reports
Novo Nordisk AS: 1 director
Two Directors at Novo Nordisk AS bought 3,096 shares at 709.250DKK. The significance rating of the trade was 73/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - Wegovy roll-out boost
Q3 LCY sales growth was in line with our expectations, while LCY operating profit fell short. Based on the implied higher rebates in Q3, we have adjusted our Wegovy and Ozempic rebate estimates, offset by ROW Wegovy stock-build. The 2024 guidance for LCY sales growth was raised to 23–27% and LCY operating profit growth to 21–27%. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,150 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - Consensus Wegovy sales aligning
We are just below consensus on Q3e LCY sales growth, reflecting our lower Wegovy and Ozempic sales, we believe due to some contributors lacking US prescription data, or differences in rebate assumptions (we see limited risk of Q3 wholesale inventory reductions). We expect management to narrow the 2024 guidance for YOY LCY sales growth to 24–28% (from 22–28%) and LCY operating profit growth of 22–28% (20–28%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,150 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - CagriSema set to raise the bar
We remain below Visible Alpha consensus on Q3 LCY figures, likely due to our lower assumptions of realised Wegovy and Ozempic US prescriptions. With the Q3 results, we still expect management to narrow the 2024 guidance for LCY sales growth of 24–28% YOY (22–28%) and LCY operating profit growth of 22–28% YOY (20–28%). We focus on the REDEFINE-1 headline results (due in Q4) and expect CagriSema to show a c27% weight loss. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,150 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1200.00) - Wegovy roll-out continues
While Q2 LCY sales growth was below expectations, LCY operating profit growth beat our forecast, partly due to lower realised S&D costs. We maintain our 2024 rebate assumption for Wegovy but have raised our Ozempic rebate estimate based on high Q2 rebates. The 2024 guidance was raised to LCY sales growth of 22–28% (previously 19–27%) and operating profit growth of 20–28% (16–24%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,200 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1200.00) - Company consensus added
We are slightly above consensus on Q2e LCY sales growth (we forecast 26.8%, consensus 26.4%), but below on LCY operating profit growth (we forecast 4.4%, consensus 8.7%), as we believe the DKK5.7bn impairment loss is not fully reflected in consensus. We expect management to raise the 2024 guidance for YOY LCY sales growth to 23–31% (currently 19–27%) and LCY operating profit growth to 20–28% (16–24% including the c6%-points drag from the impairment loss in Q2). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,200 ...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1200.00) - Expecting strong top-line growth
We forecast solid LCY sales growth of 26.8% YOY in Q2 (consensus 24.6%), driven by GLP-1, but just 4.4% LCY operating profit growth (consensus 19.1%), hurt by a DKK5.7bn impairment. We expect management to revise its 2024 guidance for LCY sales growth to 23–31% (19–27%) and LCY operating profit growth to 20–28 (22–30%), including a c6%-point drag from the impairment loss. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,200 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1200.00) - Impairment loss in 2024
Based on the interim analysis, the CLARION-CKD phase III trial has been halted, as it failed to meet its primary endpoint. Thus, Novo Nordisk will incur an impairment loss of cDKK5.7bn in Q2, corresponding to a c6%-points negative effect on LCY operating profit growth versus the guidance from Q1. We still expect Novo Nordisk to increase its 2024 guidance for LCY sales growth to 23–31%, but having factored in the impairment loss, we now expect operating profit guidance of 20–28%. We reiterate our...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1200.00) - Co-morbidities in focus at ADA
Focus at the 2024 American Diabetes Association (ADA) conference on 21–24 June was on the health benefits of treating obesity and the positive impact on comorbidities. Based on our observations, we expect broad-based penetration of GLP-1 drugs in the US, with prescribers ranging from cardiologists to pulmonologists. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK1,200 (1,100), mainly on higher forecast GLP-1 sales.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Small guidance raise
Q1 LCY figures beat consensus due to US rebate adjustments related to 2023 adding c5%-points to LCY growth and low SG&A cost boosting EBIT growth in Q1. Wegovy sales were below consensus but above our forecast, and we have therefore adjusted our rebate assumptions for 2024. The 2024 guidance was raised to LCY sales growth of 19–27% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 22–30% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Company consensus added
