reports
- Johnny Yum
Strategy - Alpha Picks: Slight Outperformance In A Bear Market
The JCI declined 3.3% in Apr 24 and our portfolio managed to outperform slightly, delivering a -3.2% return. The biggest gainers were SIDO (+15.2%), EXCL (+6.8%) and ACES (+3.7%). The largest losers were BBTN (-17.6%), MAPI (-16%) and CTRA (-9.8%). We think the JCI is likely to deliver another negative return in May 24. We removed EXCL, MAPI and CTRA, and add TLKM and BSDE. Our picks are BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, JSMR and AKRA.
- Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
- Johnny Yum
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Friday, May 3, 2024
Strategy: Alpha Picks: Slight Outperformance In A Bear Market: Our picks are BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, JSMR and AKRA. Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ/SELL/Rp6,425/Target: Rp5,715): 1Q24: Within expectations. Maintain SELL as we are concerned with its flat FFB production growth, lower mill utilisation rate and weak downstream margin. Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ/BUY/Rp6,325/Target: Rp7,300): 1Q24: Net profit up 1.1% yoy, slightly below expectations. Maintain BUY with a lower target price. Trime...
AALI ASTRA AGRO LESTARI
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
PTI TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA TBK PT (ADR)
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kong Ho Meng
- Paula Ruth
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, April 25
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: EV sales rebound for two weeks in a row, but price war intensifies. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng. Top BUYs: CATL and Yadea. Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$102.30/Target: HK$120.00) 1Q24: Solid results, more positive updates to advanced packaging business. EVE Energy (300014 HK/SELL/ Rmb34.27/Target: Rmb20.00) ...
- Paula Ruth
Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ) - Positive Seasonality Coupled With Potenti...
The Eid al-Fitr celebration drove Telkomsel’s data traffic up by 13% vs normal days. Telkomsel’s convergence penetration reached 45% progress in Mar 24 (Jul 23: 37%). Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of Rp4,400 considering its strong balance sheet, historically cheap valuation (-2SD of EV/EBITDA, amid external geographical tension), and dividend enticement (potential yield of around 5%).
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Paula Ruth
Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ) - 1Q24: Net Profit Up 20% qoq, Partly Thank...
TLKM recorded net profit of Rp6.1t (-6% yoy/+20% qoq) in 1Q24, in line with our and consensus expectations. 1Q24 core profit jumped 2% yoy (+15% qoq) with better EBITDA margin (52% vs 4Q23: 49%). Maintain BUY with a target price of Rp4,400 due to several factors: a) positive seasonality in 2Q24 (Eid al-Fitr), b) share price correcting by around 21% month-to-date amid recent external geographical tension and trades at near -2SD of EV/EBITDA, and c) potential dividend yield of around 5% (AGM: 3 Ma...
- Hendri Effendi
- Johnny Yum
- Paula Ruth
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Strategy: Potential Impact Of The Middle East Conflict: Our top picks: Banking – BBNI, BBTN; property − BSDE, CTRA; technology – BUKA; consumer − MYOR, CMRY; retail – ACES; infrastructure – JSMR; mining – NCKL. Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ/BUY/Rp3,170/Target: Rp4,400): 1Q24: Net profit up 20% qoq, partly thanks to margin expansion. Maintain BUY. TRADERS’ CORNER Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ): Technical BUY Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ): Technical BUY
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
PTI TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA TBK PT (ADR)
BUKA BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
TAPG TRIPUTRA AGRO PERSADA PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Kong Ho Meng
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Paula Ruth
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Notes - Tuesday, April 23, 2024
GREATER CHINA Update Jiumaojiu International Holdings (9922 HK/BUY/HK$4.57/Target: HK$5.30): SSS declines in 1Q24; strategic readjustment to fit value-for-money experience. Li Ning (2331 HK/HOLD/HK$17.50/Target: HK$19.20): 1Q24 sell-through growth in line; expect sell-through growth to pick up starting from 2H24. INDONESIA Strategy Potential Impact Of The Middle East Conflict: Our top picks: Banking – BBNI, BBTN; property − BSDE, CTRA; technology – BUKA; consumer − MYOR, CMRY; retail – ACES; in...
5218 SAPURA ENERGY BHD
SPALI SUPALAI PCL
C52 COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LIMITED
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
PTTGC PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
PTI TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA TBK PT (ADR)
SMELT MALAYSIA SMELTING CORP BHD
09922 JIUMAOJIU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD.
- Paula Ruth
Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ) - 4Q23: Net Profit Surges 21% yoy But EBITD...
