reports
- Paula Ruth
Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ) - EBITDA Growth Could Improve To 3% yoy In ...
We maintain BUY with a target price of Rp4,200 for TLKM due to several factors: a) 2024 mobile and fixed broadband accounted for 82% of Telkomsel’s revenue; b) digital touch points’ (MyTelkomsel super app) users reached 46m subscribers (29% of Telkomsel’s subscribers); c) EBITDA growth of 3% yoy in 2025, slightly better than flat yoy in 2024; and d) potential divided yield of 5-6%, assuming 70-80% dividend payout.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – 2Q24: 11% yoy Growth In Core Profit
The combined EBITDA of TLKM, ISAT and EXCL grew 5% yoy in 2Q24. ARPU of ISAT and EXCL rose 5% yoy and 6% yoy respectively, while the ARPU of TLKM’s subsidiary for the cellular business (Telkomsel) declined 10% yoy. During 2Q24, ISAT gained a little market share (based on EBITDA) among the top three telcos, partly because it managed to expand its EBITDA margin slightly (2Q24: 49% vs 1Q24: 47%). Maintain OVERWEIGHT with EXCL as our top pick.
- Hendri Effendi
- Paula Ruth
- Paula Ruth
Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ) - 2Q24: 6% yoy Growth In Core Profit; To Im...
For 1H24, TLKM booked core NPAT (excluding Rp1.2t early retirement/ERP expenses) of Rp13.0t (+4% yoy) and NPAT of Rp11.8t (-8% yoy). 1H24 consolidated NPAT was in line with our full-year estimate, but slightly below consensus’. Regarding the ERP, management mentioned that: a) it does not plan to conduct another ERP in the near future, and b) IRR of the ERP is around 21%. Indihome Residential’s 2Q24 subscriber numbers grew 3% qoq (similar to 4Q23 and 1Q24). Maintain BUY. Target price: Rp4,200.
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Ken Lee
- Krit Tanarattananon
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
- Paula Ruth
- Philip Wong
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, July 18, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PEV sales down 4% yoy but up 8% wow during 8-14 July, in line. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL and Tuopu. Top SELL: XPeng. INDONESIA Update Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ/BUY/Rp3,250/Target: Rp4,200) 2024 fixed broadband revenue to see moderate growth of 8% yoy; maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Results Alpha IVF (ALPHA MK/BUY/RM0.32/Target: RM0.40) ...
ARAY ACCURAY
AOSL ALPHA & OMEGA SEMICONDUCTOR
III 3I GROUP PLC
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
INTUCH INTOUCH HOLDINGS PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
THCOM THAICOM
Z74 SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
002340 GEM CO. LTD. CLASS A
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
PTI TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA TBK PT (ADR)
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
GULF GULF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
BCOW 1895 BANCORP OF WISCONSIN INC
PREIT PAVILION REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
Z29 029 GROUP SE
02015 LI AUTO INC
09868 XPENG INC
600699 NINGBO JOYSON ELECTRONIC CORP
- Paula Ruth
Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ) - 2024 Fixed Broadband Revenue To See Moder...
We maintain BUY on TLKM with a lower target price of Rp4,200 given the following factors: a) TLKM is a beneficiary of higher demand during the Eid al-Fitr festive season (2Q24), b) its strong balance sheet (1Q24 net debt/EBITDA: 0.4x), and c) its insignificant exposure to USD debt (0.3% of 1Q24 total debt). We lower our target price partly due to the potential impact from the new fixed broadband product (EZnet) , which has been launched with more affordable prices (thus lowering margin) to reach...
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Johnny Yum
Strategy - Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Jun 24 And 2Q24
Our portfolio outperformed in Jun 24, delivering a 2.5% return on average compared with the JCI’s 0.6% return. In 2Q24, our portfolio delivered a 1.2% return on a market cap weighted basis, compared with the 3.1% decline of the JCI. We decided to add BMRI and BBRI to our portfolio as the financial sector could benefit from the global rate reduction trend and market rebound. The recent decline could present good opportunities to establish positions. Our picks are BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, TLKM, ACE...
