EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • OMV: Chemical Brothers (stays BUY) • Pegasus Airlines: 4Q23 – decent end to another stellar year NEUTRAL • Tupras: FY23 results, using inflation accounting POSITIVE • AROBS Transilvania Software: FY23 results – awaiting the calming of IT spending headwinds NEUTRAL • Sipchem: 4Q23 interim results NEGATIVE • Telecom Egypt: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Tofas: proposes distribution of a DPS of TRY 20 NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: strong player reviews of The Thaumatur...
HEADLINES: • Telecom Egypt: 4Q23 results review – EBITDA up 24% yoy, 7% below the consensus NEUTRAL • Arcelik: weak operating performance in 4Q23 results NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (26 February-3 March) • 4iG: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call • Purcari Wineries: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: February bookings estimate at USD 13m, up 5% mom POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: February total bookings estimate flat mom, but further declines in ...
HEADLINES: • Polish Auto Parts Distribution: sound recurrent growth prospects (Auto Partner downgraded to HOLD; Inter Cars stays BUY) • Kruk: 4Q23/2023 results – solid, but in line NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: books solid 2023, issues positive guidance on 2024E COR, and pays dividend one year earlier than expected POSITIVE • Romgaz: FY23 net profit 12% above profit reported with 2024E budget POSITIVE • Transelectrica: FY23 net result slightly below preliminary reported with 2024 budget NEUTRAL • KazMun...
EME Equity Market – January 2024 Market performance – Turkey off to the races in January. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in the first month of the year. There was a V-shape recovery in the Turkish ISE30, with the index adding 12.6% mom in EUR terms. The Greek ASE and Hungarian BUX indices also reported strong performances, adding 5.7% and 5.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms. The Czech PX Index advanced by 2.2% mom, while the Romanian BET 0.9% mom in EUR...
HEADLINES: • Pepco Group: 1Q24 revenues close to the consensus, guidance for 2ppts gross margin improvement yoy NEUTRAL • Telecom Egypt: acquires first 5G licence in Egypt NEUTRAL • CEZ: to place bid for GasNet, reportedly NEUTRAL • Komercni Banka: 4Q23E preview (due on 8 February) • ADNOC Drilling: 4Q23E preview (due on 13 February) NEUTRAL • Kruk: 4Q23E preview (due on 27 February, after the market closes) • Alior Bank: 4Q23E preview (due on 28 February) • Short News (TGN)
EME Equity Market – December 2023 Market performance – Poland outperforms in December. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 1.9% mom in USD in December. The WIG20 Index continues to perform well in the post-elections environment and reported the strongest performance in our core region, adding 5.9% mom in EUR terms. There was also a strong performance from the Romanian BET and Hungarian BUX indices, adding 4.4% and 4.1% mom, respectively, in EUR terms; while there was a relat...
HEADLINES: • Text: 2Q23-24 (calendar 3Q23) preliminary results - EBITDA up 10% yoy, 3% below our estimate NEGATIVE • Telecom Egypt: publishes 2024E guidance - mid double-digit top-line growth expected POSITIVE • HELLENiQ Energy: joint venture ELPEDISON testing market for LNG project • Wirtualna Polska: real users in November 2023 NEGATIVE • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Conference 2023: postcards from Prague • Magyar Telekom: postcard from Prague • Dino: postcard from Prague • Eurocash: postc...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • ADNOC Distribution: fuelled by non-fuel (stays BUY) • Allegro: 3Q23 results a notch above expectations; guidance for a strong 4Q23E in Poland POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: better-than-expected 3Q23, solid 2023-24E outlook but also higher capex guidance POSITIVE • AROBS Transilvania Software: qoq margin expansion in 3Q23 POSITIVE • Krka: 3Q results normalising, in line with our FY23E outlook NEUTRAL • DataWalk: actual 3Q23 numbers fully in line with preliminaries NEUTRAL • VIGO Photon...
