Estimate cuts on 2026 guidance

Q4 beat but 2026 guidance downgrade

Preferred pick

Bonava AB: 1 director

A director at Bonava AB bought 100,000 shares at 10.540SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 51/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sh...

Strong Q3 report and large surplus value

Broad beat, share to trade up

Turning to y-o-y sales growth

Recovery story intact

Headlines below, underlying better

More to give - keep BUY

Sales miss, solid underlying activity

Recovery in the making

Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations

Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.

Bonava (Hold, TP: SEK10.00) - New but recycled targets

Bonava hosted a CMD on 27 March. While focus was on the expected market recovery, it announced ‘new’ financial targets (recycled old ones), in which the EBIT margin and ROE targets refer to new POC accounting starting in 2025, rather than formal IFRS figures. While recovery was the underlying theme, we do not expect it to be reflected in the Q1 results. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK10 target price.

CMD with many positives

Bonava (Hold, TP: SEK10.00) - Another chance to convince

Bonava is due to provide an update on its business plan and strategy at its CMD in Stockholm (27 March). So far, it has not met the financial or operational targets presented at its last CMD, and we note its history of changing its targets; we believe it will be down to results to convince. With our expectation of negative EPS for 2025–2026, and a potential recovery in 2027, we continue to find a better risk/reward elsewhere in the sector. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK10 target price.

Setup too great to ignore

Bonava (Hold, TP: SEK10.00) - KPIs lead the way

As we expected, Bonava’s Q4 results reflected the low cycle in the housing market. While adj. EBIT was 3% above our estimate and 11% above Infront consensus, it was down 38% YOY. We are concerned that 2025e and 2026e EPS will be negative due to a low cycle due to few deliveries. However, we expect key performance indicators (KPIs), such as sales and starts, to recover, just as they did in Q4. We believe there is still upside potential in the stock in a normalised housing market. However, the rec...

Margins a potential game changer

Strong on all fronts