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
PTI TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA TBK PT (ADR)
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
PTI TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA TBK PT (ADR)
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – Positive Seasonality To Support 2Q24 Results; Mai...
Telkomsel utilised its CVM programme to raise its data pricing in Apr-May 24. This includes a seasonal price hike (around 3-5%) during Eid al-Fitr in 2024, when demand for data services was higher vs normal days. EXCL recently launched a new data package BP with localised offerings (37-50% of total quota). We still expect a slight positive seasonal impact from Eid al-Fitr on telcos’ 2Q24 performance. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector with XL Axiata as our top pick.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Johnny Yum
Strategy - Alpha Picks: First Month Of Underperformance In 2024
Our portfolio underperformed for the first time in 2024, delivering a 5.7% decline in May 24 compared with the JCI’s -3.6% return. Recent winners such as ACES and JSMR suffered the largest magnitude of decline, but we view this as an opportunity to add positions as their fundamentals are still positive. We add EXCL for its synergies with FREN and drop AKRA as its land sales could be delayed until 2H24. Our picks are EXCL, BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR.
- Ceilica Su Rui
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum
- Jonathan Koh
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Singapore Research Team
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Tham Mun Hon
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, June 03, 2024
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI May 24 PMI back to contraction. Sector Macau Gaming May 24 GGR up 9% mom. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: First Month Of Underperformance In 2024 Our picks are EXCL, BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, and JSMR. SINGAPORE Strategy Alpha Picks: Strong performance. Add CENT, CVL, SIA...
544 CSE GLOBAL LTD.
V03 VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
N2IU MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL TRUST
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
Z74 SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
PTI TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA TBK PT (ADR)
G13 GENTING SINGAPORE LIMITED
SIE SIA ENGINEERING CO LTD
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
FRKN FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
Z29 029 GROUP SE
CVL CIVMEC LIMITED
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – 1Q24 EBITDA Up 9% yoy; EXCL Showed Slight Gain In...
The combined EBITDA and net profit of TLKM, ISAT, and EXCL was up by 9% yoy (4% qoq) and 4% yoy (3% qoq) respectively, despite more signs of competition in 1Q24. EXCL showed a slight gain in market share (based on 1Q24 EBITDA) among the top 3 telcos, partly thanks to EBITDA margin expansion. The upcoming Eid al-Fitr festive season could bring a slightly positive seasonality to telcos’ 2Q24 performance. Maintain OVERWEIGHT with EXCL as our top pick.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Johnny Yum
Strategy - Alpha Picks: Slight Outperformance In A Bear Market
The JCI declined 3.3% in Apr 24 and our portfolio managed to outperform slightly, delivering a -3.2% return. The biggest gainers were SIDO (+15.2%), EXCL (+6.8%) and ACES (+3.7%). The largest losers were BBTN (-17.6%), MAPI (-16%) and CTRA (-9.8%). We think the JCI is likely to deliver another negative return in May 24. We removed EXCL, MAPI and CTRA, and add TLKM and BSDE. Our picks are BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, JSMR and AKRA.
- Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
- Johnny Yum
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Friday, May 3, 2024
Strategy: Alpha Picks: Slight Outperformance In A Bear Market: Our picks are BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, JSMR and AKRA. Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ/SELL/Rp6,425/Target: Rp5,715): 1Q24: Within expectations. Maintain SELL as we are concerned with its flat FFB production growth, lower mill utilisation rate and weak downstream margin. Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ/BUY/Rp6,325/Target: Rp7,300): 1Q24: Net profit up 1.1% yoy, slightly below expectations. Maintain BUY with a lower target price. Trime...
AALI ASTRA AGRO LESTARI
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
PTI TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA TBK PT (ADR)
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kong Ho Meng
- Paula Ruth
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, April 25
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: EV sales rebound for two weeks in a row, but price war intensifies. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng. Top BUYs: CATL and Yadea. Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$102.30/Target: HK$120.00) 1Q24: Solid results, more positive updates to advanced packaging business. EVE Energy (300014 HK/SELL/ Rmb34.27/Target: Rmb20.00) ...
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