GWM posted a disappointing 1Q25 net profit of Rmb1.75b (-46% yoy/-23% qoq) on lower-than-expected ASP and margins, due to fierce price competition in the domestic market and a dip in the more lucrative overseas sales. Looking ahead, GWM will continue to see earnings headwinds from stiff domestic competition and slowing overseas sales. We cut our 2025-27 net profit forecasts by 32%/34%/35% to Rmb9.6b/ Rmb10.65b/Rmb11.9b respectively. Downgrade to SELL. Cut target price to HK$10.00.
This week, we have takeaways from the 2025 Shanghai Auto Show. OEMs like BYD and Geely showcased promising new models, eg Ocean-S, Galaxy Warship. BYD’s 1Q25 net profit doubled yoy, in line with expectations. GWM’s 1Q25 earnings missed estimates on margins. We downgrade GWM from BUY to SELL. EVE Energy’s 1Q25 results beat estimates on shipments and margins. We upgrade EVE Energy from SELL to BUY. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV.
Sector Automobile This week, we have takeaways from the 2025 Shanghai Auto Show. OEMs like BYD and Geely showcased promising new models, eg Ocean-S, Galaxy Warship. BYD’s 1Q25 net profit doubled yoy, in line with expectations. GWM’s 1Q25 earnings missed estimates on margins. We downgrade GWM from BUY to SELL. EVE Energy’s 1Q25 results beat estimates on shipments and margins. We upgrade EVE Energy from SELL to BUY. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV. Consumer The Politb...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: Takeaways from Shanghai Auto Show 2025. 1Q25 results review for BYD, GWM and GAC. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV. Consumer: Politburo meeting: Emphasising income improvement and service consumption; prefer consumer companies with strong cost control and domestic focus. Results BYD Company (1211 HK/BUY/HK$397.00/Target: HK$510.00): 1Q25: Earnings double yoy, in line. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$510.00. EVE Energy (300014 HK/BU...
China’s PV insurance registrations rose 13% yoy and 4% wow in the 15th week of 2025, with PEV market share climbing to 53.0% as EV sales surged and ICE-cars demand softened. Galaxy and Zeekr underperformed amid rising competition from BYD’s DiPilot models and broader EV price cuts. Management will adjust pricing and launch five new models at two-month intervals, with major upgrades in July-August. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV.
GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation Deflationary pressures remain. Sector Automobile Weekly: Direct impacts from US tariffs contained; indirect spillovers uncertain. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV. Update Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$81.55/Target: HK$108.80) 1Q25 sales me...
US tariffs on Chinese autos (up to 150%) have limited direct impact but raise global trade tensions, posing risks to demand and earnings. China’s auto sales grew 25% yoy but fell 30% wow in the 14th week of 2025, mainly due to Qingming Festival. PEV market share remained at 50.1%. BYD and Geely respectively guide for 86-119% yoy and 205-233% yoy spike in 1Q25 earnings, beating expectations. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV.
China’s auto sales increased wow in the 13th week of 2025, with PEVs accounting for 50.1% of the market. BYD achieved strong EV sales growth in March and 1Q25, driven by record overseas deliveries and new model launches. Geely's March sales surged 54% yoy, driven by strong EV growth. The US’ 25% tariff has limited impact on Chinese OEMs but would hit auto parts companies’ 2025 earnings by 2.5-8%. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, CATL and Desay SV.
GWM posted in-line 4Q24 net profit of Rmb2,264m (+11.7% yoy/-32.4% qoq). The qoq earnings decline was due to the Rmb4b in year-end bonus for staff. Looking ahead, GWM’s earnings growth will be driven by the strong product cycle and expansion in overseas markets. We maintain our 2025-26 net profit forecasts at Rmb14.1b/Rmb16.1b respectively and introduce 2027 net profit forecast of Rmb18.35b. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$17.50.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$6.70/Target: HK$7.50) CCB’s 2024 earnings (+0.9% yoy) were above our expectation, mainly driven by its resilient NIM on better deposit cost management, strong trading gains and lower impairment. Asset quality remains solid but pressure on the retail segment is increasing. MoF will inject Rmb105b of new capital into CCB which will result in a 4.3% equity dilution and 50bp boost in CET1 ratio. We expect a largely neutral market reacti...