We are slightly below consensus on Q1e LCY sales growth (we forecast 19.4%, consensus 21.4%) and LCY operating profit growth (we forecast 16.8%, consensus 19.5%), due to lower expected Wegovy sales. However, we believe the Ozempic US prescription trend will prompt management to raise the 2024 guidance to LCY sales growth of 20–28% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 23–31% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Ozempic to drive raised guidance
We are slightly below consensus on Q1 LCY sales growth (we forecast 19.4%, consensus 20.1%) and LCY operating profit growth (we forecast 16.8%, consensus 17.3%), due to lower expected Wegovy sales. However, we believe the trend in Ozempic US prescriptions will prompt management to raise the 2024 guidance to LCY sales growth of 20–28% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 23–31% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Raising the bar with amycretin
At its CMD, the company maintained its strategic aspirations for 2025. It also expects increasing operating profit margins in the coming years. A key focus was the phase I trial results for amycretin in obesity, showing 13.1% weight loss (no signs of plateau). While not confirmed, we still expect it to go directly to phase III development. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to DKK1,100 (1,000) on higher pipeline valuation.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1000.00) - Catalent: game changer
We believe the move by Novo Holding to acquire Catalent and re-sell the three fill-finish facilities to Novo Nordisk is inspired, and underpins the strength of having the foundation as a major shareholder. With the acquisition, the obesity opportunity moves from supply to demand-driven, while at the same time making scale a significant competitive advantage. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to DKK1,000 (800).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK800.00) - Solid wide guidance
The wide 2024 guidance for local currency (LCY) growth of 18–26% for sales and 21–29% for operating profit reflects the uncertainty over supply and demand for Ozempic and Wegovy. Yet the sharp capex increase highlights confidence in the long-term growth outlook. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to DKK800 (750) on a solid Q4 result and outlook.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK750.00) - Company consensus added
We forecast Q4 LCY sales growth of 36.4% YOY (consensus 37.0%) and LCY operating profit growth of 61.7% (consensus 58.5%). For Q4 Ozempic and Wegovy sales, we are well below consensus, with our calculations indicating consensus has included inventory build-up well above our forecasts. We expect 2024 guidance for 18–24% LCY sales growth and 22–28% LCY operating profit growth. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK750 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK750.00) - Likely below 2023 mid-point targe...
Based on US scripts, we believe LCY sales growth slowed in Q4 and forecast 2023 below the guidance mid-point of 33.9% YOY. Benefiting from product mix, we estimate 2023 LCY operating profit growth at the guidance mid-point. We expect 2024 guidance for 18–24% LCY sales growth and 22–28% LCY operating profit growth. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK750 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK750.00) - Higher US Wegovy rebate for 2024e
Data from the North Carolina Health Plan indicates a c9%-point higher US Wegovy rebate YOY for 2024. Thus, we have raised our 2024e US Wegovy rebate assumption from 50% to 53.6% and forecast global Wegovy sales of DKK57,955m (down c7% on unchanged prescription assumptions). We expect continued strong Ozempic momentum for 2024 and reported sales growth of c26% YOY. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK750 target price.
- Bruno Cavalier
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/13/2023
We are adding CaixaBank and Deutsche Börse to the ODDO BHF European Large Caps List. At the same time, we are removing Accor (market scepticism on the hotel sector, valuation drivers behind us) and Ryanair (same market scepticism on travel, very good Q3 results having already helped the stock rally). We are also downgrading the Travel & Leisure sector from Overweight to Market Weight. Since its creation, the ODDO BHF European Large Caps List has recorded a total return of +8.5% compar...
- Bruno Cavalier
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 13/11/2023
Nous faisons entrer CaixaBank et Deutsche Börse dans notre liste de Valeurs recommandées Large Caps. Inversement, nous faisons sortir Accor (scepticisme du marché sur le secteur de l’hôtellerie, catalyseurs derrière nous) et Ryanair (même scepticisme du marché sur les voyages, les très bons résultats T3 ont permis le rebond du titre). Nous dégradons également le secteur du Travel & Leisure de Surpondérer à Neutre. Depuis sa création, notre liste enregistre un total return de +8,5% vs ...
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