reports
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
China Merchants Bank (3968 HK): 2Q25: In-line earnings but PPOP misses...
CMB’s 2Q25 earnings are within our expectations due to lower credit cost but PPOP was a miss due to muted fee income and larger NIM compression. Asset quality remained largely stable with a modest NPL improvement, but retail risks stay elevated. Meanwhile, management struck a cautious tone on both NIM and retail asset quality. In view of CMB’s limited fundamental catalysts and a less attractive dividend yield, we downgrade CMB to HOLD. Target price: HK$51.00.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Ejann Hiew
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Ming San Soong
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, September 2, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Internet China’s internet companies reported intact 2Q25 top-line with mixed earnings results. The key focuses are on the latest quick commerce war and AI cloud and agent development. In 2Q25, we saw meaningful AI monetisation visibility contributing to incremental top-line growth, and expect this momentum to continue into 2H25. On the profitability front, margins will remain under pressure from heightened investments to fend off the intensifying competition in on-demand ...
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Chong Lee Len
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Ejann Hiew
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Ming San Soong
- Philip Wong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, September 2, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet: Strong top-line growth and margins further hurt in 2H25 on heavy investments. Macau Gaming: Aug 25 GGR sets another post-pandemic high. Results China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$47.04/Target: HK$51.00): 2Q25: In-line earnings but PPOP misses expectations on muted fee and larger NIM compression. Downgrade to HOLD. Estun Automation (002747 CH/HOLD/Rmb23.63/Target: Rmb24.00): 2Q25: In line with profit guidance. Demand and profitability to improve in 2H25. Upgrade ...
1023 CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD
601012 LONGI GREEN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
T TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD
2747 ESTUN AUTOMATION
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
TWC TIONG WOON CORPORATION HOLDING
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
China Merchants Bank (3968 HK): 1Q25: Earnings down 2.1% yoy on weaker...
CMB’s 1Q25 net profit dropped 2.1% yoy growth due to a 24% yoy fall in other NII amid rising bond yields and fee weakness. On a positive note, NIM was resilient with a mild 3bp qoq decline due to better funding cost management and a strong recovery in its wealth management business in 1Q25. However, the weaker-than-guided loan growth and the continued deterioration in retail loan quality are concerning, especially in light of the recent changes in the US tariff policy. Maintain BUY. Target price...
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Ejann Hiew
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Wednesday, April 30, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/HOLD/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.00) CCB delivered disappointing 1Q25 results as net profit declined 4.0%, dragged by NIM compression and tepid fee income. Furthermore, revenue growth was no longer supported by trading gains, as yields rebounded during 1Q25. Asset quality was a silver lining as CCB highlighted the sequential improvement in the retail and property developer segments. Management also noted that tariff risk is manageable in terms of...
600132 CHONGQING BREWERY CO.LTD CLASS A
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
6WX CHINA LONGYUAN POWER GROUP CORP. LTD. CLASS H
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
300124 SHENZHEN INOVANCE TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD CLASS A
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
300760 SHENZHEN MINDRAY BIO-MEDICAL ELECTRONICS CO. LTD. CLASS A
2747 ESTUN AUTOMATION
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
600699 WUXI APPTEC CO. LTD. CLASS H
NINGBO JOYSON ELECTRONIC CORP
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Benyamin Mikael
- Chong Lee Len
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Ejann Hiew
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kong Ho Meng
- Lester Siew
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Wednesday, April 30, 2025
GREATER CHINA Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/HOLD/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.00): 1Q25: Earnings miss due to weaker NIM and fee income; tariff risk is limited. Downgrade to HOLD. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/HOLD/HK$6.10/Target: HK$6.60): 1Q25: In line; cautious outlook amid rising curtailment rates and upcoming policy shift. China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$44.50/Target: HK$49.00): 1Q25: Earnings down 2.1% yoy on weaker trading gains. Estun Automation (002747 CH/SELL/Rmb19.17/Target: Rmb...
BCP THE BANGCHAK PETROLEUM PCL
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
BRPT PT BARITO PACIFIC TBK
F34 WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
ESSO ESSO (THAILAND)
6WX CHINA LONGYUAN POWER GROUP CORP. LTD. CLASS H
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
601939 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK CORPORATION CLASS A
300124 SHENZHEN INOVANCE TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD CLASS A
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
5243 VELESTO ENERGY
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
333 MIDEA GROUP
2747 ESTUN AUTOMATION
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
SCGP SCG PACKAGING PCL
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
China Banking: Playing safe amid tariff fears. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT.