TLKM’s 4Q23 net profit surged 21% yoy (-25% qoq) to Rp5t, but EBITDA decreased 5% yoy (-11% qoq) to Rp18.5t due to higher interconnection exchange expenses. Despite the weaker EBITDA, 2023 EBITDA was in line with our and consensus expectations. We expect EBITDA to recover to 6% yoy in 2024, partly on the back of the gradual realisation of synergy between Telkomsel and Indihome. Upgrade to BUY with an unchanged target price of Rp4,400.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Ceilica Su Rui
- Chong Lee Len
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jo Yee Ng
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kong Ho Meng
- Paula Ruth
- Philip Wong
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Tuesday, March 26, 2024
GREATER CHINA Results ENN Energy Holdings (2688 HK/HOLD/HK$61.45/Target: HK$69.21): 2023: In line; challenging path ahead. Downgrade to HOLD. Jiumaojiu International Holdings (9922 HK/BUY/HK$5.60/Target: HK$8.20): 2023: Results in line; store opening and SSSG to decelerate in 2024. Q Technology Group (1478 HK/HOLD/ HK$3.03/Target: HK$3.30): 2023: Earnings miss due to non core items, but the worst is over. Sinopharm Group (1099 HK/BUY/HK$20.40/Target: HK$25.00): 2023: Results in line; expecting s...
XGH ENN ENERGY HOLDINGS LIMITED
5218 SAPURA ENERGY BHD
X2S SINOPHARM GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
01478 Q TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
PTI TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA TBK PT (ADR)
SSG SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD
GMB GAS MALAYSIA BHD
MNHB MYNEWS HOLDINGS BHD
09922 JIUMAOJIU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD.
- Paula Ruth
PT Telkom (TLKM IJ) - Moderate EBITDA Growth Of 5% yoy In 2024
Fixed broadband’s penetration is expected to hit 23% in 2027 vs 14% in 2021, according to ADL. However, demand from the remaining potential market might depend on fixed broadband products’ affordability. Furthermore, Telkomsel’s data pricing increase might gradually become more limited in the near term. Our EBITDA growth assumption is 5% yoy, thanks to the realisation of more synergies from the Telkomsel-Indihome integration (since 3Q23). Downgrade to HOLD and lower our target price to Rp4,400.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Friday, February 2, 2024
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ/BUY/Rp5,750/Target: Rp6,400): 4Q23: 10.5% qoq profit growth amid higher CoF and pressure on micro segment. PT Telkom (TLKM IJ/HOLD/Rp4,040.00/Target: Rp4,400.00): Moderate EBITDA growth of 5% yoy in 2024. Downgrade to HOLD. TRADERS’ CORNER Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ): Technical BUY Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ): Technical BUY
- Chris Hoare
ASEAN Telcos Outlook 2024; Continued market repair in Indonesia, Thai...
After a decent 2023, in 2024 we are likely to see further evidence of market repair in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia driven by consolidation in both Mobile and Broadband. The economic outlook in the region is generally positive too, helped by post-Covid tailwinds, and China decoupling.
- Johnny Yum
Strategy - Alpha Picks: Underperformance In 4Q23 And 2023
Our portfolio underperformed in 4Q23, delivering a 1.3% return compared with the JCI’s return of 3.4%. For 2023, the JCI rose by 6.2%, driven by Barito Group stocks that delivered triple-digit returns and lifted the overall market. The strong market return caused our portfolio to underperform with a 2.7% return. We drop NCKL and GOTO as these names have not been performing, and add MAPI. Our picks are MAPI, BMRI, JSMR, TLKM, BBNI, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA.
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Johnny Yum
Strategy - Alpha Picks: Underperformance With A 3.7% Return
Our portfolio delivered a 3.7% return in Nov 23, underperforming the JCI that recorded a 7.2% return. Our top three gainers are BBNI (+12.5%), TLKM (10.1%), SMGR (8.9%) and NCKL (6.5%). Over the past 10 years, the JCI’s highest monthly return is usually in December, averaging 2.59%. In anticipation of the year-end rally, we increase our portfolio beta by adding GOTO and BMRI as investors could purchase banks amid the market rally. Our picks are GOTO, BMRI, JSMR, TLKM, BBNI, NCKL, CTRA, MYOR and ...
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
MYOR MAYORA INDAH
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
PTI TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA TBK PT (ADR)
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
- Johnny Yum
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Maskun Ramli
Indonesia Daily - Monday, December 4, 2023
Strategy: Alpha Picks: Underperformance With A 3.7% Return: Our picks are GOTO, BMRI, JSMR, TLKM, BBNI, NCKL, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. Trimegah Bangun Persada (NCKL IJ/BUY/Rp1,055/Target: Rp1,300): 3Q23: NPAT up 24.9% qoq on higher sales volume; results within expectations. TRADERS’ CORNER Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ): Technical BUY Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ): Technical BUY
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
MYOR MAYORA INDAH
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
PTI TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA TBK PT (ADR)
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – ISAT Would Be The Beneficiary From Home’s Fixed B...
ISAT on 27 November announced its collaboration with MNC Play by acquiring over 300,000 subscribers. This could give rise to slightly positive sentiment on ISAT as it gives more clarity on its potential inorganic growth in the fixed broadband/fixed mobile convergence business. EXCL has yet to announce the recent progress of its synergy with LINK (top 2 player in fixed broadband market). The impact might be roughly priced in for now as ISAT’s share price jumped 4% on 29 Nov 23. Maintain OVERWEIGH...
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
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