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Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim

China Merchants Bank (3968 HK): 1Q25: Earnings down 2.1% yoy on weaker...

CMB’s 1Q25 net profit dropped 2.1% yoy growth due to a 24% yoy fall in other NII amid rising bond yields and fee weakness. On a positive note, NIM was resilient with a mild 3bp qoq decline due to better funding cost management and a strong recovery in its wealth management business in 1Q25. However, the weaker-than-guided loan growth and the continued deterioration in retail loan quality are concerning, especially in light of the recent changes in the US tariff policy. Maintain BUY. Target price...

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+13)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Claire Wang Kelai
  • Colin Lee
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Ken Lee
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Sunny Chen
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Greater China Daily: Wednesday, April 30, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/HOLD/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.00) CCB delivered disappointing 1Q25 results as net profit declined 4.0%, dragged by NIM compression and tepid fee income. Furthermore, revenue growth was no longer supported by trading gains, as yields rebounded during 1Q25. Asset quality was a silver lining as CCB highlighted the sequential improvement in the retail and property developer segments. Management also noted that tariff risk is manageable in terms of...

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+18)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Benyamin Mikael
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Claire Wang Kelai
  • Colin Lee
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Lester Siew
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Regional Morning Notes - Wednesday, April 30, 2025

GREATER CHINA Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/HOLD/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.00): 1Q25: Earnings miss due to weaker NIM and fee income; tariff risk is limited. Downgrade to HOLD. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/HOLD/HK$6.10/Target: HK$6.60): 1Q25: In line; cautious outlook amid rising curtailment rates and upcoming policy shift. China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$44.50/Target: HK$49.00): 1Q25: Earnings down 2.1% yoy on weaker trading gains. Estun Automation (002747 CH/SELL/Rmb19.17/Target: Rmb...

Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim

China Banking: Playing safe amid tariff fears. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT.

Trump’s unprecedented reciprocal tariffs triggered a massive sell-off in the Hong Kong market. On 30 Mar 25, China’s four SOE banks also announced their capital-raising plans, with the dilution impact largely in line with our expectations. We believe the potential risks from Trump's tariffs are manageable for Chinese banks. Hence, investors may shift back to defensive, high dividend yield names like Chinese banks amid the sentiment hit from the tariff shocks. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT. Top pick: CCB...

Benyamin Mikael ... (+9)
  • Benyamin Mikael
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Kate Luang
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Lester Siew
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, April 10, 2025

GREATER CHINA Sector Banking Playing safe amid tariff fears. Small/Mid Cap Highlights JBM Healthcare (2161 HK/BUY/HK$1.75/Target: HK$2.42) FY26: New rounds of marketing campaigns to fuel growth. INDONESIA Results Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ/BUY/Rp1,040/Target: Rp1,900) FY24: Below our and street’s expectations MALAYSIA Sector Gloves ...

Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim

China Merchants Bank (3968 HK): 2024: Improving fundamentals but valua...

CMB posted a 1.2% yoy growth in net profit, in line with the preliminary results. NIM was above expectations due to better funding cost managements but fee income sluggishness persists. Meanwhile, asset quality was mixed as retail asset quality continued to be under pressure. Although fundamentals are improving, we decide to downgrade to HOLD as its valuation and dividend yield remain relatively unappealing at this juncture, with no major catalysts ahead. Target price: HK$49.00.

Claire Wang Kelai ... (+8)
  • Claire Wang Kelai
  • Damon Shen
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Greater China Daily: Friday, March 28, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$19.50/Target: HK$23.60) Mengniu’s 2024 core profit decreased by 8% yoy, in line with the profit warning. However, operating margin expansion beat expectations. Looking ahead, the company expects low single-digit revenue growth in 2025, with operating margin remaining stable. In the next three years, it aims to improve operating margin by 30-50bp on average annually. Dividend payout ratio was raised to 45% in 2024. Management targets bo...

Benjaphol Suthwanish ... (+13)
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Claire Wang Kelai
  • Damon Shen
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Llelleythan Tan Tan
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, March 28, 2025

GREATER CHINA Results China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$19.50/Target: HK$23.60) 2024: Results in line with profit warning; operating margin beat; targeting low single digit revenue growth for 2025. China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$45.90/Target: HK$49.00) 2024: Improving fundamentals but valuation is no longer attractive; downgrade to HOLD. China Overseas Property Holdings (2669 HK/BUY/HK$5.47/Target: HK$6.80) ...

Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim

China Merchants Bank (3968 HK): 4Q24 preliminary results: Every cloud ...

CMB reported upbeat 2024 preliminary results with improving operating performance. NII reversed its yoy declining trend, thanks to better asset growth and stabilising NIM. Non-NII surged 17% yoy, supported by trading gains and improved fee income. Both revenue and net profit grew 7.6% yoy in 4Q24. We see potential upside on shareholder returns and expect the recovery momentum to carry into 2025. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$49.00.