GREATER CHINA Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$6.70/Target: HK$7.50): 2024: Above expectations on better NIM; recapitalisation plan is finalised. China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877 HK/HOLD/HK$8.05/Target: HK$8.50): 2024: Bottom line misses; targets revenue growth of 10% yoy in 2025. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/BUY/HK$14.20/Target: HK$23.00): 4Q24: Earnings in line with estimates. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$23.00. Haier Smart Home (6690 HK/BUY/HK$24.70/Target: HK$37.80): 2024: 4Q...
China auto sales declined wow in the 10th week of 2025, with a 55.7% share of the PEV market. BYD successfully raised HK$43.4b (US$5.6b) in an H-share placement. ASEAN investors are becoming increasingly positive on China’s auto sector, with BYD and Geely leading in AI/ADAS and overseas expansion, while risks like margins, US tariffs, and chip restrictions remain manageable. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, CATL and Desay SV.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Monthly Reiterate BUY on JBM Healthcare. Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales decline wow due to seasonal factors. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao and Desay SV. Results Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company (1833 HK/BUY/HK$7.72/Target:HK$11.00) 2024: Satisfactory results; expect ...
China auto sales rebounded in the ninth week of 2025, with a 53.8% PEV market share. BYD plans to issue 118m H-shares to raise around US$5.6b, aiming at funding the construction of overseas plants. Geely’s AI Technology Launch event introduced the "Qianli Haohan" intelligent driving system featuring a five-tier framework. With regard to US tariffs on Mexico and China, direct impacts on Chinese automakers are limited. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, CATL and Desay SV.
China’s auto sales picked up in the eighth week of 2025, but consumers’ wait-and-see sentiment continues amid the transitional period of product upgrades. Geely will hold an AI Intelligence Strategy Conference on 3 Mar 25, which may boost its stock price. Given the stronger-than-expected market response, we upgrade Li Auto and XPeng from HOLD to BUY and raise target prices to HK$156.00 and HK$110.00 respectively. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, CATL and Desay SV.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales picked up wow while the wait-and-see sentiment continues. Upgrade Li Auto and XPeng from HOLD to BUY and raise target price to HK$156.00 and HK$110.00 respectively. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao and Desay. Results BeiGene (6160 HK/BUY/HK$161.60/Target: HK$220.00) 2024: Results beat; targets operating profit...
China auto sales rebounded in the seventh week of 2025, but remained low compared with the previous month due to consumers’ wait-and-see sentiment amid a price war and the transitional period of product upgrade. Zeekr’s acquisition of Lynk & Co strengthens Geely’s premium EV strategy. GWM has unveiled a strategy for affordable smart driving solutions. DeepSeek is gaining traction among automakers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, CATL and Desay SV.
Insurance registrations for major EV makers in China remained low due to continued disruptions from the Chinese New Year holiday. BYD announced plans to equip all its EVs with DiPilot ADAS, making smart driving technology available even in budget models. Geely remains a strong competitor to BYD with its AI strategy about to be launched. Upgrade BYD from HOLD to BUY and raise target price to Rmb410.00. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, CATL and Desay SV.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales stay low, BYD to equip all EVs with DiPilot ADAS. Upgrade BYD to BUY. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao and Desay. Update AAC Technologies (2018 HK/HOLD/HK$46.55/ Target: HK$48.00) 2024 profit alert – earnings set to beat expectations. Maintain HOLD. The United Laboratories International (3933 HK/HOLD/HK$12.42/Target: H...
Chinese OEMs, such as Geely and XPeng, generally posted better-than-expected January sales, despite the Chinese New Year holiday from 28 Jan 25 to 4 Feb 25. Based on stronger 2025/26 sales, we raise target prices for Geely and XPeng from HK$23.00/HK$43.00 to HK$27.00/HK$60.00 respectively. The US is threatening Mexico with stiff tariffs, which would hit auto part makers with high exposure to the US, eg Nexteer. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, CATL and Desay SV.
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