Midea’s 3Q25 revenue was Rmb112,385m (+10% yoy, -9% qoq), and net profit was Rmb11,870m (+9% yoy, -13% qoq). In 3Q25, ToC revenue grew by 10%, of which domestic sales increased by mid-single-digit, and overseas sales grew by nearly 15%, with orders recovering rapidly in 3Q25. Management sees higher visibility for overseas markets for 2026, driven by the OBM business. ToB revenue increased by over 15%. The company expects ToB’s revenue growth to surpass that of the ToC segment in 2026.
                                                                                Top Stories Company Results | Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb80.80/Target: Rmb89.50) FII registered a stellar quarter, with net profit beating our and consensus estimates on stronger-than-expected margins. Top-line lagged our expectations, likely due to differences in product mix, and also the reason behind margins remaining elevated despite the product ramp-up of the lower-margin GB200 NVL72 racks. With the recent checks continuing to point towards a much stronger-than-expected ...
                                                                                We observed the following trends in holiday consumption: a) jewellery performed well on rising gold prices; b) retail and catering consumption was modest, with growth decelerating from that during the 2025 Spring Festival and Labour Day; c) specialty retail (duty-free) saw per capita spending improve; and d) consumers continued to show enthusiasm for tourism and leisure spending, with domestic long-haul travel and outbound travel gaining popularity. The lower-than-expected Macau visitor arrivals...
                                                                                On 16 Sep 25, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other government departments jointly issued a plan to expand service consumption. This plan introduces 19 measures focusing on five areas. We highlight IP-related consumption and tourism as the two primary themes positioned to benefit the most. In addition, the government plans to optimise student vacation schedules by exploring the possibility of shortening winter and summer vacations while introducing spring and autumn vacations to increase the ...
                                                                                In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are committed to enhancing shareholder returns. W...
                                                                                Greater China Sector Updates | Consumer In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are c...
                                                                                Midea’s 2Q25 results beat expectations, and the company has declared an interim dividend for the first time. The ToC segment was mainly driven by domestic sales, while overseas sales saw a gradual improvement into 3Q25. ToB sales increased by 17% yoy, and its growth is expected to accelerate this year. Management now has a more optimistic outlook, expecting high single-digit to double-digit revenue growth and net profit growth to outpace revenue growth. Maintain BUY; raise target price by 2% to ...
                                                                                KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI August's manufacturing PMI edged up slightly to 49.4 (+0.1pt mom), while non-manufacturing PMI improved modestly to 50.3 (+0.2pt mom). However, construction PMI fell to 49.1 (-1.5pt mom), below the expansion threshold for the first time since January. With moderating decline in new orders and new export orders, PMI for large-sized enterprise (50.8, +0.5pt mom) and small-sized enterprise (46.6, +0.2pt mom) both improved. Overall, a mixed bag. Results Alibaba Group...
                                                                                June’s HSI and MSCI China Index rose 3.4% mom and 4.0% mom respectively, despite the pullback due to the Middle East tensions. July may see increased volatility as the US looks to bring the tariff negotiations to a close. At this juncture, we continue to favour domestic policy beneficiaries and sector leaders. New additions to our BUY list are CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and Tencent Music Entertainment. We take profit on Prudential.
                                                                                GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Calls Add CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and TME to our BUY list. Take profit on Prudential. Sector Online Games Upcoming new game releases to capitalise on the summer holiday season. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In June Our new alpha picks are ANTM, BBCA, ERAA, ICBP, MYOR, MIKA...
                                                                                The recent suspension of home appliance subsidies in several provinces has raised market concerns about the slowdown in retail sales growth in the home appliance sector. While we believe the suspension of subsidies is temporary, we admit that the absence of government subsidies and uncertainty regarding the timing of the next round of support may lead consumers to postpone their home appliance purchases. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the home appliance sector. Our top pick is Midea.
                                                                                During the Labour Day holiday (1-5 May), Macau's visitor arrivals significantly beat the government's expectation. Retail and catering sales showed a modest improvement in terms of yoy growth compared with the Chinese New Year holiday, while home appliance sales continued to benefit from the trade-in programme, with premium products demonstrating robust growth. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the China consumer sector. Our top picks include CR Beer, Mengniu, and Moutai.
                                                                                GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Market watch around May holiday: New-home sales recovery weakens in Apr 25; the trend of Hong Kong resident travelling north remains strong. Sector Consumer Strong Macau visitations and robust home appliance sales during Labour Day Holiday. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/BUY/Rp2,540/Target:...
                                                                                In 1Q25, net profit grew 38% yoy, beating market expectations. Midea has proposed a spin-off of its subsidiary Annto Supply Chain Technology for a listing on HKEx. Annto is an integrated and intelligent supply chain solutions provider incubated by Midea. Following the spin-off, Midea will maintain its controlling interest in Annto. Maintain BUY; raise target price by 5% to Rmb111.90.
                                                                                KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/HOLD/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.00) CCB delivered disappointing 1Q25 results as net profit declined 4.0%, dragged by NIM compression and tepid fee income. Furthermore, revenue growth was no longer supported by trading gains, as yields rebounded during 1Q25. Asset quality was a silver lining as CCB highlighted the sequential improvement in the retail and property developer segments. Management also noted that tariff risk is manageable in terms of...
                                                                                Midea's 2024 results were in line with market expectations. For the ToC segment, OBM accounted for 43% of the overseas revenue. The ToB segment’s revenue increased by 7% yoy. For robotics & automation, the domestic market share of KUKA’s industrial robots rose to 8% by sales volume and to 15% by sales value. Midea raised its 2024 payout ratio to 69%, and it also announced a Rmb5b-10b share buyback, with at least 70% of the shares for cancellation. Maintain BUY. Target price: Rmb106.50.
                                                                                KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$6.70/Target: HK$7.50) CCB’s 2024 earnings (+0.9% yoy) were above our expectation, mainly driven by its resilient NIM on better deposit cost management, strong trading gains and lower impairment. Asset quality remains solid but pressure on the retail segment is increasing. MoF will inject Rmb105b of new capital into CCB which will result in a 4.3% equity dilution and 50bp boost in CET1 ratio. We expect a largely neutral market reacti...
                                                                                GREATER CHINA Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$6.70/Target: HK$7.50): 2024: Above expectations on better NIM; recapitalisation plan is finalised. China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877 HK/HOLD/HK$8.05/Target: HK$8.50): 2024: Bottom line misses; targets revenue growth of 10% yoy in 2025. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/BUY/HK$14.20/Target: HK$23.00): 4Q24: Earnings in line with estimates. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$23.00. Haier Smart Home (6690 HK/BUY/HK$24.70/Target: HK$37.80): 2024: 4Q...
                                                                                On 16 March, the State Council issued a plan on special initiatives to boost consumption, aiming to increase spending power by increasing income and reducing financial burdens, generate effective demand through high-quality supply, and improve the consumption environment to strengthen consumers’ willingness to spend. In the China consumer sector, we prefer Anta, CR Beer, Galaxy, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Yili. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
                                                                                Consumption during the CNY demonstrated a satisfactory momentum. Daily average sales revenue of consumer-related industries grew 11% yoy, with the home appliances and furnishing category recording the highest growth rate. Domestic tourism per capita spending increased 1% yoy and recovered to 95% of 2019’s level, and Hainan DF per capita spending rose 4% yoy. Macau visitations recovered to 95% of 2019’s level. In the China consumer space, we prefer Anta, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Sands Ch...
    
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