China’s PV sales rebounded last week, with PEV growth surging from below 5% to over 30% due to subsidies and new models. Geely and XPeng led while BYD and Li Auto lagged. Vehicle exports rose 26% yoy in August, driven by gains in the EU, Africa and the Middle East. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL (target price raised to Rmb520) and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China’s PV sales rebounded last week, with PEV growth surging from below 5% to over 30% due to subsidies and new models. Geely and XPeng led, while BYD and Li Auto lagged. Vehicle exports rose 26% yoy in August, driven by gains in the EU, Africa, and Middle East. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL (target price raised to Rmb520) and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Sector Update | Healthcare Falling interest rates are expected to significant...
This week's key highlights include insights from a China Automobile Dealer Association forum and a visit to Lynk & Co's Chengdu plant, China's historic L3 ADAS policy approval, and weekly sales updates. The market responded positively to these developments, prompting target price upgrades for Tuopu, Sanhua, Joyson Electronics and Fuyao Glass. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT for China's auto sector, with Geely and CATL as top BUYs, and BYD and Li Auto as top SELLs.
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China has launched a three-month MIIT-led campaign to curb online misconduct in the auto industry, using selfinspections and penalties to reduce misinformation and promote competition on product quality. China’s PV insurance registrations fell 30% wow due to seasonality and consumers’ wait-and-see sentiment. Lithium carbonate prices correct on the production resumption of CATL’s Jianxiawo lithium mine. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s auto sector; top...
The price war took its toll on Chinese auto companies in 2Q25, causing a margin squeeze along the supply chain. Price wars are inevitable, despite the state’s antiinvolution campaign. Large OEMs like Geely, BYD and GWM will survive the industry consolidation. For young companies, we expect XPeng, Leapmotor and Aito to thrive. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
GWM posted in-line 2Q25 net profit of Rmb4,586m (+19% yoy/+162% qoq), mainly due to government subsidies and forex gains. Stripping them out, core net profit plunged 66% yoy to Rmb1.88b in 1H25, missing our estimate. Looking ahead, GWM will continue to see earnings headwinds from stiff competition. We maintain our 2025-27 core net profit estimates at Rmb6,625m/Rmb7,515m/Rmb8,578m respectively. Maintain SELL. Target price: HK$10.00
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI August's manufacturing PMI edged up slightly to 49.4 (+0.1pt mom), while non-manufacturing PMI improved modestly to 50.3 (+0.2pt mom). However, construction PMI fell to 49.1 (-1.5pt mom), below the expansion threshold for the first time since January. With moderating decline in new orders and new export orders, PMI for large-sized enterprise (50.8, +0.5pt mom) and small-sized enterprise (46.6, +0.2pt mom) both improved. Overall, a mixed bag. Results Alibaba Group...
GREATER CHINA Results Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$115.70/Target: HK$170.00): 1QFY26: Better-than-expected CMR and cloud revenue growth; encouraging quick commerce outlook. BYD Company (1211 HK/SELL/HK$114.40/Target: HK$90.00): 2Q25: Earnings down over 30% yoy/qoq, missing estimates on margins. Downgrade from BUY to SELL. Cut target price from HK$142.00 to HK$90.00. BYD Electronic (285 HK/BUY/HK$41.18/Target: HK$51.80): 1H25: Margin misses due to product mix shift; growth story remains unchange...
China’s yoy PV and PEV sales growth returned to positive territory (at +6.2%/+13.5%) in the 33rd week of 2025, as OEMs cut prices again. Geely’s insurance registrations spiked 21% wow during the week, beating our expectation, driven by the blockbuster new model Galaxy A7. However, BYD, Tesla China and Li Auto still posted a yoy sales decline during the week, albeit a wow rebound. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu.
