We raise 2024 forecasts on China’s PV sales growth and PEV sales growth from +8%/+21% to +10%/+24% on bigger-than-expected subsidies for the cash-for-clunker program and zero downpayment auto loans. Meanwhile, we lift the target prices of BYD, Geely, GWM, GAC and Yadea to HK$160.00/HK$13.00/HK$13.50/HK$3.30 /HK$20.00 respectively. Upgrade GWM from HOLD to BUY, and upgrade GAC from SELL to HOLD. Top BUY: CATL, Geely and Yadea. Top SELL: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng.
GWM posted upbeat 1Q24 results with revenue and net profit growing 48%/17.5x yoy to Rmb42.86b/Rmb3,228m respectively. These far outpace the 25% sales volume growth, due to ASP hikes and margin improvement from the optimisation of sales mix and export growth. Going forward, we expect margins to fall back to normal levels, based on the weakening sales momentum domestically. Maintain HOLD. Target price: HK$10.50.
China’s PEV sales grew 9% yoy and 12% wow during the week of 15-21 Apr 24, implying a 44.9% market share. BYD, Zeekr and XPeng saw sales rebound during the week, in line with expectations; Aion, Li Auto and Tesla posted lower sales, below expectations. Tesla posted disappointing 1Q24 results on a sales drop, and cut prices of Model Y/3 by 5-6%. Li Auto also cut prices by 5-7%, intensifying the price war. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng. Top BUYs: CATL and Yadea.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile China’s PEV sales grew 9% yoy and 12% wow during the week of 15-21 Apr 24, implying a 44.9% market share. BYD, Zeekr and XPeng saw sales rebound during the week, in line with expectations; Aion, Li Auto and Tesla posted lower sales, below expectations. Tesla posted disappointing 1Q24 results on a sales drop, and cut prices of Model Y/3 by 5-6%. Li Auto also cut prices by 5-7%, intensifying the price war. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng. ...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: EV sales rebound for two weeks in a row, but price war intensifies. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng. Top BUYs: CATL and Yadea. Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$102.30/Target: HK$120.00) 1Q24: Solid results, more positive updates to advanced packaging business. EVE Energy (300014 HK/SELL/ Rmb34.27/Target: Rmb20.00) ...
China’s PEV sales grew 21% yoy and 19% wow during the week of 8-14 Apr 24, implying a 46% market share. BYD, Li Auto and XPeng posted in-line sales during the week, while Tesla’s and Zeekr’s sales came in lower than expected due to competition. We expect Zeekr’s sales to recover, based on its better product qualities vs rivals and new model debuts. CATL posted in-line 1Q24 results with core earnings growing 19% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, Li Auto, XPeng. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay.
We raise our 2024 forecasts on China’s vehicle sales growth and EV sales growth from -5.1%/+10.8% to +7.5%/+21.7% respectively on higher 1Q24 sales given bigger-thanexpected price cuts, stronger exports and stimulus. Despite higher sales growth, most auto companies’ earnings will still be pressured by price cuts. PV sales declined 10.6% yoy and 39.7% wow in the first week of April due to the Tomb Sweeping Festival holiday. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng. Top BUYs: CATL a...
Most OEMs, battery material suppliers and automobile dealers saw a margin squeeze in 2H23/4Q23, due to a drop in product prices. However, automotive part companies focusing on high value-added products, eg CATL, Desay SV and Fuyao Glass, enjoyed margin improvement during the period, due to optimisation of product mix. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Remove Tuopu from top BUY list on Tesla risk. Top BUYs: CATL and Desay. Add BYD and Li Auto to top SELL list. Top SELLs: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng.
GWM’s 2023 and 4Q23 net profit came in as expected at Rmb7,022m (-15% yoy) and Rmb2,027m (+1,818% yoy/-44% qoq) respectively, with the lower-than-expected SG&A offsetting the misses on ASP and gross margin. We maintain 2024-25 net profit forecasts at Rmb7,721m/Rmb8,355m respectively, and introduce 2026 net profit forecast of Rmb8,518m. Maintain HOLD. Target price: HK$9.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI First expansion in six months. Sector Aviation Airlines: Expecting a turnaround in profitability in 2024 with moderate international travel recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Macau Gaming Mar 24 GGR up 6% mom; May 24 Golden Week a potential catalyst. Results China Feihe (6186 HK/BUY/HK$3.68/Target: HK$4.43) 2023: Results in line; healthy channel inventory and improved operating efficiency to drive growth. Upgrade to BUY. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$5.4...
