CMB’s 1Q25 net profit dropped 2.1% yoy growth due to a 24% yoy fall in other NII amid rising bond yields and fee weakness. On a positive note, NIM was resilient with a mild 3bp qoq decline due to better funding cost management and a strong recovery in its wealth management business in 1Q25. However, the weaker-than-guided loan growth and the continued deterioration in retail loan quality are concerning, especially in light of the recent changes in the US tariff policy. Maintain BUY. Target price...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/HOLD/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.00) CCB delivered disappointing 1Q25 results as net profit declined 4.0%, dragged by NIM compression and tepid fee income. Furthermore, revenue growth was no longer supported by trading gains, as yields rebounded during 1Q25. Asset quality was a silver lining as CCB highlighted the sequential improvement in the retail and property developer segments. Management also noted that tariff risk is manageable in terms of...
GREATER CHINA Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/HOLD/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.00): 1Q25: Earnings miss due to weaker NIM and fee income; tariff risk is limited. Downgrade to HOLD. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/HOLD/HK$6.10/Target: HK$6.60): 1Q25: In line; cautious outlook amid rising curtailment rates and upcoming policy shift. China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$44.50/Target: HK$49.00): 1Q25: Earnings down 2.1% yoy on weaker trading gains. Estun Automation (002747 CH/SELL/Rmb19.17/Target: Rmb...
Trump’s unprecedented reciprocal tariffs triggered a massive sell-off in the Hong Kong market. On 30 Mar 25, China’s four SOE banks also announced their capital-raising plans, with the dilution impact largely in line with our expectations. We believe the potential risks from Trump's tariffs are manageable for Chinese banks. Hence, investors may shift back to defensive, high dividend yield names like Chinese banks amid the sentiment hit from the tariff shocks. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT. Top pick: CCB...
GREATER CHINA Sector Banking Playing safe amid tariff fears. Small/Mid Cap Highlights JBM Healthcare (2161 HK/BUY/HK$1.75/Target: HK$2.42) FY26: New rounds of marketing campaigns to fuel growth. INDONESIA Results Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ/BUY/Rp1,040/Target: Rp1,900) FY24: Below our and street’s expectations MALAYSIA Sector Gloves ...
CMB posted a 1.2% yoy growth in net profit, in line with the preliminary results. NIM was above expectations due to better funding cost managements but fee income sluggishness persists. Meanwhile, asset quality was mixed as retail asset quality continued to be under pressure. Although fundamentals are improving, we decide to downgrade to HOLD as its valuation and dividend yield remain relatively unappealing at this juncture, with no major catalysts ahead. Target price: HK$49.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$19.50/Target: HK$23.60) Mengniu’s 2024 core profit decreased by 8% yoy, in line with the profit warning. However, operating margin expansion beat expectations. Looking ahead, the company expects low single-digit revenue growth in 2025, with operating margin remaining stable. In the next three years, it aims to improve operating margin by 30-50bp on average annually. Dividend payout ratio was raised to 45% in 2024. Management targets bo...
GREATER CHINA Results China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$19.50/Target: HK$23.60) 2024: Results in line with profit warning; operating margin beat; targeting low single digit revenue growth for 2025. China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$45.90/Target: HK$49.00) 2024: Improving fundamentals but valuation is no longer attractive; downgrade to HOLD. China Overseas Property Holdings (2669 HK/BUY/HK$5.47/Target: HK$6.80) ...
CMB reported upbeat 2024 preliminary results with improving operating performance. NII reversed its yoy declining trend, thanks to better asset growth and stabilising NIM. Non-NII surged 17% yoy, supported by trading gains and improved fee income. Both revenue and net profit grew 7.6% yoy in 4Q24. We see potential upside on shareholder returns and expect the recovery momentum to carry into 2025. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$49.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$41.20/Target: HK$49.00) CMB reported upbeat 2024 preliminary results with improving operating performance. NII reversed its yoy declining trend, thanks to better asset growth and stabilising NIM. Non-NII surged 17% yoy, supported by trading gains and improved fee income. Both revenue and net profit grew 7.6% yoy in 4Q24. We see potential upside on shareholder returns and expect the recovery momentum to carry into 2025. Maintain BUY. Ta...