China’s PEV yoy sales growth turned negative (at -0.5%) during the week. BYD and Li Auto posted a yoy sales decline. We expect EV sales to recover from September with the launch of new models and interest subsidies for auto loans. Lithium carbonate prices rebounded to >Rmb80,000/tonne due to better supply discipline. We upgrade Ganfeng Lithium from HOLD to BUY thanks to lithium price recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: Yoy growth of China’s PEV sales turns negative; lithium price recovers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$18.95/Target: HK$42.00) 2Q25: Core earnings surge 93% yoy, in line; raise target price to HK$42.00. Maintain BUY. Hysan Development (14 HK/BUY/HK$15.67/Target: HK$17.84) ...
China’s PV insurance registrations rebounded 5.3% wow but dipped 1.9% yoy in the 31st week of 2025, marking the third consecutive week of a yoy decline, due to the stand-off between OEMs and consumers on pricing. PEV yoy sales growth slowed to below 10% (at 7.5%) again during the week. Three out of the eight OEMs on our radar posted yoy sales declines. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Downgrade Li Auto to SELL.
China’s PV insurance registrations rebounded 13% wow but dipped 1.6% yoy in the 30th week of 2025, marking the second consecutive week of yoy decline. PEV yoy sales growth remained at only 10% during the week. Four out of the eight OEMs on our radar posted yoy sales declines due to the stand-off between OEMs and consumers on pricing after the discounts came to an end at end-June. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu.
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI Rebound falters, weighed down by weaker construction and input cost pressures. Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales pressured by anti-involution initiatives. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.26/Target: HK$12.00) ...
China’s PV insurance registrations rebounded 7% wow but dipped 0.5% yoy in the 29th week of 2025. BYD is suffering online backlash for sponsoring CNMFT. The China government is mulling over measures to crack down on zero-mileage secondhand cars. GWM reported an upbeat 2Q25 net profit on exceptional gains. We raise our 2025 net profit forecast by 26% and keep core earnings estimates unchanged. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu.
GWM posted a set of mixed preliminary 2Q25 results with upbeat reported net profit (Rmb4,586m/+18.8% yoy/+161.9% qoq) and in-line core net profit (Rmb2,113m/-41.7% yoy/+43.8% qoq). 2Q25 earnings recovered on a sales rebound, higher exceptional items and government grants. Given the 1H25 results, we raise our 2025 reported net profit forecast by 26% and keep those for 2026-27 unchanged. Meanwhile, our 2025-27 core net profit forecasts remain unchanged. Maintain SELL. Target price: HK$10.00.
China’s PV insurance registrations edged up 0.8% yoy and fell 8.8% wow in the 28th week of 2025 due to the roll-back of promotional discounts. Geely will privatise Zeekr via a US$2.4b cash or share-swap deal, creating short-term cash and dilution pressure but enabling long-term strategic synergies. The State Council is mulling measures to curb price war. We downgrade Ganfeng Lithium from BUY to HOLD on bigger-thanexpected 2Q25 loss. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales growth slows to 0.8% yoy. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Update Sun Hung Kai & Co (86 HK/BUY/HK$3.47/Target: HK$5.86) 1H25 Preview: Positive market sentiment improves asset valuations. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights Rukun Raharja (RAJA IJ/NOT RATED/Rp2,590) Building the future o...
China’s PV insurance registrations grew 16.9% yoy but fell 30.4% wow in the 27th week of 2025 due to the roll-back of promotional discounts, in line with expectations. On 9 July, BYD announced L4 smart parking and promised to take responsibility for any losses incurred; Geely unveiled the ground-breaking SEA-S platform and its new flagship hybrid SUV, Zeekr 9X. Chongqing recently announced a new EV subsidies policy. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu.
China’s PV insurance registrations grew 6.9% yoy/4.0% wow in the 26th week of 2025, in line with expectations, while BYD’s sales fell 5% wow during the week. The rollback of discounts and the high inventory level constitute earnings headwinds. We cut BYD’s target price from HK$163.30 to HK$142.00. Geely raised its 2025 sales target to 3m units on upbeat sales. We raise target price for Geely from HK$31.00 to HK$35.00. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu.
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