Sales miss, solid underlying activity

Estimates down on delayed margin recovery

Jm Ab (Buy, TP: SEK170.00) - Passing the trough

Q1 EBIT was 4% below our estimate and Infront consensus, while EPS fell well short in percentage terms due to a low nominal figure. KPIs did not recover as much as we expected, although JM reiterated its target to increase housing starts to 3,800 units p.a., citing macroeconomic conditions as a key factor. Given the current market outlook, we believe the company has passed the trough on EPS, as we expect starts and sales to recover in late 2025 and 2026. We reiterate our BUY and target price of ...

Margins continue to surprise negatively

Good value

Recovery in the making

Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations

Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.

Jm Ab (Buy, TP: SEK170.00) - BUY on the dip

JM’s share price has been volatile over the past three years, trading in waves on recovery expectations. As the Swedish residential market has yet to recover, expectations have recently fallen further, and the stock has reached old lows. However, we expect a market recovery in late-2025 and 2026, and we believe this has created an attractive entry point. KPIs (unit sales and unit starts) are our Q1 focus point, as profits are still affected by cycle lows and a trailing profit recognition. We hav...

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK32.00) - Unit sales in line, EPS still tra...

Today’s Q1 trading update showed a unit sales recovery broadly in line with our forecast. However, while starts were above our forecast, our 2025e is unchanged at 700 units. Despite KPIs seemingly recovering as expected, we still see downside risk for the stock given the long lead time to profit and dividends and as the valuation looks high relative to peers. Ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:00 CET on 21 May), we forecast marginally negative Q1 EPS on few deliveries. We reiterate our SELL and ...

Sales as expected, deliveries above

Bonava (Hold, TP: SEK10.00) - New but recycled targets

Bonava hosted a CMD on 27 March. While focus was on the expected market recovery, it announced ‘new’ financial targets (recycled old ones), in which the EBIT margin and ROE targets refer to new POC accounting starting in 2025, rather than formal IFRS figures. While recovery was the underlying theme, we do not expect it to be reflected in the Q1 results. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK10 target price.

CMD with many positives

Bonava (Hold, TP: SEK10.00) - Another chance to convince

Bonava is due to provide an update on its business plan and strategy at its CMD in Stockholm (27 March). So far, it has not met the financial or operational targets presented at its last CMD, and we note its history of changing its targets; we believe it will be down to results to convince. With our expectation of negative EPS for 2025–2026, and a potential recovery in 2027, we continue to find a better risk/reward elsewhere in the sector. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK10 target price.

Setup too great to ignore

Selvaag Bolig ASA: 5 directors

Five Directors at Selvaag Bolig ASA sold 294,695 shares at between 36.840NOK and 37.020NOK. The significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over ...

Price momentum building

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK32.00) - DPS recovery still some way off

While we continue to expect KPIs such as sales and starts to improve in 2025–2026, the lead time to profit and dividends remains long, and we continue to see a better risk/reward in peers. Q4 results were, as expected, hit by few deliveries (low season) and one block of delivered (profit-recognised) units being a small rental building. As we roll forward our valuation and publish our 2027 forecasts, we reiterate our SELL but have raised our target price to NOK32 (30).

'25e volume guidance in line

Bonava (Hold, TP: SEK10.00) - KPIs lead the way

As we expected, Bonava’s Q4 results reflected the low cycle in the housing market. While adj. EBIT was 3% above our estimate and 11% above Infront consensus, it was down 38% YOY. We are concerned that 2025e and 2026e EPS will be negative due to a low cycle due to few deliveries. However, we expect key performance indicators (KPIs), such as sales and starts, to recover, just as they did in Q4. We believe there is still upside potential in the stock in a normalised housing market. However, the rec...

Margins a potential game changer