Colin Lee ... (+4)
  • Colin Lee
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim

Greater China Daily: Thursday, January 16, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$41.20/Target: HK$49.00) CMB reported upbeat 2024 preliminary results with improving operating performance. NII reversed its yoy declining trend, thanks to better asset growth and stabilising NIM. Non-NII surged 17% yoy, supported by trading gains and improved fee income. Both revenue and net profit grew 7.6% yoy in 4Q24. We see potential upside on shareholder returns and expect the recovery momentum to carry into 2025. Maintain BUY. Ta...

Colin Lee ... (+8)
  • Colin Lee
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Jack Lai Yuan Khai
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Paula Ruth
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, January 16, 2025

GREATER CHINA Update China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$41.20/Target: HK$49.00) 4Q24 preliminary results: Every cloud has a silver lining. Lenovo Group (992 HK/BUY/HK$9.18/Target: HK$12.00) Management expects IDG business’ growth to accelerate in 2025-26. Maintain BUY. INDONESIA Update Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ/BUY/Rp384/Target: Rp480) New cooperation with XPENG and HONOR; maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Update Gamuda (GAM MK/BUY/RM...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Banking: Improved 4Q24 outlook amid policy supports.

China banks reported improved earnings growth, driven by narrower revenue declines, strong trading gains and lower credit costs. We expect the sequential NIM decline to worsen in 4Q24 due to policy rate cuts. However, we believe China banks will maintain positive earnings growth for 2024, supported by the low base effect in 4Q23 and the stimulus package announced in late-Sep 24. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: CMB.

Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim

China Merchants Bank (3968 HK): 3Q24: Inflection point is in sight.

CMB’s net profit growth turned positive in 3Q24 at +0.8% yoy, driven by resilient trading income and stringent cost control. Management has turned more optimistic on the company’s earnings outlook after observing multiple positive operating trends following the stimulus package in late-Sep 24. Given a turnaround in profit growth and an ample capital buffer, CMB will consider investor feedback to increase dividend payout or even conduct a share repurchase in future. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK...

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+19)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Johnny Yum
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Ken Lee
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Paula Ruth
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Stevanus Juanda
  • Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
  • Wei Xiang Ku

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, November 04, 2024

GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls Add Hansoh Pharma, Sands China, CSCEC and BYDE to our BUY list. Add Sinopharm to our SELL list. Sector Aviation – China Airlines: 3Q24 earnings a slight miss; expect losses in seasonally weak 4Q24. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Macau Gaming Oct 24 GGR up 7% yoy and...

TWOU 2U INC.
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
7113 TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
X2S SINOPHARM GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
5162 VSTECS
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
AD2 AIR CHINA LIMITED CLASS H
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
1055 CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
0670 CHINA EASTERN AIRLINES CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS H
AXIATA AXIATA GROUP BERHAD
MAXIS MAXIS BHD
YNS YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
RHBBANK RHB BANK BHD
T TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD
GAM GAMUDA BHD
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
ECW ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
RGB RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
TDC TIME DOTCOM BHD
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
CDB CELCOMDIGI BHD
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
02015 LI AUTO INC
LAGENDA LAGENDA PROPERTIES BHD
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
Bella Lu Yifei ... (+7)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Ken Lee
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Greater China Daily: Monday, November 4, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China dropped 3.9% and 5.9% mom respectively in October, as investors took profit pending further details on the expected fiscal package. We expect the fiscal stimulus to have been largely priced in and will take profit on most outperformers. Our focus will be on stocks with specific catalysts in the near term. We are adding Hansoh Pharma, Sands China, CSCEC and BYDE to our BUY list. We add Sinopharm to our SELL li...

Kenny Yong Hui Lim ... (+2)
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Tham Mun Hon

China Strategy: Providing greater countercyclical support.

On 12 Oct 24, the MOF updated its countercyclical supportive policies and structural reforms to achieve high quality growth. The key positives are initiatives to resolve local government debt and substantially increase the debt limit. Finer details of the policies are lacking due to pending approval by the Standing Committee of the NPC. Overall, these are positive but we downgrade the banking sector to MARKET WEIGHT due to the potential EPS and ROE dilution on SOE banks from the capital injectio...

Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim

China Banking: 1H24 results wrap-up: Walking a tightrope.

China banks reported a smaller earnings decline in 2Q24 on lower impairment charges and strong trading income. We estimate that the 80bp mortgage repricing could hit banks’ earnings by 6.5bp and 9.2% in 2025. The fundamental weakness due to macro headwinds and mortgage repricing news could weigh on share prices. Nonetheless, the depressed valuations and resurging dividend yields after the recent correction could be a silver lining again for defensive plays. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top pick: CMB.

