TGS (Buy, TP: NOK110.00) - Exposed to spending cuts

We maintain our positive view on TGS; however, we have cut our 2025–2026e FCF by 20%, as we believe oil companies’ capex cuts could have a meaningful impact on seismic spending and TGS’s revenues. That said, near-term FCF should be supported by self-help elements from the PGS merger, and we find decent valuation support, with the stock trading at a ~15% FCF yield and ~9% dividend yield on 2025e. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK110 (140).

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Energy Morning - 30 April 2025

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Muted 2025 growth expectations

Following Q1 earnings calls by some of the oil service companies, 2025 outlooks appear more challenging than previously. Baker Hughes expects international upstream spending to decline by mid- to high-single digits, while Halliburton sees its international revenues flat to slightly down. Furthermore, Weatherford expects 2025 international revenue to decline by low double- to mid-double digits. Precision Drilling flagged additional rig suspensions by Saudi Aramco, and SLB highlighted a slow start...

ENI capex cut but maintains shareholder returns

Driven by macro headwinds and uncertainty around trade tariffs, ENI was the first large oil company to introduce capex cuts for 2025, contributing to a more challenging business environment for oil services. Over the past five years, we estimate ENI to have been the oil major with strongest offshore spending growth, and it has been considered active and opportunistic while others have been more conservative. Hence, we see its reduction as a soft datapoint for oil services. ENI has optimised its ...

SalMar (Buy, TP: NOK650.00) - Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates for the volumes in the recent Q1 trading update and a back-end-loaded harvest profile in the quarter, with a higher share of downgrades. We expect operating EBIT of NOK997m for the quarter, c16% below consensus of NOK1,188m. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our NOK650 target price. The full Q1 report is due at 06:30 CET on 20 May.

Definite merger agreement with Wilsgård

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Time to revisit

The unfolding trade war has led us to cut our global 2025–2027e demand and trim our spot price estimates. The negative price effect is partly countered by reduced mortality boosting volumes and lowering costs, leading to net EPS cuts of 11–2%. Given the sector’s solid track record in adapting to past crises and recent share-price declines, we see a significantly improved risk/reward and have a positive stance on the sector. We have upgraded Mowi, Bakkafrost, and Grieg Seafood to BUY (HOLD).

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

Stolt-Nielsen Limited: 1 director

A director at Stolt-Nielsen Limited bought 5,000 shares at 222.000NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 60/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years...