Another record year; on track for c10% EBIT growth in 2024 – Jumbo delivered 20% EBIT growth in FY23 thanks to 14% higher sales, resilient gross margins (-15bps yoy, albeit >3pps higher than 2019 levels) and opex savings (opex just +6% yoy). Coupled with net financial income given the debt-free balance sheet, Jumbo grew net profits by a whopping 22%, eclipsing the +20% embedded in our estimates a year ago. Mgt proposed another generous €1 DPS following the €0.6 paid in March, adding up to c6% yi...
Another record year; on track for c10% EBIT growth in 2024 – Jumbo delivered 20% EBIT growth in FY23 thanks to 14% higher sales, resilient gross margins (-15bps yoy, albeit >3pps higher than 2019 levels) and opex savings (opex just +6% yoy). Coupled with net financial income given the debt-free balance sheet, Jumbo grew net profits by a whopping 22%, eclipsing the +20% embedded in our estimates a year ago. Mgt proposed another generous €1 DPS following the €0.6 paid in March, adding up to c6% yi...
2023: Reclaiming investor spotlight – Greek equities had another year of stellar performance, with the ASE index popping >40%, eclipsing the Stoxx 600 by >25ppts. Strong fundamentals (mid-teens EBITDA growth for non-financials, >50% NII growth for banks) were coupled with falling risk premia thanks to crystallized domestic political stability and expectations for Greece’s return to investment grade (IG), further propelled by the generic risk-on rally in Q4 and low positioning. Financials (+66%) ...
2023: Reclaiming investor spotlight – Greek equities had another year of stellar performance, with the ASE index popping >40%, eclipsing the Stoxx 600 by >25ppts. Strong fundamentals (mid-teens EBITDA growth for non-financials, >50% NII growth for banks) were coupled with falling risk premia thanks to crystallized domestic political stability and expectations for Greece’s return to investment grade (IG), further propelled by the generic risk-on rally in Q4 and low positioning. Financials (+66%) ...
EME Equity Market – September 2023 Market performance – positive developments in Romania and Turkey, declines everywhere else. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 3.7% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in September. Romania took the spotlight, with the BET Index advancing 7.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Turkish ISE30 (+4.6% mom). The Polish WIG20 declined the most (-8.7% mom), followed by the Greek ASE, the Hungarian BUX and, finally, the Czech PX (-7.9%, -1.9% and -0.6% mom, respectively).
Another beat in H1’23; heading for mid-teens sales growth in FY23e – Jumbo delivered 27% EBITDA growth in H1 as a result of 20% sales growth, a relatively mild 1.7pps gross margin compression (in the context of last year’s unsustainably high 57% gross margin) and tight opex control. Coupled with net financial income given the debt-free balance sheet, Jumbo grew net profits by a whopping 36%, eclipsing the +21% anticipated by consensus. Mgt lifted the FY23 net profit guidance by c4% despite a c3%...
Another beat in H1’23; heading for mid-teens sales growth in FY23e – Jumbo delivered 27% EBITDA growth in H1 as a result of 20% sales growth, a relatively mild 1.7pps gross margin compression (in the context of last year’s unsustainably high 57% gross margin) and tight opex control. Coupled with net financial income given the debt-free balance sheet, Jumbo grew net profits by a whopping 36%, eclipsing the +21% anticipated by consensus. Mgt lifted the FY23 net profit guidance by c4% despite a c3%...
HEADLINES: • LPP: 2Q23 beat on cost discipline; second-best quarterly EBIT and earnings historically POSITIVE • PCF Group: 2Q23 results miss our expectations on higher SG&A and negative one-offs NEGATIVE • Jumbo: solid 1H23 numbers, FY23E net profit growth guidance upped to 15% yoy POSITIVE • OTP Bank: mixed comments on taxes from government representatives NEGATIVE • CD Projekt: Update 2.0 for Cyberpunk attracts 90k concurrent players on Steam POSITIVE • Orlen: to invest in an oilseed processin...
Stay on board – Greek stocks have had a rather muted summer (ASE +4.7% in July, -1.6% in August), as the prospect for higher-for-longer rates fanned worries about the global economy, leading to widening equity risk premia amidst poorer liquidity conditions given the low seasonality. With Greek stocks already up 35% ytd (banks +55%), the short-term risk-reward looks symmetrical as the fragile international sentiment is balanced with the strong domestic fundamentals, attractive valuations and posi...
