European equity markets weakened in October following multiple disappointments across the earnings season. The impending US election, the outcome of which is highly uncertain according to the polls, may also have prompted some traders to adopt a cautious stance. Sovereign long rates rose sharply, particularly in the US, on the back of macro indicators likely to provide arguments to the most hawkish of central bankers. All eyes are now on the November 5 elections and their repercussion...
Les marchés actions européens ont fléchi en octobre après les nombreuses déceptions sur la saison des résultats. L’approche de l’élection US, très incertaine selon les sondages, pourrait également avoir poussé à la prudence certains opérateurs. Les taux longs souverains ont nettement remonté, en particulier aux Etats-Unis, sur la base d’indicateurs macro susceptibles de donner des arguments aux plus faucons des banquiers centraux. Tous les yeux sont désormais rivés sur le scrutin du 5...
>Sales momentum progressively recovering from Argentina’s devaluation - Group sales grew 5% y-o-y in Q3 (vs +9% in Q2, -5% in Q1 and -8% in Q4), reaching € 1.2bn, in line with our estimate and the consensus. Organic growth, albeit very positive (+23%), is deteriorating sequentially (+43% in Q2 and +45% in Q1) as the FX burden (and its price compensation) gradually fades away. (FX 19pp vs -35pp in Q2 and -38pp in Q1). Reported sales for the cash division grew +1% y-o...
>Entering a sustainable growth period - Between 2018 and 2022, Prosegur’s alarms JV created with Telefonica in 2020 (Movistar Prosegur Alarmas) went through a period of fast growth (BTCs +23% CAGR to 445k) that entailed a high churn rate (+320bp over the period to 14.1%) and very limited recurring (€ 12m pre-SAC) cash generation (cash burn after SAC, capex, etc.). Its ROW (Portugal + LatAM) went through a similar phase but between the years 2016 and 2019 when the BTCs...
>Sales momentum progressively recovering from Argentina’s devaluation - Group sales grew 9% y-o-y in Q2 (vs -5% in Q1 and -8% in Q4), reaching € 1.2bn, in line with our estimate and the consensus. There was a material negative forex impact (-35pp vs -38pp in Q1) with the group still posting very solid organic growth of +43% (vs +45% in Q1 and +70% in Q4). Reported sales for the cash division grew +5% y-o-y in Q2 (vs -1% in Q1 and -20% in Q4), with organic sales at +45...
>Feedback from 52 companies present on day three - Our 13th edition of the ODDO BHF Nextcap Forum takes place on June 4 and 5 in Paris, and on June 6 virtually. Following the third day, which took place yesterday virtually at our Paris office with 52 companies in attendance, we publish hereafter feedback for those companies present:Aedas HomesLhyfeAfyrenMaisons Du MondeAltamirMcPhy EnergyAltriMister SpexAtresmediaNein...
>Feedback de 52 sociétés présentes le 3ème jour - Notre 13ème édition du ODDO BHF Nextcap Forum a lieu les 4 et 5 juin en physique à Paris et le 6 juin en virtuel. Suite à la troisième journée qui a eu lieu hier en virtuel avec 53 de sociétés présentes, nous publions ci-après un feedback pour chacune des sociétés couvertes :Aedas HomesLhyfeAfyrenMaisons Du MondeAltamirMcphy EnergyAltriMister SpexAtresmediaNeinor Homes§...
A director at Prosegur Compania De Securidad sold 43,602,149 shares at 1.630EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last...
L’offre de BHP sur Anglo American a confirmé l’intérêt des minières pour le cuivre dans un contexte de tensions croissantes sur la production et de difficultés à faire aboutir les projets. Les perspectives d’Anglo (Neutre) dans le cuivre sont désormais mieux valorisées, c’est aussi le cas de BHP (Neutre vs Sous-performance) mais pas encore assez, selon nous, sur Rio Tinto (Surperformance vs Neutre). En aval, Nexans et Montana Aerospace sont nos valeurs préférées (Surperformance) vs Au...
BHP's bid for Anglo American has confirmed interest from miners in copper in the context of increasingly challenged production and difficulties in fully completing projects. Anglo’s (Neutral) prospects in copper are now better valued and this is also the case for BHP (Neutral vs Underperform) although not so for Rio Tinto (Outperform vs Neutral). Downstream, Nexans and Montana Aerospace are our Top Picks (Outperform) vs Aurubis, Rexel and Prysmian (Neutral). - ...
>Progressively recovering from Argentina’s devaluation - Group sales grew -5% y-o-y in Q1 (vs -8% in Q4 and +2% in Q3), reaching € 1.1bn, broadly in line with our estimate and the consensus. There was a material negative forex impact (-38pp vs -77pp in Q4 2023) with the group still posting very solid organic growth of +45% (vs +70% in Q4 and +42% in Q3). Reported sales for the cash division declined -1% y-o-y in Q1 (vs -20% in Q4 and -3% in Q3), with organic sales a...
With momentum around electrification less favourable of late, we have seen a major shift in perception, from doubtless overly rose-tinted optimism to what looks to be similarly excessive pessimism. While we have reduced our BEV assumptions, we nonetheless still anticipate growth in the next few years (including this year), well ahead of that of the automotive market as a whole. In the face of these changes, the players in the value chain (mines, semiconductors, auto) are differently p...
Le momentum autour de l’électrification, moins favorable dernièrement, a conduit à un changement profond de perception, passant d’un optimisme sans doute excessif à un pessimisme qui le semble tout autant. En effet, si nous avons revu en baisse nos hypothèses, nous visons néanmoins toujours une croissance dans les années à venir (y compris cette année), bien supérieure à celle du marché automobile dans son ensemble. Face à ces changements, tous les acteurs au sein de la chaîne de vale...
>Gubel’s partial takeover bid for Prosegur ends with a13.2% acceptance - The Spanish market watchdog (CNMV) has announced that the voluntary partial takeover bid launched by Gubel for a maximum of 81.8m Prosegur shares representing 15% of its share capital has been accepted for 72.1m shares, representing 13.2% of the share capital. The resulting free float of the company after the bid is 20.6% .We update our rating to Neutral - Inflation is playing a ...
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