Trump’s unprecedented reciprocal tariffs triggered a massive sell-off in the Hong Kong market. On 30 Mar 25, China’s four SOE banks also announced their capital-raising plans, with the dilution impact largely in line with our expectations. We believe the potential risks from Trump's tariffs are manageable for Chinese banks. Hence, investors may shift back to defensive, high dividend yield names like Chinese banks amid the sentiment hit from the tariff shocks. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT. Top pick: CCB...
- Benyamin Mikael
- Gigi Cheuk
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Kate Luang
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Lester Siew
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, April 10, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Banking Playing safe amid tariff fears. Small/Mid Cap Highlights JBM Healthcare (2161 HK/BUY/HK$1.75/Target: HK$2.42) FY26: New rounds of marketing campaigns to fuel growth. INDONESIA Results Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ/BUY/Rp1,040/Target: Rp1,900) FY24: Below our and street’s expectations MALAYSIA Sector Gloves ...
KTC KRUNGTHAI CARD PCL
0939 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK CORPORATION CLASS H
5168 HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BHD.
7113 TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.
7153 KOSSAN RUBBER INDUSTRIES BHD.
002161 INVENGO INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (A)
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
SAWAD SRISAWAD CORPORATION PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
MTC MUANGTHAI CAPITAL PCL
KLK KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
PROP PROPNEX LTD
CSSC CHINA SUNSINE CHEMICAL HOLDINGS LTD
TIDLOR NGERN TID LOR PCL
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
OTEK OILTEK INTERNATIONAL (OTEK SP)
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
China Merchants Bank (3968 HK): 2024: Improving fundamentals but valua...
CMB posted a 1.2% yoy growth in net profit, in line with the preliminary results. NIM was above expectations due to better funding cost managements but fee income sluggishness persists. Meanwhile, asset quality was mixed as retail asset quality continued to be under pressure. Although fundamentals are improving, we decide to downgrade to HOLD as its valuation and dividend yield remain relatively unappealing at this juncture, with no major catalysts ahead. Target price: HK$49.00.
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Damon Shen
- Ejann Hiew
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Friday, March 28, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$19.50/Target: HK$23.60) Mengniu’s 2024 core profit decreased by 8% yoy, in line with the profit warning. However, operating margin expansion beat expectations. Looking ahead, the company expects low single-digit revenue growth in 2025, with operating margin remaining stable. In the next three years, it aims to improve operating margin by 30-50bp on average annually. Dividend payout ratio was raised to 45% in 2024. Management targets bo...
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Damon Shen
- Ejann Hiew
- Jieqi Liu
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Kong Ho Meng
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, March 28, 2025
GREATER CHINA Results China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$19.50/Target: HK$23.60) 2024: Results in line with profit warning; operating margin beat; targeting low single digit revenue growth for 2025. China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$45.90/Target: HK$49.00) 2024: Improving fundamentals but valuation is no longer attractive; downgrade to HOLD. China Overseas Property Holdings (2669 HK/BUY/HK$5.47/Target: HK$6.80) ...
XGH ENN ENERGY HOLDINGS LIMITED
CC3 STARHUB LTD
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
5218 SAPURA ENERGY BHD
Z74 SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
02669 CHINA OVERSEAS PROPERTY HOLDINGS LIMITED
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
NETLINK NETLINK NBN TRUST
MTC MUANGTHAI CAPITAL PCL
CPALL TB CP ALL
06098 COUNTRY GARDEN SERVICES HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
SCB SCB X PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
STECON STECON GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
DUSIT TB DUSIT THANI (DUSIT TB)
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
China Merchants Bank (3968 HK): 4Q24 preliminary results: Every cloud ...
CMB reported upbeat 2024 preliminary results with improving operating performance. NII reversed its yoy declining trend, thanks to better asset growth and stabilising NIM. Non-NII surged 17% yoy, supported by trading gains and improved fee income. Both revenue and net profit grew 7.6% yoy in 4Q24. We see potential upside on shareholder returns and expect the recovery momentum to carry into 2025. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$49.00.
- Colin Lee
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
Greater China Daily: Thursday, January 16, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$41.20/Target: HK$49.00) CMB reported upbeat 2024 preliminary results with improving operating performance. NII reversed its yoy declining trend, thanks to better asset growth and stabilising NIM. Non-NII surged 17% yoy, supported by trading gains and improved fee income. Both revenue and net profit grew 7.6% yoy in 4Q24. We see potential upside on shareholder returns and expect the recovery momentum to carry into 2025. Maintain BUY. Ta...
