We observed the following trends in holiday consumption: a) jewellery performed well on rising gold prices; b) retail and catering consumption was modest, with growth decelerating from that during the 2025 Spring Festival and Labour Day; c) specialty retail (duty-free) saw per capita spending improve; and d) consumers continued to show enthusiasm for tourism and leisure spending, with domestic long-haul travel and outbound travel gaining popularity. The lower-than-expected Macau visitor arrivals...
On 16 Sep 25, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other government departments jointly issued a plan to expand service consumption. This plan introduces 19 measures focusing on five areas. We highlight IP-related consumption and tourism as the two primary themes positioned to benefit the most. In addition, the government plans to optimise student vacation schedules by exploring the possibility of shortening winter and summer vacations while introducing spring and autumn vacations to increase the ...
In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are committed to enhancing shareholder returns. W...
Greater China Sector Updates | Consumer In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are c...
Tsingtao Brewery’s 2Q25 revenue grew 1% yoy, driven by a 1% beer sales volume growth, with ASP edging up 0.3% yoy. Net profit growth outpaced revenue growth, driven by gross margin expansion on easing raw material costs. In 2Q25, product mix saw a slight improvement yoy, with the mid-range to high-end segment accounting for 40% of the total sales volume. Maintain BUY; raise target price by 5% to HK$69.90.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb13.83/Target: Rmb16.70) Amid a challenging business environment, Aier delivered satisfactory 1H25 results with revenue and adjusted net earnings up 9.1% and 14.3% yoy respectively. The results are in line with our estimates. Management is confident about the growth outlook for Aier given rigid service demand despite the relatively weak economic conditions. Aier has further expanded its hospital network and will continue to improv...
GREATER CHINA Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb13.83/Target: Rmb16.70) 1H25: Satisfactory results; seeking growth by improving service capability and operating efficiency. China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888 CH/HOLD/Rmb71.41/Target: Rmb75.30) 2Q25: Net profit down 32% yoy and 66% qoq; fair valuation. Downgrade to HOLD. Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK/BUY/HK$14.47/Target: HK$17.00) 1H25: Revenue in line but net profit misses; generous dividend payout likely to b...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK/BUY/HK$48.75/Target: HK$70.00): 1Q25: Results in line; poised for encouraging contribution from Kling AI in 2025. Link REIT (823 HK/BUY/HK$40.90/Target: HK$44.90): FY25: Earnings beat expectations; cautious outlook for FY26. PDD Holdings (PDD US/SELL/US$119.24/Target: US$90.00): 1Q25: Earnings miss expectations; increased platform investment to weigh on profitability. Downgrade to SELL. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$51.55/Target: HK$69.90): 1...
Focusing on its “1+1+1+2+N” product portfolio, Tsingtao Brewery aims to prioritise consumer-centric strategies to achieve sales volume and profit growth. Management expects accelerated expansion in the Southern China market this year with increased resource allocation and is confident in meeting the company’s sales targets in 2Q25. On shareholder return, management expects to gradually raise the dividend payout ratio going forward. Maintain BUY and target price of HK$66.70 unchanged.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK/BUY/HK$4.89/Target: HK$6.20) FY25 revenue grew 13.2% yoy, while adjusted net profit surged 35.6% yoy, in line with our and market’s estimates. Ali Health guides FY26 revenue and adjusted net profit growth of 5-10% and 10-20% yoy respectively. We lower our FY26 revenue and earnings estimates, but still expect robust adjusted net profit CAGR of 20% for FY26-28 on an improving product mix for the direct sales business and contin...
GREATER CHINA Results Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK/BUY/HK$4.89/Target: HK$6.20) FY25: Results in line; targets adjusted net earnings growth of 10-20% yoy in FY26. Trip.com (9961 HK/BUY/HK$505.50/Target: HK$635.00) 1Q25: Earnings beat; international tourism and AI integration investments as key catalysts. Update Tsingtao Brewery (168 HK/BUY/HK$56.45/Target: HK$66.70) Focus on sales volume and profit growth; aims to raise dividend payo...
During the Labour Day holiday (1-5 May), Macau's visitor arrivals significantly beat the government's expectation. Retail and catering sales showed a modest improvement in terms of yoy growth compared with the Chinese New Year holiday, while home appliance sales continued to benefit from the trade-in programme, with premium products demonstrating robust growth. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the China consumer sector. Our top picks include CR Beer, Mengniu, and Moutai.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Market watch around May holiday: New-home sales recovery weakens in Apr 25; the trend of Hong Kong resident travelling north remains strong. Sector Consumer Strong Macau visitations and robust home appliance sales during Labour Day Holiday. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/BUY/Rp2,540/Target:...
Tsingtao Brewery’s 1Q25 revenue grew 3% yoy, driven by a 4% beer sales volume growth but offset by a 1% drop in ASP. The product mix saw a slight yoy improvement, with the mid-range-to-high-end segment accounting for 45% of total sales volume. The company accelerated its new commerce and new retail expansion, with online sales reaching a new historical high and O2O retail achieving rapid growth in 1Q25. Maintain BUY and an unchanged target price of HK$66.70.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Online Travel Agencies We saw continuous vitality in cultural and tourism consumption based on 1Q25 travel data and Labour Day travel data projections. Key travellers’ preference trends during Labour Day 2025 will be long-haul travel, inbound tourism and county-level travel. With favourable policy support such as the implementation of "instant tax refunds" for outbound travel, we expect to see promising revenue and earnings growth from OTA companies in 1H25. Maintain OVER...
GREATER CHINA Sector Online Travel Agencies: Travel data preview: Expecting a vibrant 2025 Labour Day Results BYD Electronic (285 HK/BUY/HK$31.80/Target: HK$41.20): 1Q25: Margins below expectations; automotive business to lead the charge in 2025. Maintain BUY. China Resources Building Materials Technology (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.69/Target: HK$2.30): 1Q25: In line; severe drought in Guangxi restricts cement products outflow. China State Construction Engineering Corporation (601668 CH/BUY/Rmb5.49 /Targe...
Tsingtao Brewery’s 2024 results missed expectations. However, in 4Q24, the company’s product mix improved both yoy and qoq, with mid- to high-end volume growing by 11% yoy and accounting for 50% of the total volume (vs 47% in 4Q23 and 41% in 3Q24). This product mix improvement thus led to a 2% ASP expansion both yoy and qoq in 4Q24. Maintain BUY; raise target price by 3% to HK$66.70.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$6.70/Target: HK$7.50) CCB’s 2024 earnings (+0.9% yoy) were above our expectation, mainly driven by its resilient NIM on better deposit cost management, strong trading gains and lower impairment. Asset quality remains solid but pressure on the retail segment is increasing. MoF will inject Rmb105b of new capital into CCB which will result in a 4.3% equity dilution and 50bp boost in CET1 ratio. We expect a largely neutral market reacti...
On 16 March, the State Council issued a plan on special initiatives to boost consumption, aiming to increase spending power by increasing income and reducing financial burdens, generate effective demand through high-quality supply, and improve the consumption environment to strengthen consumers’ willingness to spend. In the China consumer sector, we prefer Anta, CR Beer, Galaxy, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Yili. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
We do not expect a strong consumption momentum for the upcoming CNY holiday, but expect home appliance, Macau gaming, movie and retail to be the bright spots. We prefer Anta, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Sands in China’s consumer space.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.