We attended Tsingtao Brewery’s 2025 analyst briefing. For 2026, it expects the beer industry to remain stable. It set volume growth as the first priority, aiming to drive revenue and profit growth through product mix optimisation. The company has introduced light dry beer, positioned between classic and white beer, to further strengthen its competitiveness in the premium segment. On the cost front, management expects COGS to increase slightly in 2026, due to rising aluminium prices. Maintain BUY...
Top Stories Economics | PMI March's PMI beat Bloomberg's consensus, with manufacturing PMI rebounding to 50.4 (+1.4pt mom) and non-manufacturing PMI returning to expansion at 50.1 (+0.6pt mom), as post-CNY activity resumed, though recovery diverged between services and construction industries. New export orders sub-index improved to 49.1 (+4.1pt mom) for manufacturing PMI and 48.8 (+4.1pt mom) for services PMI, pointing to genuine recovery in external demand. However, the purchase prices sub-in...
Greater China Economics | PMI March's PMI beat Bloomberg's consensus, with manufacturing PMI rebounding to 50.4 (+1.4pt mom) and non-manufacturing PMI returning to expansion at 50.1 (+0.6pt mom), as post-CNY activity resumed, though recovery diverged between services and construction industries. New export orders sub-index improved to 49.1 (+4.1pt mom) for manufacturing PMI and 48.8 (+4.1pt mom) for services PMI, pointing to genuine recovery in external demand. However, the purchase prices sub-i...
Tsingtao Brewery’s 2025 revenue was largely in line but net profit slightly missed estimates. In 2025, sales volume was 76.5m hl (+1% yoy), implying a 4Q25 sales volume of 7.5m hl (flat). In 4Q25, sales volume of the Tsingtao brand/secondary brand was 5.0m hl/2.5m hl (flat/+1% yoy) respectively. Sales volume of mid-range to high-end/other products was 3.8m hl/3.7m hl (+2%/-2% yoy) respectively. Product mix saw a qoq improvement in 4Q25. Maintain BUY but cut target price by 5% to HK$66.70.
Top Stories Company Results | China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$16.32/Target: HK$23.20) Mengniu’s 2025 core net profit was Rmb3,960m (-11% yoy). Ytd, liquid milk revenue has achieved high single-digit growth, driven by increases in both volume and price. For 2026, management has prioritised revenue growth, targeting mid-single-digit growth, and it also aims to maintain a stable or slightly improved operating margin. It has introduced a three-year shareholder return plan (2025-27), targeting s...
Greater China Company Results | China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$16.32/Target: HK$23.20) Mengniu’s 2025 core net profit was Rmb3,960m (-11% yoy). Ytd, liquid milk revenue has achieved high single-digit growth, driven by increases in both volume and price. For 2026, management has prioritised revenue growth, targeting mid-single-digit growth, and it also aims to maintain a stable or slightly improved operating margin. It has introduced a three-year shareholder return plan (2025-27), targeting ...
The CNY consumption data exhibited accelerated growth momentum compared with the two Golden Weeks last year, which we view as early signs of a broader consumption recovery. We favour companies benefitting from: a) segments showing initial signals of recovery, such as restaurants; b) exposure to China’s structural consumption growth drivers, particularly in services and experiential consumption; c) potential policy tailwinds; and d) overseas growth. Our preferred stocks include Anta, CR Beer, CTG...
We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed names and segments include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands China. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Greater China Sector Update | Consumer We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed segments and names include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include: Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands ...
Tsingtao Brewery’s 3Q25 revenue declined 0.2% yoy, due to a 0.3% volume growth yet offset by a 0.5% ASP decline. EBIT totalled Rmb1,683m (+10% yoy), and EBIT margin was 19.0% (+1.7ppt yoy), driven by gross margin expansion and lower selling expense. Net profit was Rmb1,370m (+2% yoy), and net margin was 15.4% (+0.3ppt yoy), with the EBIT margin expansion offset by higher tax and lower interest income. Product mix saw improvement yoy. Maintain BUY; target price unchanged at HK$69.90.
