reports
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Greater China Research Team
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China 2H25 Market Strategy: A Big Beautiful Deal?
Trade deal in focus. Notwithstanding the 90-day truce on tariff escalation, it is still a 50/50 if there will be a “Big Beautiful Deal” between the US and China. The US is steadfast in wanting to cap China’s growth and restricting her access to the latest technology, while China is making a firm stand on its economic rights. We expect that higher US tariffs on Chinese goods are unavoidable, likely closer to the 60% mark, if Trump were to be seen making a credible move to onshore production in ...
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
601138 FOXCONN INDUSTRIAL INTERNET CO. LTD. CLASS A
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
02161 JBM (HEALTHCARE) LTD
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
1698 HK TENCENT MUSIC ENTERTAINMENT GROUP
3750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY (3750 HK)
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
China Metals & Mining: Copper -- Trade uncertainties cloud 2H25; decar...
Copper prices rebounded on renewed US-China trade optimism, while demand remains under pressure from macro headwinds. Looser supply conditions have weighed on the Yangshan premium and spurred export activity. The near-term outlook remains neutral, with trade negotiations a key swing factor. A more constructive view emerges for 1H26, underpinned by green energy momentum and a global policy-driven recovery. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Zijin Mining (2899 HK): 1Q25: In line; poised to capitalise on gold pr...
Zijin reported 1Q25 earnings of Rmb10,166.8m (+62.4% yoy), in line with expectations. Mining entities’ gross margin expanded to 59.9% (+5.4ppt yoy), supported by a gold price rally. The contribution from gold/copper to gross profit became more balanced at 36%/42%, enhancing earnings resilience amid elevated market uncertainties. 1Q25 gold output rose to a record 19.1 tonnes (+13.4% yoy), on track to achieve its 2025 growth target of 17%. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$24.00.
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Damon Shen
- Gigi Cheuk
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Kate Luang
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, April 15, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Trade Mar 25 exports growth rebounded to 12.4% yoy, a big improvement from Feb 25’s -3.0% yoy (which was affected by the holidays), but still a moderation from 4Q24's stronger performance. On the other hand, imports fell 4.3% yoy, dragged by a strong decline in coal imports. Trade surplus widened to US$102.6b, but will narrow in the months ahead if the higher US tariffs remain. Strategy China And Hong Kong Property In Apr 25: a) major mainland cities saw mom decrea...
- Chong Lee Len
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Damon Shen
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Gigi Cheuk
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jieqi Liu
- Jo Yee Ng
- Kate Luang
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Tuesday, April 15, 2025
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade: A divergence between exports and imports. Strategy China And Hong Kong Property: Sales recovery weakened in Apr 25; watch for further policy support and the implications of Hong Kong’s free trade status. Results Zijin Mining (2899 HK/BUY/HK$17.22/Target: HK$24.00): 1Q25: In line; poised to capitalise on gold price surge with robust production growth. Update Kingboard Laminates Holdings (1888 HK/BUY/HK$7.69/Target: HK$9.58): Cautiously optimistic on 1H25; developing...
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Zijin Mining (2899 HK): 2024: In line; mining entities’ gross margin g...
Zijin reported 2024 earnings of Rmb32,050.6m (+51.8% yoy), within expectations. Mining entities’ gross margin expanded to 58.0% in 2024 (+8.9ppt yoy) on a metal price rally and effective cost control. Both Zijin’s copper C1 and gold AISC were among the 20% lowest globally. Copper/gold output grew to 1.07m/72.9 tonnes (+6.1%/+7.7% yoy). Kamoa’s copper output will hit 580,000 tonnes with the completion of phase 3 expansion six months ahead of schedule. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$23.00.
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Gigi Cheuk
- Greater China Research Team
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kate Luang
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Ming San Soong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Sunny Chen
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, March 25, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Internet Seeing great opportunities in AI development, major China cloud hyperscalers are significantly lifting their AI investment in 2025. With the launch of Manus, we are more optimistic about the accelerating monetisation capabilities of AI agents and applications through API integration and tool utilisation, which benefit cloud hyperscalers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Results CMOC (3993 HK/BUY/HK$6.72/Target: HK$8.70) CMOC reported 2024 earnings of Rmb13,532.0m (+64.0...
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Gigi Cheuk
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kate Luang
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Lester Siew
- Ming San Soong
- Paula Ruth
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Sunny Chen
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, March 25, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet Monetisation potential and trends of AI agent from the launch of Manus AI. Results CMOC (3993 HK/BUY/HK$6.72/Target: HK$8.70) 2024: Above expectations; copper output up 55% yoy to 650,161 tonnes. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK/BUY/HK$12.58/Target: HK$11.62) 2024: Results in line; more volatile business environment in 2025 but limited valuation ...
