reports
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
China Cement Weekly: Unfavourable weather condition and tail-heavy LGS...
Unfavourable weather condition and tail-heavy LGSB issuance are still holding back cement demand. The rebound in cement prices seems to be losing steam, especially in the southern and eastern regions. Shipment volume fell 4.7% wow last week, largely dragged by Typhoon Yagi. Inventory remained stable despite weak demand due to stricter production output control. Acceleration of LGSB issuance and favourable weather condition could boost cement demand in 4Q24. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT.
- Ringo Tang Chi Yu
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK): 1H24: Below expectations; exploring oppor...
Anhui Conch reported 1H24 earnings of Rmb3,325.6m (-48.6% yoy), representing 29% of our full-year estimate and below expectations. Gross margin for self-produced products fell to 23.0% (-4.6ppt yoy). The slump in cement ASP of 21.6% was steeper than the 16.0% reduction in cement’s unit production cost. 1H24 cement and clinker sales volume declined to 126m tonnes (-3.4% yoy), and management expects 2024 demand to drop 8-10% yoy. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$19.50.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Damon Shen
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Ming San Soong
- Ringo Tang Chi Yu
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Thursday, August 29, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK/BUY/HK$16.46/Target: HK$19.50) Anhui Conch reported 1H24 earnings of Rmb3,325.6m (-48.6% yoy), representing 29% of our full-year estimate and below expectations. Gross margin for self-produced products fell to 23.0% (-4.6ppt yoy). The slump in cement ASP of 21.6% was steeper than the 16.0% reduction in cement’s unit production cost. 1H24 cement and clinker sales volume declined to 126m tonnes (-3.4% yoy), and management expects 2024 demand to...
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
PRU PRUDENTIAL PLC
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
002352 S.F. HOLDING CO. LTD. CLASS A
0914 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
06862 HAIDILAO INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
01209 CHINA RESOURCES MIXC LIFESTYLE SERVICES (RED CHIP)
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
02015 LI AUTO INC
- Ceilica Su Rui
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK): 2023: In line; all set to expand market s...
Anhui Conch Cement reported 2023 earnings of Rmb10,689.2m (-32.6% yoy), representing 94% of our earnings forecast for 2023, in line with our expectations. Gross margin of 42.5 grade cement was resilient at 25.2% (-3.2 ppt), thanks to the 17.2% decline in fuel and power costs. Subsequent to 2023’s 0.7% yoy growth in cement and clinker sales volume, management is targeting another 4.9% yoy growth to 299m tonnes in 2024. Maintain BUY. Target price lowered to HK$21.00.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Ceilica Su Rui
- Greater China Research Team
- Jo Yee Ng
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Ming San Soong
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Thursday, March 21, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK/BUY/HK$17.20/Target: HK$21.00) 2023: In line; all set to expand market share. CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK/BUY/HK$6.41/Target: HK$7.80) 2023: Results in line; expects double-digit revenue and earnings growth in 2024. Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$8.83/Target: HK$11.00) 2023: Results beat on margins again; upgrade to BUY. Raise target price from HK$6.50 to HK$11.00. Innovent Biologics (1801 HK/BUY/HK$39.35/Target: HK$60.00) 2023: Results ...
PRU PRUDENTIAL PLC
02331 LI NING COMPANY LIMITED
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
0914 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
1833 PING AN HEALTHCARE AND TECHNOLOGY COMPANY LIMITED
1093 CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP LTD
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
China Commodities: Weekly: US 4Q23 GDP trounces expectations; weak cop...
Stronger-than-expected 4Q23 US annualised GDP data has pushed back the timeline of the first rate cut. Funds are increasingly bearish on copper, with weak global demand outweighing concerns on supply disruptions. The rebound in flat products’ prices saw steel mills’ margins recovering, but it is unsustainable despite rising production due to weak demand amid the low season. Cement demand was hampered by the first cold snap in 2024, with construction continuing to slow as CNY approaches.