Stay on board – Greek stocks have had a rather muted summer (ASE +4.7% in July, -1.6% in August), as the prospect for higher-for-longer rates fanned worries about the global economy, leading to widening equity risk premia amidst poorer liquidity conditions given the low seasonality. With Greek stocks already up 35% ytd (banks +55%), the short-term risk-reward looks symmetrical as the fragile international sentiment is balanced with the strong domestic fundamentals, attractive valuations and posi...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: posts solid 2Q23 and delivers 25%+ headline ROE; trading at just 1.2x reported P/BV • Komercni Banka: solid 2Q23, beat on LLPs, rest in line, 2023E outlook seems to be well on track NEUTRAL • ING BSK: solid 2Q23 results, better on quality mix, NII in the limelight • Migros: 2Q23 results - in line operationally NEUTRAL • Wizz Air: 1Q FY24 - revenue environment remains strong, with costs in line with the consensus POSITIVE • BRD-GSG: solid bottom line, despite NIM con...
EME Equity Market – April 2023 Market performance – in the black across all geographies, except for Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 3.4% mom in EUR terms and 4.9% mom in USD in April. The Polish WIG20 Index saw the biggest gains (+11.5% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+7.8% mom in EUR terms) and the Greek ASE Index (+2.9% mom in EUR terms). More muted performances were witnessed in the Czech PX Index and Romanian BET Index, both adding 1.7% mom in EUR terms for th...
Impressive execution continues unfettered – Following 14% sales growth and 12% EBIT growth in 2022 (coupled with another beat in FY22 results), momentum seems to continue unfettered in Q1’23 with sales +33% yoy. Although COVID-related restrictions ought to have provided a significant boost in Q1 by creating an easy base-effect, we believe underlying growth is still quite robust (in the mid to high teens), which bodes well for our assumption for 16% top line growth in the full year. Our numbers e...
Impressive execution continues unfettered – Following 14% sales growth and 12% EBIT growth in 2022 (coupled with another beat in FY22 results), momentum seems to continue unfettered in Q1’23 with sales +33% yoy. Although COVID-related restrictions ought to have provided a significant boost in Q1 by creating an easy base-effect, we believe underlying growth is still quite robust (in the mid to high teens), which bodes well for our assumption for 16% top line growth in the full year. Our numbers e...
HEADLINES: • STS Group: staying in the game (stays BUY) • STS Group: 1Q23 NGR growth of 12% yoy POSITIVE • Motor Oil Hellas: 4Q22 results - refining weaker than expected • Jumbo: solid 2H22 results and 1Q23 trading update • Hungary macro: geopolitics remains a risk NEGATIVE • OMV Petrom: 1Q23 trading statement shows better operating performance versus FY guidance POSITIVE • OMV: 1Q23 trading results • Georgia Capital: announces USD 10m share buyback and cancellation POSITIVE • Warsaw Stock ...
EME Equity Market – March 2023 Market performance – all geographies down in March. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 7.6% mom in EUR terms and 5.7% mom in USD in March. Among a sea of red, Romania’s BET saw the smallest decline (-2.6% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Czech PX Index (-5.5% mom in EUR terms). The Greek ASE and the Hungarian BUX indices saw similar declines (-7.4% and -7.5% mom ,respectively, in EUR terms), while the worst performer for the month was the Turkish ISE30, down 10.5% mo...
HEADLINES: • Georgia macro: Georgian Dream withdraws legislation on "foreign agents" • Poland macro: NBP remains on hold • Romania macro: gently does it • Jumbo: strong February sales momentum and 2023E guidance • Asseco Poland: 4Q22 preliminary net profit reaches PLN 126m, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • OMV: creates geothermal joint venture with Wien Energie • Hellenic Bank: issues EUR 200m Tier 2 subordinated notes • Public Power Corporation: signs deal to acquire Enel's Romanian a...
Impressive sales growth – Jumbo continues its impressive execution, having delivered 40% sales growth in Jan-Feb 2023 following +14% in FY22. Although the 2-month trading has been propelled by one-off factors (warm weather in Jan, earlier carnival season and cycling of pandemic restrictions in Q1’22), these do not – by any means – iron out the astonishing sales performance and should not mask the underlying growth drivers, namely the wide assortment, the value offering and the smart price/mix ma...
Impressive sales growth – Jumbo continues its impressive execution, having delivered 40% sales growth in Jan-Feb 2023 following +14% in FY22. Although the 2-month trading has been propelled by one-off factors (warm weather in Jan, earlier carnival season and cycling of pandemic restrictions in Q1’22), these do not – by any means – iron out the astonishing sales performance and should not mask the underlying growth drivers, namely the wide assortment, the value offering and the smart price/mix ma...
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