reports
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
China Merchants Bank (3968 HK): 3Q25: Silver Lining Has Yet To Come.
CMB reported muted results with net profit growing 1.0% yoy due to lower credit cost. PPOP remained soft (-2.5% yoy), dragged by other non-NII and opex growth, partially offset by solid NII growth and strong fee income turnaround. NIM compression narrowed to 3bp on a larger decline in deposit cost. However, we see downside risk to valuation, as CMB’s premium valuation is less justified given its modest earnings growth and lower dividend yield. Maintain HOLD. Target price: HK$51.00.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Damon Shen
- Ejann Hiew
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Monday, November 3, 2025
Top Stories Company Update | AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/HK$75.45/Target: HK$95.00) AIA’s VONB grew strongly by 27% yoy in 3Q25, significantly above consensus expectation of 17% yoy, due to the sustained strong momentum in Hong Kong (+40% yoy) and a notable recovery in mainland China, where VONB rose 27% yoy despite assumption changes. ANP sales growth accelerated to 15% and VONB margin also improved 6.0ppt, due to a favourable shift in product mix in China. Maintain BUY with a higher target price o...
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
600019 BAOSHAN IRON & STEEL CO. LTD. CLASS A
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
002050 CH ZHEJIANG SANHUA INTELLIGENT CONTROLS CO LTD (002050 CH)
2050 HK ZHEJIANG SANHUA INTELLIGENT CONTROLS CO LTD (2050 HK)
002747 CH ESTUN AUTOMATION
- Audrey Celia
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Colin Lee
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Ejann Hiew
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Johnny Yum
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Kai Jie Tang
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Wei Xiang Ku
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, November 03, 2025
Greater China Sector Update | Macau Gaming Macau’s Oct 25 GGR was MOP$24.1b, increasing 32% mom and 16% yoy, and recovering to 91% of 2019’s level (vs a recovery of 83% in Sep 25). Oct 25’s GGR number beat market consensus by 4%, and set another post-COVID-19 record. For 10M25, GGR climbed to MOP$205.4b, up 8% yoy, and recovered to 83% of 2019’s level. Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick. Company Results | China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$48.64/Target: HK$51.00) CMB rep...
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
1023 CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD
KTB KRUNG THAI BANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
2488 ALLIANCE BANK MALAYSIA BHD.
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
QH QUALITY HOUSES
1295 PUBLIC BANK BHD
ENRG ENERGI MEGA PERSADA
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
N2IU MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL TRUST
JPFA JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
BUOU FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
SPALI SUPALAI PCL
1155 MALAYAN BANKING BHD.
C61U CAPITALAND COMMERCIAL TRUST
ADRO PT ADARO ENERGY TBK
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
AP AP THAILAND
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
CDREIT CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS
RHBBANK RHB BANK BHD
SUN SUNTECH SA
KREIT KEPPEL REIT
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
HLFG HONG LEONG FINANCIAL GROUP
PREIT PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
LPN LPN DEVELOPMENT PCL
SSG SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD
AMM AMMB HOLDINGS BHD
HLBK HONG LEONG BANK BERHAD
ABANK AFFIN BANK BHD
PSH PRUKSA HOLDING PCL
UHU UNITED HAMPSHIRE US REIT
CRPU SASSEUR REIT (S CHIP)
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
OXMU PRIME US REIT
HMN ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST
CLCT CAPITALAND CHINA TRUST
KORE KEPPEL PACIFIC OAK US REIT
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
MXNU ELITE COMMERCIAL REIT MGNT PTE LTD
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
ITC I-TAIL CORPORATION PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
BIMB BANK ISLAM MALAYSIA BHD
DCRU DIGITAL CORE REIT MANAGEMENT PTE. LTD.
MAYBANK MALAYAN BANKING BHD
VST VSTECS BHD
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
002050 CH ZHEJIANG SANHUA INTELLIGENT CONTROLS CO LTD (002050 CH)
AADI IJ ADARO ANDALAN INDONESIA
002747 CH ESTUN AUTOMATION
EREIT ESR REIT
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
China Banking: Examining The Surge In Banks’ Financial Investments
We take a closer look at the rapidly-growing financial investments, which now account for 21% of total banking assets. The shift in asset mix has been driven by the increasing supply of government bonds and sluggish loan demand, while bond trading income has become more prominent amid the bullish bond market. However, we expect interest rates to become more volatile going forward, posing downside risks to banks if a sharp rate reversal occurs. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: CCB.
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
China Merchants Bank (3968 HK): 2Q25: In-line earnings but PPOP misses...
