EME Equity Market – April 2025 EME indices mostly in the red in April, Hungarian BUX and Greek ASE the exceptions. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 2.0% mom in EUR terms, but was up 2.9% mom in USD terms in April. The Hungarian BUX was the best performer, followed by the Greek ASE index (+3.5% and 0.8% mom in EUR terms, respectively). There was a slight decline in the Polish WIG20, and more pronounced deteriorations in the Romanian BET and Czech PX indices (-0.6%, -2.0% and -4.2% mom in EUR ...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: very solid 1Q25, supporting our 2025E 20%+ ROE, trading at 1.3x BV and a 9%+ yield very attractive • Komercni Banka: beat on 1Q25 bottom line driven by LLPs releases, pre-provision profit falls short of expectations NEUTRAL • Erste Bank: 1Q25 results in line; 2025E ROTE guidance sustained, but market focus on potential big M&A effort • mBank: 1Q25 solid, but valuation reflects recovery already; 2025E revenue guidance a little disappointing • Santander Bank Polska: solid ...
HEADLINES: • Theon International: 1Q25 trading update – strong execution, rich options POSITIVE • Kruk: 1Q25 results, beat driven by Wonga, debt purchased segment in line, but slowing growth dynamics NEUTRAL • Siauliu Bankas: rather weak 1Q25, but maintained outlook should provide some support NEGATIVE • Medicover: 1Q25 beat on admin costs and other financial income POSITIVE • Otokar: 1Q25 results – continuing losses on the operating and bottom lines • Tofas: weak set of results in 1Q25, as anti...
HEADLINES: • DO & CO: the art of the meal (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Diagnostyka: strong 4Q24, in line with the prelims NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: 1Q25 a little below 1Q25E expectations, but valuation (1Q25 P/BV at 1.2x) still very low NEUTRAL • MONETA Money Bank: 1Q25 results almost in line with expectations, ROE of 18% fully priced in by 1Q25 P/BV of 2.2x NEUTRAL • Metlen Energy & Metals: 1Q25 sales +31% yoy, to EUR 1.5bn, in line NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: strategy update, expands pipeline to...
We cut our Dec-25 TP to 32.1 RON per share, but remain Buy rated on the stock, implying 20% upside potential including our estimated DPS of 2.1 RON. This reflects the bank’s strong capital returns. Last year TLV was active in M&A in the Romanian and Moldovan markets as they acquired OTP Bank Romania and BCR Chișinău. More importantly, around 95% of OTP customers are already with BT as of the announcement of the 2024 results. As a result, the management expects significant loan and deposit growth...
The recent announcement of the application of trade tariffs by the Trump administration led to a sharp correction in oil prices amidst fears of an economic slowdown as a result of a full-blown trade war. We are adopting a more cautious scenario, with oil prices now expected to reach $ 67/b for 2025, $ 65/b for 2026 and $ 67/b in the longer term. Our 2025-2030 capex scenario has been lowered by 5% and our EPS expectations by 13% on average over 2025-2027, whilst our target prices have been lowere...
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