2488 ALLIANCE BANK MALAYSIA BHD.
1295 PUBLIC BANK BHD
3993 CHINA MOLYBDENUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
X2S SINOPHARM GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
ERAA ERAJAYA SWASEMBADA
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
D01 DAIRY FARM INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
RHBBANK RHB BANK BHD
HLFG HONG LEONG FINANCIAL GROUP
IOI IOI CORP BHD
AMM AMMB HOLDINGS BHD
HLBK HONG LEONG BANK BERHAD
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
ABANK AFFIN BANK BHD
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
1888 KINGBOARD LAMINATES HOLDINGS LTD
09888 BAIDU INC
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
BIMB BANK ISLAM MALAYSIA BHD
EPIC 1CM INC
Z29 029 GROUP SE
MAYBANK MALAYAN BANKING BHD
HUIZ HUIZE HOLDING LIMITED
- Greater China Research Team
Greater China Strategy: Alpha Picks -- March Conviction Calls
The HSI and MSCI China index rose 13.4% mom and 11.5% mom respectively in February, riding the wave of optimism on China’s tech sector. Sino-US tensions look set to rise in March, as higher tariffs take effect and should lead to greater market volatility. Hence, we will be quick to take profit and will only add names with less demanding valuations. New additions to our BUY list are Geely, JD, SHKP and Zijin Mining.
A0M4P7 HAN'S LASER TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
China Metals and Mining: Hawkish Fed spurs North America ETF outflows;...
The robust US jobs market reinforced expectations for a less aggressive rate-cut path, but gold prices remained resilient and supported by US policy uncertainties. A hawkish Fed has led to a net outflow of North American gold ETF, but we believe inflation concerns will eventually boost retail demand. LME/SHFE copper prices hit a one-month high on optimism on demand from China and indications of robust Chinese copper demand in recent weeks. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Jo Yee Ng
- Jonathan Koh
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Lester Siew
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Tham Mun Hon
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, January 15, 2025
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply Positive signs despite weak credit demand. Sector Baijiu Industry remains under pressure; conservative tone toward 2025; channel healthiness and price stability the key focuses. Downgrade the baijiu sector to UNDERWEIGHT. Metals and Mining ...
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
TRUE TRUE CORP. PUBLIC CO. LTD.
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
BTPS BANK TABUNGAN PENSIUNAN NASIONAL SYARIAH
IOI IOI CORP BHD
KLK KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
SPSB SP SETIA BHD
GENP GENTING PLANTATIONS BHD
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
HAPL HAP SENG PLANTATIONS HOLDINGS BHD
UHU UNITED HAMPSHIRE US REIT
KMLY KIMLY LTD
SCGP SCG PACKAGING PCL
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
BCOW 1895 BANCORP OF WISCONSIN INC
BBYB BANK NEO COMMERCE
Z29 029 GROUP SE
SDG SD GUTHRIE BHD
1787 SHANDONG GOLD MINING CO LTD
- Greater China Research Team
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China Market Strategy: 2025 Year Ahead - De-risking And De-cou...
Expect increased market volatility in 1H25 as the US embarks on another round of trade rebalancing with China via higher tariffs. We expect China to roll out growth supportive policies on top of the de-risking measures that have been announced. Hence, we prefer a domestic orientation and policy beneficiaries for 1H25. Our MSCI China Index target is at 68pt, based on 7% EPS growth and 10.5x PE. The downside target is 51pt in the event of a full-fledged trade war. China is focusing on de-riskin...
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
A0M4P7 HAN'S LASER TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
00241 ALIBABA HEALTH INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY LTD.
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
02618 JD LOGISTICS INC
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Zijin Mining (2899 HK): 3Q24: In line; mining entities’ gross margin d...
Zijin reported 9M24 earnings of Rmb24,357.5m (+50.7% yoy), representing 80% of our full-year estimate and within expectations. Mining entities’ gross margin fell to 58.5% in 3Q24 (-1.2ppt qoq) on lower copper ASP. 9M24 copper/gold output grew to 789,459/54.3 tonnes (+8.3%/+4.7% yoy). The electricity shortage is constraining Kamoa’s copper output, which could result in a 2-4% shortfall to Zijin’s 2024 copper output target. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$21.90.
- Colin Lee
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, October 22, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Ping An Insurance Group (2318 HK/BUY/HK$49.05/Target: HK$69.00) Ping An delivered robust 3Q24 results with OPAT rising 22% yoy, driven by a strong performance in the life and P&C segments. The asset management business turned red due to impairment but reversal is possible if China’s economy improves further. NBV grew 1.1x in 3Q24, mainly supported by strong life premium growth and margin expansion. Although share price rose 30% mom, the strong earnings turnaround could...