CMB’s 2Q25 earnings are within our expectations due to lower credit cost but PPOP was a miss due to muted fee income and larger NIM compression. Asset quality remained largely stable with a modest NPL improvement, but retail risks stay elevated. Meanwhile, management struck a cautious tone on both NIM and retail asset quality. In view of CMB’s limited fundamental catalysts and a less attractive dividend yield, we downgrade CMB to HOLD. Target price: HK$51.00.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Ejann Hiew
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Ming San Soong
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, September 2, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Internet China’s internet companies reported intact 2Q25 top-line with mixed earnings results. The key focuses are on the latest quick commerce war and AI cloud and agent development. In 2Q25, we saw meaningful AI monetisation visibility contributing to incremental top-line growth, and expect this momentum to continue into 2H25. On the profitability front, margins will remain under pressure from heightened investments to fend off the intensifying competition in on-demand ...
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Chong Lee Len
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Ejann Hiew
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Ming San Soong
- Philip Wong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, September 2, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet: Strong top-line growth and margins further hurt in 2H25 on heavy investments. Macau Gaming: Aug 25 GGR sets another post-pandemic high. Results China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$47.04/Target: HK$51.00): 2Q25: In-line earnings but PPOP misses expectations on muted fee and larger NIM compression. Downgrade to HOLD. Estun Automation (002747 CH/HOLD/Rmb23.63/Target: Rmb24.00): 2Q25: In line with profit guidance. Demand and profitability to improve in 2H25. Upgrade ...
1023 CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD
601012 LONGI GREEN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
T TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD
2747 ESTUN AUTOMATION
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
TWC TIONG WOON CORPORATION HOLDING
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
China Merchants Bank (3968 HK): 1Q25: Earnings down 2.1% yoy on weaker...
CMB’s 1Q25 net profit dropped 2.1% yoy growth due to a 24% yoy fall in other NII amid rising bond yields and fee weakness. On a positive note, NIM was resilient with a mild 3bp qoq decline due to better funding cost management and a strong recovery in its wealth management business in 1Q25. However, the weaker-than-guided loan growth and the continued deterioration in retail loan quality are concerning, especially in light of the recent changes in the US tariff policy. Maintain BUY. Target price...
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Ejann Hiew
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Wednesday, April 30, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/HOLD/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.00) CCB delivered disappointing 1Q25 results as net profit declined 4.0%, dragged by NIM compression and tepid fee income. Furthermore, revenue growth was no longer supported by trading gains, as yields rebounded during 1Q25. Asset quality was a silver lining as CCB highlighted the sequential improvement in the retail and property developer segments. Management also noted that tariff risk is manageable in terms of...
600132 CHONGQING BREWERY CO.LTD CLASS A
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
6WX CHINA LONGYUAN POWER GROUP CORP. LTD. CLASS H
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
300124 SHENZHEN INOVANCE TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD CLASS A
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
300760 SHENZHEN MINDRAY BIO-MEDICAL ELECTRONICS CO. LTD. CLASS A
2747 ESTUN AUTOMATION
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
600699 WUXI APPTEC CO. LTD. CLASS H
NINGBO JOYSON ELECTRONIC CORP
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Benyamin Mikael
- Chong Lee Len
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Ejann Hiew
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kong Ho Meng
- Lester Siew
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Wednesday, April 30, 2025
GREATER CHINA Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/HOLD/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.00): 1Q25: Earnings miss due to weaker NIM and fee income; tariff risk is limited. Downgrade to HOLD. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/HOLD/HK$6.10/Target: HK$6.60): 1Q25: In line; cautious outlook amid rising curtailment rates and upcoming policy shift. China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$44.50/Target: HK$49.00): 1Q25: Earnings down 2.1% yoy on weaker trading gains. Estun Automation (002747 CH/SELL/Rmb19.17/Target: Rmb...
BCP THE BANGCHAK PETROLEUM PCL
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
BRPT PT BARITO PACIFIC TBK
F34 WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
ESSO ESSO (THAILAND)
6WX CHINA LONGYUAN POWER GROUP CORP. LTD. CLASS H
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
601939 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK CORPORATION CLASS A
300124 SHENZHEN INOVANCE TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD CLASS A
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
5243 VELESTO ENERGY
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
333 MIDEA GROUP
2747 ESTUN AUTOMATION
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
SCGP SCG PACKAGING PCL
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
China Banking: Playing safe amid tariff fears. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT.
Trump’s unprecedented reciprocal tariffs triggered a massive sell-off in the Hong Kong market. On 30 Mar 25, China’s four SOE banks also announced their capital-raising plans, with the dilution impact largely in line with our expectations. We believe the potential risks from Trump's tariffs are manageable for Chinese banks. Hence, investors may shift back to defensive, high dividend yield names like Chinese banks amid the sentiment hit from the tariff shocks. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT. Top pick: CCB...
- Benyamin Mikael
- Gigi Cheuk
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Kate Luang
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Lester Siew
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, April 10, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Banking Playing safe amid tariff fears. Small/Mid Cap Highlights JBM Healthcare (2161 HK/BUY/HK$1.75/Target: HK$2.42) FY26: New rounds of marketing campaigns to fuel growth. INDONESIA Results Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ/BUY/Rp1,040/Target: Rp1,900) FY24: Below our and street’s expectations MALAYSIA Sector Gloves ...
