Two Directors at Merck Kgaa bought 7,768 shares at 159.245EUR. The significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...
We are initiating coverage of Lonza with a target price of CHF 535 and an Outperform rating. As one of the world's leading contract development and manufacturing organisations (CDMO), Lonza is predestined to benefit from the sustainable drivers of this industry. The group's global presence and strong market positions in the growth areas of biologics and cell and gene therapy (CGT) will fuel double-digit sales growth and >30% EBITDA margins in the medium term. Despite significant growt...
We are initiating coverage of Lonza with a target price of CHF 535 and an Outperform rating. As one of the world's leading contract development and manufacturing organisations (CDMO), Lonza is predestined to benefit from the sustainable drivers of this industry. The group's global presence and strong market positions in the growth areas of biologics and cell and gene therapy (CGT) will fuel double-digit sales growth and >30% EBITDA margins in the medium term. Despite significant growt...
>Q4 review – Slight beat in Q4 - Q4 2023 revenues of € 5,225m (-7.7% y-o-y) were 0%/+2% vs ODDO BHF/consensus. The organic decline was -2.9%, (ODDO BHF -3.8%). EBITDA pre of € 1,293m (-19.8% y-o-y, margin 24.7%) was 5%/1% better than ODDO BH/consensus. Core EPS was € 1.85 some 0%/3% ahead of expectations on a lower tax rate. For 2024, the company expects slight to modest organic growth with a forex headwind of 0% to -3% (ODDO BHF 4.9% organic growth, consensus 1.8% in...
Sodexo boasts a defensive profile and significant potential for operational improvement, with progress increasingly visible since Sophie Bellon’s arrival as CEO. These factors are set to endure, narrowing the gap with Compass, and its transformation into a catering pure player following Pluxee’s spin-off in early 2024 should facilitate the group’s rerating. Outperform rating reiterated and a target price € 98 following Pluxee’s spin-off (combined Sodexo + Pluxee target price of € 12...
Sodexo bénéficie d’un profil défensif et d’un fort potentiel d’amélioration opérationnelle, avec des progrès de plus en plus visibles depuis l’arrivée de Sophie Bellon comme CEO. Ceux-ci devraient se poursuivre, réduisant l’écart avec Compass, et sa transformation en un pure player, à la suite du spin-off de Pluxee début 2024, devrait faciliter son rerating boursier. Surperformance réitérée et OC à 98 € à la suite du spin-off de Pluxee (OC combinés Sodexo + Pluxee à 129 € vs OC de 118...
>Q4 preview – Ongoing weak momentum - Q4 revenues of € 5,131m (-9.3% y-o-y) should be impacted by an organic decline of -3.8% and forex headwind of 550bp. Within the divisions, we see the strongest decline coming from Life Sciences with an organic decline of 12.1% on the back of ongoing destocking. We forecast Electronics to decline by 4.3% organically on the back of a weak semiconductor market. On the other hand, Healthcare is expected to grow with a strong 7.0% in t...
>Phase III failed - The company announced that its phase III study for evobrutinib has not meet its primary endpoint of reducing the annualised relapse rates (ARR) in multiple sclerosis (MS) compared to oral teriflunomide. While the ARR of evobrutinib showed an ongoing unchanged level in phase III compared to previous phases, teriflunomide showed better efficacy than in other phase III studies. Consequently, we believe that the design of the phase III study had some p...
>Q3 review – in line with low expectations - Q3 2023 revenues of € 5,173m (-10.9% y-o-y) were in line with ODDO BHF/consensus. Organic decline was -4.1%, (ODDO BHF -6.2%). The forex headwind was 340bp. EBITDA pre of € 1,446m (-20.1% y-o-y, margin 28.0%) was 12% better than ODDO BHF and 4% ahead of consensus estimates. Core EPS of € 2.07 was 21%/7% vs expectations on a better financial result. The company reiterates its 2023 guidance on sales of € 20.5-21.9bn (ODDO BHF...
Sans direction depuis avril, les marchés européens sont récemment entrés dans une phase de bear market qui pourrait atteindre 5% supplémentaires d’ici fin 2023. Nous restons surpondérés sur les actions américaines vs européennes en raison de la résilience de l’économie US. En Europe, nous continuons de préférer les valeurs défensives peu endettées et leur adjoignons désormais celles du style Qualité. Nous ajustons notre allocation sectorielle tout en maintenant sa philosophie d’ensemb...
Without direction since April, European markets have recently entered a bear market phase that could extend by a further 5% out to the end of 2023. We remain overweight on US equities vs European equities due to the resilience of the US economy. We maintain our preference for defensive stocks with little debt, which we round out with a Quality positioning. We adjust our sector allocation whilst adhering to its overall philosophy: Short on debt & cyclicals, Long on attractive valuation...
>Moving back to growth – Reiterated 2025 targets - Compared to last year, the key message has clearly shifted from resilience to growth. While 2023 has been transitional for Life Sciences and Electronics, Healthcare is performing very well. The mid-term growth targets were confirmed on a segmental level as well on group level with expected revenues of € 25bn in 2025, which we rate as positive. Our forecast stands at € 23.9bn, consensus at € 24.1bn. The overall feedbac...
>Light at the end of the tunnel in process solutions - Process solutions is experiencing strong headwind from destocking of biopharma companies. Merck expects to see the trough during the third quarter and some normalisation of order intake in the first half of 2024. We factor in the reduced expectations for Process solutions and are now forecasting an organic decline of 11.5% for FY 2023. While we expect Science and Lab solutions to be the resilient anchor with 1.5% ...
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