- Colin Lee
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kong Ho Meng
- Paula Ruth
- Philip Wong
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, October 22, 2024
GREATER CHINA Results Ping An Insurance Group (2318 HK/BUY/HK$49.05/Target: HK$69.00) 3Q24: Bountiful harvest after prolonged dry spell. ZTE Corporation (763 HK/HOLD/HK$21.05/Target: HK$19.00) 3Q24: Results miss, expect stringent cost controls before next capex cycle. Downgrade to HOLD. Zijin Mining (2899 HK/BUY/HK$17.40/Target: HK$21.90) 3Q24: In line; mining entities’ gross margin down 1.2ppt qoq on lower copper ASP. Update Jiumaojiu In...
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ERAA ERAJAYA SWASEMBADA
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
WPRTS WESTPORTS HOLDINGS BHD
0763 ZTE CORPORATION CLASS H
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
CVL CIVMEC
09922 JIUMAOJIU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD.
SCB SCB X PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
0303 ALPHA IVF GROUP
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Malaysia Research Team
- Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
- Paula Ruth
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, October 07, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Metals And Mining Gold: Rally takes a breather; downside cushioned by escalating geopolitical tensions. INDONESIA Update Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ/HOLD/Rp850/Target: Rp930) 2Q24: Revenue from non-tower business jumps 30% yoy. Downgrade to HOLD. MALAYSIA Strategy Budget 2025 Preview: Building Sustainable Growth While Budget 2025 is seen as market-neutral, it is suppor...
1295 PUBLIC BANK BHD
TOWR PT SARANA MENARA NUSANTARA TBK
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
PTTEP PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PLC
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
INRI INARI AMERTRON BHD
GAM GAMUDA BHD
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
RGB RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
CSSC CHINA SUNSINE CHEMICAL HOLDINGS LTD
TSVT 2SEVENTY BIO INC
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
IOIPG IOI PROPERTIES GROUP BHD
LAGENDA LAGENDA PROPERTIES BHD
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
1787 SHANDONG GOLD SMELTING CO LTD
- Ringo Tang Chi Yu
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Zijin Mining (2899 HK): 1H24: In line; mining entities’ gross margin e...
Zijin reported 1H24 earnings of Rmb15,084.4m (+46.6% yoy), representing 53% of our full-year estimate and in line with expectations. Mining entities’ gross margin rose to 57.3% (+5.6ppt), thanks to an uptick in copper/gold prices and cost savings in 1H24. Copper/gold output grew to 518,570 tonnes/35 tonnes (+5.3%/+9.5% yoy), slightly behind the full-year target given interruptions of mine operations. Lithium production will likely be postponed on weak prices. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$21.50...
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Kate Luang
- Ringo Tang Chi Yu
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, August 27, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Cross Currents In our base case, we expect the MSCI China index to range trade for the rest of 2024 due to uncertainties over the duration of economic adjustment. Upside risk comes from the start of the Fed’s easing cycle as it opens the way for further monetary easing in China. However, this should be complemented by demand-side policies for greater impact. In the meantime, we utilise a barbell strategy, preferring TMT, tech hardware and defensives like financials, c...
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Chong Lee Len
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kate Luang
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Krit Tanarattananon
- Ming San Soong
- Ringo Tang Chi Yu
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Stevanus Juanda
- Sunny Chen
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, August 27, 2024
GREATER CHINA Strategy Cross Currents We expect the MSCI China index to range trade for the rest of 2024; we prefer TMT, tech hardware and defensives like banks, communication services and utilities. Results Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK/BUY/HK$4.46/Target: HK$5.30) 1H24: In line; shifting focus to offshore WTG and overseas markets. Jiumaojiu International Holdings (9922 HK/BUY/HK$2.49/Target: HK$3.50) 1H24: Result...
U11 UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD. (SINGAPORE)
MYOR MAYORA INDAH
LPPF PT MATAHARI DEPARTMENT STORE TBK CLASS A
UNVR PT UNILEVER INDONESIA TBK
MAPI MITRA ADIPERKASA
X2S SINOPHARM GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
ROTI NIPPON INDOSARI CORPINDO
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
T TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
CPALL TB CP ALL
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
TDC TIME DOTCOM BHD
02208 XINJIANG GOLDWIND SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS H
1888 KINGBOARD LAMINATES HOLDINGS LTD
09922 JIUMAOJIU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD.
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
TIMECOM 029 GROUP SE
Z29 ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
China Metals & Mining: Gold -- Stars aligning for further price upside...
The gold price has been hovering around US$2,300-2,400/t oz in recent months while in search of a catalyst and scrambling for clarity on the rate cut timeline. We believe the PBOC’s de-dollarisation drive is far from over given their relatively low ratio of gold reserves. The value of gold will emerge as China announces more supportive monetary policies. Short-term volatility will persist as the market continues to finetune its rate cut expectations, but stars are aligning for further price upsi...
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