Sales miss, solid underlying activity

Estimates down on delayed margin recovery

Jm Ab (Buy, TP: SEK170.00) - Passing the trough

Q1 EBIT was 4% below our estimate and Infront consensus, while EPS fell well short in percentage terms due to a low nominal figure. KPIs did not recover as much as we expected, although JM reiterated its target to increase housing starts to 3,800 units p.a., citing macroeconomic conditions as a key factor. Given the current market outlook, we believe the company has passed the trough on EPS, as we expect starts and sales to recover in late 2025 and 2026. We reiterate our BUY and target price of ...

Margins continue to surprise negatively

Good value

Recovery in the making

Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations

Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.

Jm Ab (Buy, TP: SEK170.00) - BUY on the dip

JM’s share price has been volatile over the past three years, trading in waves on recovery expectations. As the Swedish residential market has yet to recover, expectations have recently fallen further, and the stock has reached old lows. However, we expect a market recovery in late-2025 and 2026, and we believe this has created an attractive entry point. KPIs (unit sales and unit starts) are our Q1 focus point, as profits are still affected by cycle lows and a trailing profit recognition. We hav...

Bonava (Hold, TP: SEK10.00) - New but recycled targets

Bonava hosted a CMD on 27 March. While focus was on the expected market recovery, it announced ‘new’ financial targets (recycled old ones), in which the EBIT margin and ROE targets refer to new POC accounting starting in 2025, rather than formal IFRS figures. While recovery was the underlying theme, we do not expect it to be reflected in the Q1 results. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK10 target price.

CMD with many positives

Bonava (Hold, TP: SEK10.00) - Another chance to convince

Bonava is due to provide an update on its business plan and strategy at its CMD in Stockholm (27 March). So far, it has not met the financial or operational targets presented at its last CMD, and we note its history of changing its targets; we believe it will be down to results to convince. With our expectation of negative EPS for 2025–2026, and a potential recovery in 2027, we continue to find a better risk/reward elsewhere in the sector. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK10 target price.

Setup too great to ignore

Bonava (Hold, TP: SEK10.00) - KPIs lead the way

As we expected, Bonava’s Q4 results reflected the low cycle in the housing market. While adj. EBIT was 3% above our estimate and 11% above Infront consensus, it was down 38% YOY. We are concerned that 2025e and 2026e EPS will be negative due to a low cycle due to few deliveries. However, we expect key performance indicators (KPIs), such as sales and starts, to recover, just as they did in Q4. We believe there is still upside potential in the stock in a normalised housing market. However, the rec...

Margins a potential game changer

Strong on all fronts

JM AB: 2 directors

Two Directors at JM AB bought 2,267 shares at between 159.388SEK and 168.400SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last tw...

Recovery delayed again

Jm Ab (Hold, TP: SEK170.00) - Set to be a slow recovery

The Q4 results were a mixed bag, with revenues beating expectations, boosted by project starts, impairments resulting in an EBIT miss, and mixed KPIs. However, we believe the Q4 spike in unsold inventory (new all-time high) likely poses JM’s biggest challenge entering 2025, as it could hold back new starts by tying up capital. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK170 target price; we still expect a profit recovery to take longer than is reflected in the share price and see a better risk/reward elsewhere...

Share down on inventory and CF

Wide peer valuation range on market recovery expectations

Various waves of expectations for a recovery in newbuild markets have led to volatility in the sector, but an upwards share-price trend overall. Although we still await proof the new-volume market (both residential and commercial) is recovering, consensus is fuelled by falling rates. However, trailing profits under IFRS valuations are record-wide. We maintain a neutral sector view and stock-picking approach.