Danske Bank A/S: Update following upgrade of BCA to baa1

Our credit view of this issuer reflects its solid capitalisation, against its profitability, which is recovering strongly, but from low levels.

The Capital Goods Data Miner - May 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Hexagon, Metso, Sandvik, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Nibe, Wärtsilä

Danske Bank AS: 1 director

A director at Danske Bank AS sold 80,305 shares at 195.460DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...

March: Pulp shipments +8% y-o-y

Novo Nordisk AS: 1 director

A director at Novo Nordisk AS sold 9,000 shares at 915.500DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...

Rana Gruber (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Volatile iron ore prices

Rana Gruber reported a mixed set of Q1 results, with accounting and hedging effects as well as volatile iron ore prices, which blurred much of the underlying operational result. We have lowered our 2024–2026e EPS by 1–3% on the results and our updated forecasts for the latest iron ore futures curve and FX changes. We continue to find a 2024e P/E of 7x on current spot rates attractive, while we await the benefits of the company’s upgrade to Fe 65% and potential further upgrades longer-term. We re...

Latour Investment AB: 1 director

A director at Latour Investment AB bought 6,600 shares at 286.110SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 74/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years ...

The weekly navigator

In the past week: 1) we hosted an investor lunch with Latour’s CEO Johan Hjertonsson at our Stockholm office; and 2) Webrock Ventures reported its first quarterly results as a listed company, with its sights set on financial self-sufficiency by 2026.

Bravida (Buy, TP: SEK97.00) - Quality discount an opportunity

Bravida’s Q1 was mixed, with EBIT down 21% YOY, but still-solid order intake and FCF generation. While the Region Skåne governance failure seems to have been handled properly, we believe Bravida needs to rebuild its quality brand name. We still see a normalisation of the current valuation discount, and reiterate our BUY and SEK97 target price.

Danske Bank (Buy, TP: DKK235.00) - Distributions slow, but approaching

Helped by low loan losses and modest cost inflation, Danske Bank reported a Q1 ROE of 12.9%. Noting one less interest day, NII fell 0.7% QOQ adjusted for reported one-offs. While down ~30bp QOQ following the buyback programme announced in February, the bank’s CET1 ratio remains strong at 18.5% versus its >16% target. We have trimmed our target price to DKK235 (237), but with the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~6.9x, we find the valuation attractive and reiterate our BUY.