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
China Commodities: Weekly: Mar 24 rate cut optimism fades.
Optimism about a rate cut in Mar 24 faded amid resilient US economic data and hawkish comments from Fed officials, with gold prices sliding to a one-month low last week. The recent sharp declines in iron ore and coke prices have helped in stabilising steel mills’ margins. However, demand for both long and flat products continues to slump amid a low season. We are concerned about reports of the central government instructing heavily-indebted local governments to delay/halt some state-funded infra...
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
China Commodities Weekly: US dollar tumbles on easing Fed rate hike fe...
The US’ weaker-than-expected Oct 23 CPI has eased market concerns of further rate hikes by the Fed, dragging the US dollar to a two-month low. Expectations of more stimulus measures from China are boosting demand outlook for industrial metals and iron ore. Steel mills’ margins expansion continued on the rebound of steel prices, though consumption has slowed. Cement shipment slowed as the northern region entered the low season and the southern region encountered rainy weather.
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
China Commodities Weekly: Easing fears of further rate hikes supportin...
Gold and copper prices gained strength last week with the less hawkish signals from Fed officials and cooling US’ jobs data. Upside for gold prices could be very limited given the declining risk premium on the Israel-Hamas war and rising risk appetite, whereas demand prospects for copper are still clouded by China’s fragile recovery. Domestic construction activities are continuing to gain traction while the recovery in steel prices is driving a margin recovery for both steel mills and cement man...
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK): 3Q23: In line; margins compressed by lack...
Anhui Conch Cement reported 9M23 earnings of Rmb8,672.2m (-30.2% yoy), representing 73% of our full-year estimate and in line with expectations. 3Q23 margin was down by 5.9ppt qoq to 15.5%. Management sees limited downside to thermal coal prices and expect them to rebound in 4Q23 as we enter the heating season. Gross margin is likely to remain flat qoq in 4Q23 as the rebound of cement prices is expected to be offset by higher coal prices. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$28.20.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Greater China Research Team
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Ken Lee
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Terence Chiu
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Wednesday, November 1, 2023
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI September’s improvement was a flash in the pan. Sector Property Top 100 developers’ Oct 23 sales weaker than expected; government housing supply to accelerate. Results Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK/BUY/HK$19.52/Target: HK$28.20) 3Q23: In line; margins compressed by lacklustre demand and high coal prices. Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$14.88/Target: HK$22.50) 3Q23: Slight miss; expect a better 4Q23. Chongqing Brewery (600132 CH/BUY/Rmb78.50/Target: Rmb100.50) 3Q23: ...
600132 CHONGQING BREWERY CO.LTD CLASS A
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
601919 COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS A
0914 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2747 ESTUN AUTOMATION
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
2359 WUXI APPTEC CO LTD
9988 ALIBABA (9988 HK)
603259 WUXI APPTEC CO. LTD. CLASS A
1876:HK BUDWEISER BREWING CO APAC LTD
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
China Commodities Weekly: Safe-haven assets rally on flight-to-safety ...
The flight to safety and a dovish Fed have continued to weigh on treasury yields, which have declined from its 16-year high to 4.58%. The US’ Sep 23 CPI has stoked expectations of another rate hike in Dec 23. More Chinese steel mills are commencing plant maintenance amid deteriorating margins, which has weighed on iron ore demand prospect. Resumption of construction activities remains still slower than expected, with weekly rebar/cement consumption still down 18% and 36% yoy respectively.
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
China Commodities Weekly: Gold extended its losing streak from 25 sep ...
A hawkish Fed, which led to rising treasury yields and a strengthening US dollar, continued to weigh on gold prices, which have been on a losing streak since 25 Sep 23. LME copper saw the widest contango since 1994 with cash-to-three-month discount reaching US$70/mt, partly dragged by concerns on near-term demand. Steel mills saw a steep margin deterioration amid weakening product spot prices and raw material price upticks, which should help moderate production activities.