- Colin Lee
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Paula Ruth
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, January 16, 2025
GREATER CHINA Update China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$41.20/Target: HK$49.00) 4Q24 preliminary results: Every cloud has a silver lining. Lenovo Group (992 HK/BUY/HK$9.18/Target: HK$12.00) Management expects IDG business’ growth to accelerate in 2025-26. Maintain BUY. INDONESIA Update Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ/BUY/Rp384/Target: Rp480) New cooperation with XPENG and HONOR; maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Update Gamuda (GAM MK/BUY/RM...
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China Banking: Improved 4Q24 outlook amid policy supports.
China banks reported improved earnings growth, driven by narrower revenue declines, strong trading gains and lower credit costs. We expect the sequential NIM decline to worsen in 4Q24 due to policy rate cuts. However, we believe China banks will maintain positive earnings growth for 2024, supported by the low base effect in 4Q23 and the stimulus package announced in late-Sep 24. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: CMB.
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
China Merchants Bank (3968 HK): 3Q24: Inflection point is in sight.
CMB’s net profit growth turned positive in 3Q24 at +0.8% yoy, driven by resilient trading income and stringent cost control. Management has turned more optimistic on the company’s earnings outlook after observing multiple positive operating trends following the stimulus package in late-Sep 24. Given a turnaround in profit growth and an ample capital buffer, CMB will consider investor feedback to increase dividend payout or even conduct a share repurchase in future. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK...
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Chong Lee Len
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Greater China Research Team
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum
- Jonathan Koh
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Malaysia Research Team
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Stevanus Juanda
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, November 04, 2024
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls Add Hansoh Pharma, Sands China, CSCEC and BYDE to our BUY list. Add Sinopharm to our SELL list. Sector Aviation – China Airlines: 3Q24 earnings a slight miss; expect losses in seasonally weak 4Q24. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Macau Gaming Oct 24 GGR up 7% yoy and...
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
7113 TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
X2S SINOPHARM GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
5162 VSTECS
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
AD2 AIR CHINA LIMITED CLASS H
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
1055 CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
0670 CHINA EASTERN AIRLINES CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS H
AXIATA AXIATA GROUP BERHAD
MAXIS MAXIS BHD
YNS YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
RHBBANK RHB BANK BHD
T TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD
GAM GAMUDA BHD
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
ECW ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
RGB RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
TDC TIME DOTCOM BHD
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
CDB CELCOMDIGI BHD
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
02015 LI AUTO INC
LAGENDA LAGENDA PROPERTIES BHD
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Greater China Research Team
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
Greater China Daily: Monday, November 4, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China dropped 3.9% and 5.9% mom respectively in October, as investors took profit pending further details on the expected fiscal package. We expect the fiscal stimulus to have been largely priced in and will take profit on most outperformers. Our focus will be on stocks with specific catalysts in the near term. We are adding Hansoh Pharma, Sands China, CSCEC and BYDE to our BUY list. We add Sinopharm to our SELL li...
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Tham Mun Hon
China Strategy: Providing greater countercyclical support.
On 12 Oct 24, the MOF updated its countercyclical supportive policies and structural reforms to achieve high quality growth. The key positives are initiatives to resolve local government debt and substantially increase the debt limit. Finer details of the policies are lacking due to pending approval by the Standing Committee of the NPC. Overall, these are positive but we downgrade the banking sector to MARKET WEIGHT due to the potential EPS and ROE dilution on SOE banks from the capital injectio...
0939 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK CORPORATION CLASS H
1398 INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL BANK OF CHINA LIMITED CLASS H
01288 AGRICULTURAL BANK OF CHINA LIMITED CLASS H
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
01658 POSTAL SAVINGS BANK OF CHINA CO. LTD. CLASS H
3988 BANK OF CHINA LTD
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
China Banking: 1H24 results wrap-up: Walking a tightrope.
China banks reported a smaller earnings decline in 2Q24 on lower impairment charges and strong trading income. We estimate that the 80bp mortgage repricing could hit banks’ earnings by 6.5bp and 9.2% in 2025. The fundamental weakness due to macro headwinds and mortgage repricing news could weigh on share prices. Nonetheless, the depressed valuations and resurging dividend yields after the recent correction could be a silver lining again for defensive plays. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top pick: CMB.
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