KTC KRUNGTHAI CARD PCL
0939 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK CORPORATION CLASS H
5168 HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BHD.
7113 TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.
7153 KOSSAN RUBBER INDUSTRIES BHD.
002161 INVENGO INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (A)
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
SAWAD SRISAWAD CORPORATION PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
MTC MUANGTHAI CAPITAL PCL
KLK KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
PROP PROPNEX LTD
CSSC CHINA SUNSINE CHEMICAL HOLDINGS LTD
TIDLOR NGERN TID LOR PCL
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
OTEK OILTEK INTERNATIONAL (OTEK SP)
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
China Merchants Bank (3968 HK): 2024: Improving fundamentals but valua...
CMB posted a 1.2% yoy growth in net profit, in line with the preliminary results. NIM was above expectations due to better funding cost managements but fee income sluggishness persists. Meanwhile, asset quality was mixed as retail asset quality continued to be under pressure. Although fundamentals are improving, we decide to downgrade to HOLD as its valuation and dividend yield remain relatively unappealing at this juncture, with no major catalysts ahead. Target price: HK$49.00.
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Damon Shen
- Ejann Hiew
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Friday, March 28, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$19.50/Target: HK$23.60) Mengniu’s 2024 core profit decreased by 8% yoy, in line with the profit warning. However, operating margin expansion beat expectations. Looking ahead, the company expects low single-digit revenue growth in 2025, with operating margin remaining stable. In the next three years, it aims to improve operating margin by 30-50bp on average annually. Dividend payout ratio was raised to 45% in 2024. Management targets bo...
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Damon Shen
- Ejann Hiew
- Jieqi Liu
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Kong Ho Meng
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, March 28, 2025
GREATER CHINA Results China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$19.50/Target: HK$23.60) 2024: Results in line with profit warning; operating margin beat; targeting low single digit revenue growth for 2025. China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$45.90/Target: HK$49.00) 2024: Improving fundamentals but valuation is no longer attractive; downgrade to HOLD. China Overseas Property Holdings (2669 HK/BUY/HK$5.47/Target: HK$6.80) ...
XGH ENN ENERGY HOLDINGS LIMITED
CC3 STARHUB LTD
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
5218 SAPURA ENERGY BHD
Z74 SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
02669 CHINA OVERSEAS PROPERTY HOLDINGS LIMITED
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
NETLINK NETLINK NBN TRUST
MTC MUANGTHAI CAPITAL PCL
CPALL TB CP ALL
06098 COUNTRY GARDEN SERVICES HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
SCB SCB X PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
STECON STECON GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
DUSIT TB DUSIT THANI (DUSIT TB)
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
China Merchants Bank (3968 HK): 4Q24 preliminary results: Every cloud ...
CMB reported upbeat 2024 preliminary results with improving operating performance. NII reversed its yoy declining trend, thanks to better asset growth and stabilising NIM. Non-NII surged 17% yoy, supported by trading gains and improved fee income. Both revenue and net profit grew 7.6% yoy in 4Q24. We see potential upside on shareholder returns and expect the recovery momentum to carry into 2025. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$49.00.
- Colin Lee
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
Greater China Daily: Thursday, January 16, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$41.20/Target: HK$49.00) CMB reported upbeat 2024 preliminary results with improving operating performance. NII reversed its yoy declining trend, thanks to better asset growth and stabilising NIM. Non-NII surged 17% yoy, supported by trading gains and improved fee income. Both revenue and net profit grew 7.6% yoy in 4Q24. We see potential upside on shareholder returns and expect the recovery momentum to carry into 2025. Maintain BUY. Ta...
- Colin Lee
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Paula Ruth
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, January 16, 2025
GREATER CHINA Update China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$41.20/Target: HK$49.00) 4Q24 preliminary results: Every cloud has a silver lining. Lenovo Group (992 HK/BUY/HK$9.18/Target: HK$12.00) Management expects IDG business’ growth to accelerate in 2025-26. Maintain BUY. INDONESIA Update Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ/BUY/Rp384/Target: Rp480) New cooperation with XPENG and HONOR; maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Update Gamuda (GAM MK/BUY/RM...
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China Banking: Improved 4Q24 outlook amid policy supports.
China banks reported improved earnings growth, driven by narrower revenue declines, strong trading gains and lower credit costs. We expect the sequential NIM decline to worsen in 4Q24 due to policy rate cuts. However, we believe China banks will maintain positive earnings growth for 2024, supported by the low base effect in 4Q23 and the stimulus package announced in late-Sep 24. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: CMB.
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
China Merchants Bank (3968 HK): 3Q24: Inflection point is in sight.
CMB’s net profit growth turned positive in 3Q24 at +0.8% yoy, driven by resilient trading income and stringent cost control. Management has turned more optimistic on the company’s earnings outlook after observing multiple positive operating trends following the stimulus package in late-Sep 24. Given a turnaround in profit growth and an ample capital buffer, CMB will consider investor feedback to increase dividend payout or even conduct a share repurchase in future. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK...
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