Nordic shorts: Embracer and Nibe highlighted

Shorts update

It's all about sales momentum from here

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK30.00) - Q3 miss, Urban Property covenants

While Q3 was an expected low season, with few deliveries, EPS was below our forecast on higher costs. The POC EBIT margin also fell more than we estimated, but we expect this to improve in the coming quarters with more starts. The company said it has renegotiated the terms with Urban Property, and the NIBD/EBITDA covenant will now use the POC (NGAAP) figures (previously volatile IFRS figures), thereby removing the potential 2025 covenant breach. However, we continue to find consensus recovery ex...

Running interest payments to UP from 2025e

Improvement from a low base

Strong cash flow

2025e: Strong cash flow & earnings growth

Jm Ab (Sell, TP: SEK155.00) - Normalisation likely to take time

Q3 EPS was 62% below consensus and our forecast. Units sold were slightly more than we expected, but we believe discounts were used. JM stated it had issued redundancy notices to 150 workers, on rising costs on started projects, and lower EBIT margins than its long-term target. It also said it would take time for the market to normalise, despite falling interest rates. The inventory of unsold homes climbed to an all-time high, a trend that appears to have continued in Q4. We believe consensus re...

Time to sell the inventory

Will start to accelerate in 2025e

Nordic shorts: ahead of the reporting season

Shorts update

Back to decent profitability in 2026e

Q3e: EBIT NOK -12m vs. cons. NOK -3m. UP: Divi. reduction or cut the full downside of a covenant breach. Trading at ~12x '26e earnings.

KPIs and profits reflect cycle-lows

While the sector has rallied on expectations of a recovery in Nordic CRE and residential starts, there are no signs of an actual recovery yet. With our base case still for a gradual sales recovery in 2026, our longer-term estimates remain below consensus, reflecting slow profit-recognition under IFRS – the latter also underlies our expectation of declining revenues and EBIT YOY in Q3 for several names we cover. Our sector top picks are still Skanska, NCC and Veidekke, while we see downside risk ...

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK30.00) - Recovery stalls in Q3

The recovery seen in recent quarters stalled in Q3, with group unit sales and starts down QOQ – unit sales ended 33% below our estimate (and down 51% QOQ), while unit starts were 79% below our forecast (and down 55% QOQ). The full Q3 results are due at 07:00 CET on 7 November, for which we forecast low nominal EPS. We reiterate our SELL and NOK30 target price.

Positive volume deviation and inventory draws

Jm Ab (Sell, TP: SEK155.00) - Near-term in line, long-term below

Ahead of JM’s Q3 results (due at c08:00 CET on 22 October), we are broadly in line with Infront consensus on EBIT (slightly above on units started and sold). However, we find consensus too bullish on the speed and strength of a P&L recovery longer-term (2026e), and reiterate our SELL and SEK155 target price.

Bonava (Hold, TP: SEK8.50) - Q3 likely to be weak

We expect a KPI recovery for housing starts and sales from a low base; however, with few completions, we forecast a weak Q3 EPS of SEK-0.42 (results due at c07:00 CET on 24 October). We have cut our 2024e EPS after Bonava announced a SEK60m impairment in a deal with OBOS in Gothenburg, and we see scope for more impairments with a potential Finnish operation divestment. We reiterate our HOLD on the low valuation but few near-term catalysts, but have reduced our target price to SEK8.5 (9).

Nordic shorts: H&M and highlighted ideas

Avg. short interest (top 100) of 5.4% vs. 5.3% one month ago. Highlight: H&M

JM AB: 1 director

A director at JM AB bought 1,600 shares at 205.800SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing...

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK30.00) - EPS beat, but DPS delay

Assisted by two divestments, but also a solid underlying EBIT margin on completed developments, Q2 EPS beat our forecast and Bloomberg consensus. However, given its liquidity needs, Selvaag Bolig decided not to pay out a DPS for H1, and stated that it would assess a 2024 DPS after Q4. We continue to expect an improving market, but find the share price too high on 2024–2026e P/E, and reiterate our SELL and NOK30 target price.