Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

XXL ASA (Hold, TP: NOK11.00) - Encouraging LFL growth

The Q1 results were below expectations, but we find the positive LFL growth encouraging amid challenging winter conditions and years of consecutive negative LFL growth. We have reinstated our recommendation at HOLD (NO REC) and target price at NOK11 (N/A), as the earnings trend remains subdued and near-term multiples and financial risk are high. However, this is partly offset by Frasers' NOK10 per share bid for the company.

XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Q1 below, but back to growth

We consider this a slightly negative report for XXL, including figures below expectations despite revenue growth in a quarter with challenging winter conditions. We expect consensus 2025e EBITDA to come down 3–5% and find a slight negative share price reaction warranted.

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Muted 2025 growth expectations

Following Q1 earnings calls by some of the oil service companies, 2025 outlooks appear more challenging than previously. Baker Hughes expects international upstream spending to decline by mid- to high-single digits, while Halliburton sees its international revenues flat to slightly down. Furthermore, Weatherford expects 2025 international revenue to decline by low double- to mid-double digits. Precision Drilling flagged additional rig suspensions by Saudi Aramco, and SLB highlighted a slow start...

ENI capex cut but maintains shareholder returns

Driven by macro headwinds and uncertainty around trade tariffs, ENI was the first large oil company to introduce capex cuts for 2025, contributing to a more challenging business environment for oil services. Over the past five years, we estimate ENI to have been the oil major with strongest offshore spending growth, and it has been considered active and opportunistic while others have been more conservative. Hence, we see its reduction as a soft datapoint for oil services. ENI has optimised its ...

Important year coming up

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Time to revisit

The unfolding trade war has led us to cut our global 2025–2027e demand and trim our spot price estimates. The negative price effect is partly countered by reduced mortality boosting volumes and lowering costs, leading to net EPS cuts of 11–2%. Given the sector’s solid track record in adapting to past crises and recent share-price declines, we see a significantly improved risk/reward and have a positive stance on the sector. We have upgraded Mowi, Bakkafrost, and Grieg Seafood to BUY (HOLD).

Norway: Government suggests substantial changes to farming regulations

Q1'25 trading update: EBIT -11% vs cons

Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations

Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

E&P spending sensitivity explored

With an oil price at the mid-USD60s/bbl level, focus on the oil major overspending situation, and resulting impact on the outlook for offshore-focused oil services, is set to increase further. While oil companies would likely cut, or even eliminate, buyback programmes first, we expect increased focus on spending reductions and efficiencies, creating a more challenging business environment for oil services. Hence, we see a risk of oil companies taking a more cautious approach, resulting in projec...

Q1 trading update: Volumes 16% above consensus

No good deed goes unpunished

Lower downside risk into Q1 than peers

Weak spot price, but signs of improvements