100.00) - Limited changes ahead of Q1

We have lowered our 2024e sales and adj. EBITA by 1%, mainly on lower organic growth in Construction, and marginally revised our 2025–2026e ahead of the Q1 results (due at 08:00 CET on 25 April). We believe project delays within Facade Access continued to hamper divisional sales, and expect a recovery in H2. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK100 (94) on valuation.

Sector title

Sector title

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Bakkafrost (Hold, TP: NOK590.00) - Strong Q1e coming up

We expect Q1 operating EBIT of DKK666m (8% above consensus of DKK615m), driven by higher harvest volumes, as EBIT/kg margins are broadly in line (our estimated group EBIT/kg is DKK30.8 versus consensus of DKK31.2). Faroe Islands harvested 14.3kt in Q1 and we expect solid average harvest weights, while Scotland harvested 7.3kt. We expect high superior shares in both regions. For the Fishmeal, Oil and Feed segment, we expect EBIT of DKK162m, in line with consensus of DKK164m. The Q1 report is due ...

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

The quality report

Knowing who has the best farming locations, production areas and operations is key to assessing future performance potential. Our extensive asset quality research findings suggest SalMar has the best sites, and the best MAB portfolio, while Mowi has outperformed its benchmark the most and has the most conservative estimates versus our expectations. Grieg Seafood is the most undervalued and Lerøy Seafood has the highest margin rebound potential in our view.

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Fabege AB: 2 directors

Two Directors at Fabege AB bought 56,700 shares at between 84.000SEK and 85.670SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 85/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last...

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Bakkafrost (Hold, TP: NOK590.00) - Soft Q4, but H1 looks favourable

Q4 operating EBIT of DKK356m was 17–10% below our estimate and consensus of DKK428m–396m; the DKK8.7 DPS proposed for 2023 also disappointed (our forecast and consensus DKK10–12). Biology is guided to be solid in both regions with large fish expected to be harvested in Q1. While we have trimmed our 2024–2025e operating EBIT by 6-3%, our assumption of a lower revenue tax means we have cut our 2024e EPS by 2.1%, but raised 2025–2026e by 2.1–7.8%. As a result, we reiterate our HOLD but have increas...