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ABGSC Healthcare Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Healthcare Research
  • Stefan Knutsson

New financial targets in focus

Aims for adj. EPS of at least SEK 5.50 in '26. Driven by 10% EBITA CAGR and buybacks. We trim our long-term assumptions.

Attendo AB: 1 director

A director at Attendo AB bought 200,000 shares at 24.761SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 65/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

Stefan Knutsson
  • Stefan Knutsson

Attendo - Solid occupancy improvements in Scandinavia

Q3 slightly better than expected Finland still on track for a turnaround in 2023 Focus is on occupancy amid high inflation

Stefan Knutsson
  • Stefan Knutsson

Attendo - Short-term beat, no news about FI negotiations

5.7% EBITA beat vs ABGSCe, 10.1% vs cons ‘22e to come up ~4%, FI negotiations paused Share to outperform by low to mid-single digits

Erik Cassel ... (+3)
  • Erik Cassel
  • Jakob Lembke
  • Stefan Knutsson

Attendo - Staffing law delayed, positive for 2023e costs

Q3 report due on 26 October Final nursing staff requirement increases postponed Minor estimate changes

Erik Cassel ... (+2)
  • Erik Cassel
  • Jakob Lembke

Attendo - Finland profitability truly back on the table

Weaker-than-expected Q2 on sick leave and inflation On track for 30% price increase in Finland from April ’23 ’22/’23e -37%/0%, lease-adj. FCF yield ‘23e 16%

Erik Cassel ... (+2)
  • Erik Cassel
  • Jakob Lembke

Attendo - Weak Q2 but ’23 negotiations developing well

30% EBITA miss vs ABGSC/cons ’22e ests to come down >20%, negotiations support ‘23e Share to underperform low single digits

Erik Cassel ... (+2)
  • Erik Cassel
  • Jakob Lembke

Attendo - Undemanding market expectations for Finland

Q1 results due 21 July 08:00 CET Minor estimate changes Valuation discounts

Erik Cassel ... (+2)
  • Erik Cassel
  • Jakob Lembke

Attendo - Underlying progress is being masked

New temporary headwinds mask margin improvement ‘22e lease adj. EBITA down 15%, ’23e down 6% Keep BUY: 13% ’23e lease adj. FCF yield

Erik Cassel ... (+2)
  • Erik Cassel
  • Jakob Lembke

Attendo - Q1 EBITA in line but cautious outlook

EBITA in line with cons but below ABGSC Weak outlook, ’22 ests. down 10%, less for ’23 onwards Share to underperform mid-single digits, conf call 10 CET

Erik Cassel ... (+2)
  • Erik Cassel
  • Jakob Lembke

Attendo - Reason to look beyond temporary costs in Q1

Q1’22 results due 6 May at 08.00 CET Lease adj. EBITA ’22-’24e down 8-3% Margin improvement ahead – 9-17% FCF yield ’22-’24e

Erik Cassel ... (+2)
  • Erik Cassel
  • Jakob Lembke

Attendo - Positive trends in Q4

Q4 points towards margin story taking off ‘22e EBITA down 12% on sick leave costs, 23’e -3% 11% FCF yield ‘23e – Keep BUY and TP of SEK 50

Erik Cassel ... (+2)
  • Erik Cassel
  • Jakob Lembke

Attendo - High sick leave impacted margin in Q4

Sales in line but margin below expectations Better occupancy trend and higher price increase Small positive reaction warranted

Erik Cassel ... (+2)
  • Erik Cassel
  • Jakob Lembke

Attendo - No Omicron panic warranted

Q1 results due 10 February at 08:00 CET Only minor impact from Omicron - estimates down 9-6% 9-12% lease adj. FCF yield: BUY, TP to SEK 50 (55)

Adam Karlsson ... (+3)
  • Adam Karlsson
  • Erik Cassel
  • Jakob Lembke

Attendo - Q3 confirms positive margin trajectory

Q3 shows customer inflow back to normal levels… …which increases confidence in margin improvements ’23e lease adj. FCF yield 11%; keep BUY & TP of SEK 55

Adam Karlsson ... (+3)
  • Adam Karlsson
  • Erik Cassel
  • Jakob Lembke

Attendo - Q3’21 report

Q3 sales in line but better margin Customer inflow has normalized in Scandinavia Conference call at 10.00 CET

Adam Karlsson ... (+3)
  • Adam Karlsson
  • Erik Cassel
  • Jakob Lembke

Attendo - Valuation attractive with improvements ahead

Demand recovery from COVID-19 expected in Q3 Negative margin trends to reverse in H2 ’23e lease adj. FCF yield of 11% – BUY, TP SEK 55 (60)

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