PEV market share reached a record of 48% last week due to price cuts. BYD’s retail sales rebounded by 27% wow in the week ending 10 Mar 24 after price cuts of 10-20% on seven major models. Li Auto’s retail sales rebounded due to launches of 2024 Li L7/L8/L9. Despite the strong sales last week, PEVs are facing stiffening price competition. CATL's market share in China’s power battery market hit a record of 55% in Feb 24. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Tuopu, Desay. Top SELL: XPeng.
Major automakers saw their PEV insurance registrations rebound last week due to price cuts. BYD’s retail sales rebounded less than expected last week even after implementing price cuts. The market response to Li Mega turned out to be disappointing, with over 10,000 orders cancelled. Europe and the US are abandoning all-electric plans and restricting Chinese-made electric vehicles. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELL: XPeng. Top BUYs: CATL, Tuopu, Desay.
Ytd, EV sales came in worse than expected. BYD’s 20% price cut on Qin Plus DM-i triggered a new round of price war. This will leave no winner as major players will keep engaging in the price war for a sustained period while small players like HiPhi will possibly be edged out of the arena. Following the heavy snowfall in Hubei, the Hainan incident reminds us of the limitation of EVs. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Li Auto. Top BUY: CATL. Upgrade Xusheng from HOLD to BUY on valuat...
As this week is the Chinese New Year holiday, the weekly EV insurance registration numbers will only be posted next week. The most eye-catching news is the snow in Hubei last week, which crippled hundreds of EVs on highways. This shows the limitation of BEVs in regard to long-haul drive and recharging. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s auto sector. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Li Auto. Top BUY: CATL. Upgrade GAC from SELL to HOLD on valuation.
PEV market share dipped 1.2ppt wow to a 38-week low of 28.4%. BYD’s and Li Auto’s market shares also dropped 0.3ppt/0.9ppt wow to 29.5%/4.5% respectively during the week. Chinese authorities reiterated plans to boost automobile sales and exports, but we see limited impacts. Most auto stocks rallied along with the market this week due to the state’s bailout. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT on the sector on a grim outlook. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Li Auto. We are adding CATL to our top BUY list as a hedge.
EV sales in China continued to rebound in the fourth week of Jan 24, but remained low due to seasonal factors. We keep our estimate on China’s 2024 PEV sales growth at 11%, below consensus forecast of +20% yoy, based on destocking and diminishing effect of subsidies. BYD and Ganfeng posted disappointing 4Q23 net profit guidance on price cuts, triggering further downgrades. CATL’s guided 2023 profit beats market estimates, triggering a rebound. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Li A...
EV sales in China rebounded in the first week of Jan 24, driven by price cuts, which imply lower margins. BYD offered 2.5-9.0% discounts for the Ocean series. Tesla announced 2-6% price cuts in China. Li Auto cut prices for all of its models by over Rmb30,000. Looking into 2024, we keep our China PEV sales estimate at 9.9m units, well below consensus, on the diminishing effect of stimulus and destocking. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Li Auto.
GWM’s 2023 sales came in at 1.23m units (+15% yoy), missing its target by 23%. For 2024, GWM targets 1.9m units in sales (+54% yoy), which we deem impossible given the slowdown in China’s PV market and escalating competition. Based on the unchanged sales estimate of 1.23m units/1.35m units/1.50m units and lower ASP and margins, we slash our 2023-25 net profit forecasts by 13%/27%/28% respectively. Downgrade from BUY to HOLD. Cut target price from HK$13.50 to HK$9.00.
The development of China’s auto market ytd came in as expected with sales weakening, inventories piling up and car prices falling. We maintain our forecasts on China’s 2024 PV and PEV sales growth at -6%/11% respectively, down from 10%/37% in 2023, based on a higher comparison base in 2023, the rollback of stimulus and destocking. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Ganfeng Lithium. Downgrade Li Auto from BUY to SELL, and downgrade Great Wall Motor from BUY to HOLD.
PEV insurance registrations in China grew 76% yoy and fell 20.3% mom/46% wow in the first week of 2024. However, PEV market share fell from 40% in early-Dec 23 to 31% during the week. Except for Aito, all EV brands saw a drop in insurance registrations, including BYD, Tesla, Li Auto and XPeng, as the year-end promotions had exhausted buying power. We keep our 2024 China PEV sales forecast at 9.9m units (+11% yoy). Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Ganfeng Lithium.
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