Greater China Research Team ... (+8)
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Johnny Yum
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Krit Tanarattananon
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Singapore Research Team
  • Thailand Research Team
  • Vincent Khoo Boo Aik

Regional Strategy: Alpha Picks - September 2022

GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We expect an improving operating performance among selected companies in September, and add AIA, COLI, Desay SV, Galaxy Entertainment, Meituan, Ping An and TUL to our BUY list and add Li Auto as a SELL. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Trailing The JCI’s Strong Performance In Aug 24: Our picks are ICBP, TOWR, BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Adapting To A Bipolar Market: Our Al...

MAJOR MAJOR CINEPLEX GROUP PCL
TFG THAIFOODS GROUP
02313 SHENZHOU INTERNATIONAL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
300014 EVE ENERGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
KKP KIATNAKIN BANK
OU8 CENTURION
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
CPF CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ES ESSO SOCIETE ANONYME FRANCAISE
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
00388 HONG KONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING LTD.
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
STEC SINO-THAI ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION PCL
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
V03 VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ESSO ESSO (THAILAND)
TTKOM TURK TELEKOMUNIKASYON A.S.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
EA ENERGY ABSOLUTE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
TU THAI UNION GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
COM7 COM7
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
600585 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ORI1 ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL) LIMITED
MINT MINOR INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
Z74 SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
MAPI MITRA ADIPERKASA
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
300124 SHENZHEN INOVANCE TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD CLASS A
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
PTTGC PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ROTI NIPPON INDOSARI CORPINDO
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
01997 WHARF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT CO. LTD.
SE SEA ADS
G13 GENTING SINGAPORE LIMITED
INRI INARI AMERTRON BHD
PTTEP-R PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PCL NVDR
SIE SIA ENGINEERING CO LTD
GAM GAMUDA BHD
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
BAL BUMITAMA AGRI LTD
SCGB SUNWAY CONSTRUCTION GROUP BH
KPJ KPJ HEALTHCARE BERHAD
SMM SEMBCORP MARINE LTD
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
BURSA BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
MSGB MAH SING GROUP BHD
PMAH PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDIN
IOI IOI CORP BHD
CPALL TB CP ALL
BAUTO BERMAZ AUTO BHD
GENM GENTING MALAYSIA BHD
MAHB MALAYSIA AIRPORTS HLDGS BHD
06098 COUNTRY GARDEN SERVICES HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
2013 WEIMOB INC
EKO EKOVEST BHD
RGB RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
SCB-R SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK PCL NVDR
709 GIORDANO INTERNATIONAL LTD
1093 CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP LTD
FRKN FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
MRDIY MR DIY GROUP M BHD
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
2696 SHANGHAI HENLIUS BIOTECH INC
HMN ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST
TIDLOR NGERN TID LOR PCL
OR PTT OIL AND RETAIL BUSINESS PUBLIC CO LIMITED
1209 CHINA RESOURCES MIXC LIFESTYLE SERVICES
BUKA BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
09888 BAIDU INC
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
ADOOY PT ADARO ENERGY TBK
SMGR SEMEN INDONESIA PERSERO TBK
NATGATE NATIONGATE HOLDINGS BHD
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
SUNWAY SUNWAY BHD
HUME ESSO THAILAND PCL
02015 HUME CEMENT INDUSTRIES BHD
09961 LI AUTO INC
BTG CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
LAGENDA BETAGRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
KEX LAGENDA PROPERTIES BHD
CVL KERRY EXPRESS THAILAND PCL
CIVMEC LIMITED
Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim

China Merchants Bank (3968 HK): 1H24: Still waiting to thrive.

CMB’s 2Q24 results were largely within our expectations with a 0.7% earnings decline. The laggard performance was mainly due to larger NIM compression and prolonged fee income weakness, but partly offset by strong trading income and lower impairment charges. Asset quality was mixed as improvement was seen in corporate loans but deterioration in asset quality indicators for the retail segment could raise concerns. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$42.00.

Carol Dou Xiao Qin ... (+8)
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Ringo Tang Chi Yu
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Sunny Chen
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Greater China Daily: Tuesday, September 3, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$5.43/Target: HK$6.00) CCB’s 2Q24 earnings (-1.4% yoy) were slightly below our expectation. PPOP decreased 4.7% yoy due to larger NIM dilution and fee income decline, partly offset by strong trading income. Despite that, management guided that the deposit rate cut in July could fully offset the impact of LPR cuts, and NIM downward pressure will continue to ease in 2H24. Asset quality remains decent with flattish NPL ratio but press...

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