HEADLINES: • Transelectrica: 3Q23 results in line with our expectations, but weak yoy performance might surprise NEGATIVE • ADNOC Drilling: 3Q23 results - better margins than expected • DIGI Communications: 3Q23 results - adjusted EBITDA up 18% yoy, in line with our estimate NEUTRAL • Telecom Egypt: 3Q23 results review - EBITDA up 7% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • ONE United Properties: 3Q23 - gross profit margin at 27%, rental income of EUR 5m for the quarter • Bank of Cyprus: 3Q2...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: 3Q23 results solid as a rock, 25%+ ROE remains, high dividend yield possible POSITIVE • BIM: strong set of results in 3Q23 financials, beating expectations POSITIVE • Richter: 3Q23 EBITDA in line; guidance raised on strong Vraylar POSITIVE • Petkim: 3Q23 results • Eurobank: 3Q23 results • National Bank: 3Q23 results • Addiko Bank: 3Q23 results - bottom-line beat POSITIVE • Transgaz: no approval from EC for EUR 500m grants for non-priority projects NEUTRAL • Auto Par...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • Elm: digital enabler (HOLD - initiation of coverage) • Turk Telekom: 2Q23 results POSITIVE • Pegasus Airlines: 2Q23 - high RASK and costs under control drive stellar profitability POSITIVE • Telecom Egypt: 2Q23 results review - EBITDA up 30% yoy, 7% above the consensus NEUTRAL • Telecom Egypt: key takeaways from the 2Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • DIGI Communications: key takeaways from the 2Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • CEZ: IndMin says "no reason for quick action" on CEZ split NEUTRAL...
Today (14 August), Telecom Egypt (ETEL) reported solid 2Q23 results, with its revenues growing 29% yoy, to EGP 14.18bn (in line with our estimate and 7% above the consensus), its EBITDA up 30% yoy, to EGP 5.82bn (4% below our estimates, 7% above the consensus), and net profit of EGP 2.88bn (up 19% yoy, in line with our estimate, but 10% above the consensus). We see the results as slightly positive, due to the beat on all the major lines vs. the consensus.
HEADLINES: • Yapi Kredi: 2Q23 highlights - lacklustre on most core lines • Kaspi.kz: 2Q23 highlights before the call - guidance upgrade and classified acquisition • TeraPlast: weak sales performance in 2Q23, company expects recovery in 2H23E NEGATIVE • PKO BP: PFSA not allowing dividend payment from the 2022 net profit NEUTRAL • Ford Otosan: production suspension due to annual holiday NEUTRAL • Verbund: 2Q23E results preview (due on 27 July) • Telecom Egypt: 2Q23E results preview (due in mid-...
ETEL IS SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED COMPARED TO EMERGING PEERS ETEL’s business model misperception pressured cashflows on capex and infrastructure spending, and an unfavorable revenue mix have always acted as a barrier for ETEL's stock to reach its full potential. Those challenges have already passed, and we believe that there is no fundamental reason for the stock to remain cheap, except for foreign investor presence in Egypt (a market-wide reason and not a company-specific one). We used an eq...
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
WHOLESALE AND IRUS USD-DENOMINATED REVENUES DRIVE GROWTH ETEL reported 1Q23 revenues of EGP13.9 billion, compared to EGP9.4 billion in 1Q22 and EGP11.99 billion in 4Q22 (+48.2% YoY, +16.3% QoQ). Solid annual and sequential revenue growth is driven by local and international IRU sales (one-offs), with wholesale revenues growing by 98% YoY and 49% QoQ; constituting 70% of topline growth. Retail revenues grew by 22.1% YoY and remained almost flat sequentially (-2.0% YoY). During the quarter, ETE...
HEADLINES: • Elbit Systems: 1Q23 results and earnings call POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: 1Q23 slightly above expectations, large share buyback launched NEUTRAL • Tauron: 1Q23 results in line with prelims • Motor Oil Hellas: 1Q23 results - better-than-expected margins • EME macro/strategy: May surveys show cooling activity, falling inflation • Kazakhstan macro: notes from our trip • Inter Cars: earnings call takeaways - high 5Y capex programme to trigger profitability improvement NEUTRAL • Telecom...
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