Greater China Company Results | China Resources Building Materials Technology (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.75 /Target: HK$2.06) CR Building Mat Tech’s 9M25 results were below expectations, with earnings up 7.3% yoy to Rmb331m on lower coal costs. Weather disruptions weighed on 3Q25 cement sales volume, while Guangdong prices stayed soft. Aggregates turned loss-making, prompting capex cuts. Management guided 2025 sales of 55m tonnes (-10.9% yoy) and highlighted a planned capacity-exit fund as a medium-term ...
Top Stories Company Results | CMOC (3993 HK/BUY/HK$17.04/Target: HK$20.30) CMOC’s 9M25 net profit rose 72.6% yoy to Rmb14,279.7m, driven by higher copper prices and a record output of 543,000 tonnes (+14.1% yoy). Gross margin expanded to 22.0% (+4.3ppt yoy) on stronger copper and cobalt prices, while the DRC export quota continued to constrain cobalt sales. KFM Phase 2 will add around 100,000 tonnes to copper capacity by 2027. We maintain BUY on CMOC with a higher target price of HK$20.30. Com...
We observed the following trends in holiday consumption: a) jewellery performed well on rising gold prices; b) retail and catering consumption was modest, with growth decelerating from that during the 2025 Spring Festival and Labour Day; c) specialty retail (duty-free) saw per capita spending improve; and d) consumers continued to show enthusiasm for tourism and leisure spending, with domestic long-haul travel and outbound travel gaining popularity. The lower-than-expected Macau visitor arrivals...
On 16 Sep 25, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other government departments jointly issued a plan to expand service consumption. This plan introduces 19 measures focusing on five areas. We highlight IP-related consumption and tourism as the two primary themes positioned to benefit the most. In addition, the government plans to optimise student vacation schedules by exploring the possibility of shortening winter and summer vacations while introducing spring and autumn vacations to increase the ...
In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are committed to enhancing shareholder returns. W...
Greater China Sector Updates | Consumer In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are c...
Tsingtao Brewery’s 2Q25 revenue grew 1% yoy, driven by a 1% beer sales volume growth, with ASP edging up 0.3% yoy. Net profit growth outpaced revenue growth, driven by gross margin expansion on easing raw material costs. In 2Q25, product mix saw a slight improvement yoy, with the mid-range to high-end segment accounting for 40% of the total sales volume. Maintain BUY; raise target price by 5% to HK$69.90.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb13.83/Target: Rmb16.70) Amid a challenging business environment, Aier delivered satisfactory 1H25 results with revenue and adjusted net earnings up 9.1% and 14.3% yoy respectively. The results are in line with our estimates. Management is confident about the growth outlook for Aier given rigid service demand despite the relatively weak economic conditions. Aier has further expanded its hospital network and will continue to improv...
GREATER CHINA Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb13.83/Target: Rmb16.70) 1H25: Satisfactory results; seeking growth by improving service capability and operating efficiency. China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888 CH/HOLD/Rmb71.41/Target: Rmb75.30) 2Q25: Net profit down 32% yoy and 66% qoq; fair valuation. Downgrade to HOLD. Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK/BUY/HK$14.47/Target: HK$17.00) 1H25: Revenue in line but net profit misses; generous dividend payout likely to b...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK/BUY/HK$48.75/Target: HK$70.00): 1Q25: Results in line; poised for encouraging contribution from Kling AI in 2025. Link REIT (823 HK/BUY/HK$40.90/Target: HK$44.90): FY25: Earnings beat expectations; cautious outlook for FY26. PDD Holdings (PDD US/SELL/US$119.24/Target: US$90.00): 1Q25: Earnings miss expectations; increased platform investment to weigh on profitability. Downgrade to SELL. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$51.55/Target: HK$69.90): 1...
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