GREATER CHINA Update China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$41.20/Target: HK$49.00) 4Q24 preliminary results: Every cloud has a silver lining. Lenovo Group (992 HK/BUY/HK$9.18/Target: HK$12.00) Management expects IDG business’ growth to accelerate in 2025-26. Maintain BUY. INDONESIA Update Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ/BUY/Rp384/Target: Rp480) New cooperation with XPENG and HONOR; maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Update Gamuda (GAM MK/BUY/RM...
China banks reported improved earnings growth, driven by narrower revenue declines, strong trading gains and lower credit costs. We expect the sequential NIM decline to worsen in 4Q24 due to policy rate cuts. However, we believe China banks will maintain positive earnings growth for 2024, supported by the low base effect in 4Q23 and the stimulus package announced in late-Sep 24. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: CMB.
CMB’s net profit growth turned positive in 3Q24 at +0.8% yoy, driven by resilient trading income and stringent cost control. Management has turned more optimistic on the company’s earnings outlook after observing multiple positive operating trends following the stimulus package in late-Sep 24. Given a turnaround in profit growth and an ample capital buffer, CMB will consider investor feedback to increase dividend payout or even conduct a share repurchase in future. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls Add Hansoh Pharma, Sands China, CSCEC and BYDE to our BUY list. Add Sinopharm to our SELL list. Sector Aviation – China Airlines: 3Q24 earnings a slight miss; expect losses in seasonally weak 4Q24. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Macau Gaming Oct 24 GGR up 7% yoy and...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China dropped 3.9% and 5.9% mom respectively in October, as investors took profit pending further details on the expected fiscal package. We expect the fiscal stimulus to have been largely priced in and will take profit on most outperformers. Our focus will be on stocks with specific catalysts in the near term. We are adding Hansoh Pharma, Sands China, CSCEC and BYDE to our BUY list. We add Sinopharm to our SELL li...
On 12 Oct 24, the MOF updated its countercyclical supportive policies and structural reforms to achieve high quality growth. The key positives are initiatives to resolve local government debt and substantially increase the debt limit. Finer details of the policies are lacking due to pending approval by the Standing Committee of the NPC. Overall, these are positive but we downgrade the banking sector to MARKET WEIGHT due to the potential EPS and ROE dilution on SOE banks from the capital injectio...
China banks reported a smaller earnings decline in 2Q24 on lower impairment charges and strong trading income. We estimate that the 80bp mortgage repricing could hit banks’ earnings by 6.5bp and 9.2% in 2025. The fundamental weakness due to macro headwinds and mortgage repricing news could weigh on share prices. Nonetheless, the depressed valuations and resurging dividend yields after the recent correction could be a silver lining again for defensive plays. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top pick: CMB.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We expect an improving operating performance among selected companies in September, and add AIA, COLI, Desay SV, Galaxy Entertainment, Meituan, Ping An and TUL to our BUY list and add Li Auto as a SELL. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Trailing The JCI’s Strong Performance In Aug 24: Our picks are ICBP, TOWR, BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Adapting To A Bipolar Market: Our Al...
CMB’s 2Q24 results were largely within our expectations with a 0.7% earnings decline. The laggard performance was mainly due to larger NIM compression and prolonged fee income weakness, but partly offset by strong trading income and lower impairment charges. Asset quality was mixed as improvement was seen in corporate loans but deterioration in asset quality indicators for the retail segment could raise concerns. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$42.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$5.43/Target: HK$6.00) CCB’s 2Q24 earnings (-1.4% yoy) were slightly below our expectation. PPOP decreased 4.7% yoy due to larger NIM dilution and fee income decline, partly offset by strong trading income. Despite that, management guided that the deposit rate cut in July could fully offset the impact of LPR cuts, and NIM downward pressure will continue to ease in 2H24. Asset quality remains decent with flattish NPL ratio but press...
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