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
China Commodities Weekly: Hawkish Fed and gloomy China recovery outloo...
The Fed maintained interest rates last week but guided for one more rate hike by end- 23. The Fed’s hawkish guidance and China’s gloomy recovery outlook have weighed on the demand outlook of base metals. Steel mills’ margin erosion and the upcoming steel production curbs are expected to drag on iron ore consumption. The rebound in cement prices continues to be supported by demand recovery. Guangdong is seeing an intensifying price war given the influx of products from Guangxi.
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
China Commodities Weekly: Better-than-expected economic figures raise ...
China’s and the US’ Aug 23 economic figures came in above expectations, raising hopes of a soft landing and boosting the demand outlook for base metals. Iron ore prices rallied 8.5% wow given steel mills’ robust production activities and fresh stimulus announced, which further compressed steel mills’ profitability. Cement prices’ six-month downtrend reversed last week with average prices up 0.5% wow. Shipment has continued to pick up but the resumption of production contributed to inventory buil...
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
China Commodities Weekly: Signs of economic stabilisation from improvi...
Metal prices have been boosted by China’s Aug 23 CPI figures which have returned to positive territory, paring some of the losses last week given the strength of the US dollar. Iron ore prices corrected last week as Chinese authorities stepped up intervention and warned futures brokers not to hype up iron ore prices. Steel production activities expand further as steel mills anticipate consumption to pick up further. Cement shipments continue to recover as weather conditions improve, but rising c...
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
China Commodities Weekly: Hopeful on demand recovery as we enter the p...
China’s disappointing 2Q23 GDP growth has hampered the demand outlook for base metals. 1H23 property sales fell 5.3% yoy and new home prices reversed down in Jun 23, with no signs of property market stabilisation yet. Steel production output continued hovering at high levels as 64.07% of steel mills are currently profit-making. The unregulated production is expected to accelerate inventory build-up. Cement prices are bottoming out as inventory level is falling and production output has moderated...
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Anhui Conch (914 HK): 1H23: In line; industry-leading performance.
Conch reported 1H23 earnings of Rmb6,755.6m (-32.2% yoy), in line with our expectations. Gross margin of self-produced products remained resilient at 26.8%, (-6.11ppt yoy), while sales volume of self-produced cement products grew 1.78% yoy compared with the national average of 1.3%. Conch continued to outperform the industry in 1H23 with its market share expanding to 13%, while its share of the industry’s profit also exceeded 50%. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$28.30.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Jo Yee Ng
- Ken Lee
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Terence Chiu
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Monday, August 28, 2023
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Anhui Conch (914 HK/BUY/HK$22.00/Target: HK$28.30) 1H23: In line; industry-leading performance. China Resources Gas (1193 HK/BUY/HK$22.35/Target: HK$26.90) 1H23: In line; gas sales growth offset by weak new connections. China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888 CH/BUY/Rmb107.50/Target: Rmb138.00) 2Q23: Margin a key concern. EVE Energy (300014 HK/BUY/Rmb48.60/Target: Rmb92.00) 2Q23: Miss on margins but beat on revenue. Maintain BUY. Cut target price to Rmb92.00. Frontage H...
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
01177 SINO BIOPHARMACEUTICAL LIMITED
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
0914 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
§3§3 CHINA RESOURCES CEMENT
1833 PING AN 1833 HK PAGD
1521 FRONTAGE HOLDINGS CORP
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
China Commodities Weekly: Worsening property crisis weighing on econom...
The strengthening US dollar and uptick in treasury yield have both weighed on bullion’s appeal. Weak trade data from China has also triggered concerns on a slowdown in industrial activities. Steel spot prices slumped further, which resulted in a fast erosion of steel mills’ margin. Steel output continued to pick up despite weak downstream demand. Cement enterprises are attempting to raise price quotations due to an improvement in weather conditions last week, although market acceptance could be ...
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