Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Ozempic to drive raised guidance

We are slightly below consensus on Q1 LCY sales growth (we forecast 19.4%, consensus 20.1%) and LCY operating profit growth (we forecast 16.8%, consensus 17.3%), due to lower expected Wegovy sales. However, we believe the trend in Ozempic US prescriptions will prompt management to raise the 2024 guidance to LCY sales growth of 20–28% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 23–31% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Raising the bar with amycretin

At its CMD, the company maintained its strategic aspirations for 2025. It also expects increasing operating profit margins in the coming years. A key focus was the phase I trial results for amycretin in obesity, showing 13.1% weight loss (no signs of plateau). While not confirmed, we still expect it to go directly to phase III development. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to DKK1,100 (1,000) on higher pipeline valuation.

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1000.00) - Catalent: game changer

We believe the move by Novo Holding to acquire Catalent and re-sell the three fill-finish facilities to Novo Nordisk is inspired, and underpins the strength of having the foundation as a major shareholder. With the acquisition, the obesity opportunity moves from supply to demand-driven, while at the same time making scale a significant competitive advantage. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to DKK1,000 (800).

Novo Nordisk AS: 6 directors

Six Directors at Novo Nordisk AS sold after exercising options/sold 388,571 shares at between 797.100DKK and 823.090DKK. The significance rating of the trade was 75/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all ...

Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK800.00) - Solid wide guidance

The wide 2024 guidance for local currency (LCY) growth of 18–26% for sales and 21–29% for operating profit reflects the uncertainty over supply and demand for Ozempic and Wegovy. Yet the sharp capex increase highlights confidence in the long-term growth outlook. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to DKK800 (750) on a solid Q4 result and outlook.

Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK750.00) - Company consensus added

We forecast Q4 LCY sales growth of 36.4% YOY (consensus 37.0%) and LCY operating profit growth of 61.7% (consensus 58.5%). For Q4 Ozempic and Wegovy sales, we are well below consensus, with our calculations indicating consensus has included inventory build-up well above our forecasts. We expect 2024 guidance for 18–24% LCY sales growth and 22–28% LCY operating profit growth. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK750 target price.

Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK750.00) - Likely below 2023 mid-point targe...

Based on US scripts, we believe LCY sales growth slowed in Q4 and forecast 2023 below the guidance mid-point of 33.9% YOY. Benefiting from product mix, we estimate 2023 LCY operating profit growth at the guidance mid-point. We expect 2024 guidance for 18–24% LCY sales growth and 22–28% LCY operating profit growth. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK750 target price.

Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK750.00) - Higher US Wegovy rebate for 2024e

Data from the North Carolina Health Plan indicates a c9%-point higher US Wegovy rebate YOY for 2024. Thus, we have raised our 2024e US Wegovy rebate assumption from 50% to 53.6% and forecast global Wegovy sales of DKK57,955m (down c7% on unchanged prescription assumptions). We expect continued strong Ozempic momentum for 2024 and reported sales growth of c26% YOY. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK750 target price.

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/13/2023

We are adding CaixaBank and Deutsche Börse to the ODDO BHF European Large Caps List. At the same time, we are removing Accor (market scepticism on the hotel sector, valuation drivers behind us) and Ryanair (same market scepticism on travel, very good Q3 results having already helped the stock rally). We are also downgrading the Travel & Leisure sector from Overweight to Market Weight. Since its creation, the ODDO BHF European Large Caps List has recorded a total return of +8.5% compar...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 13/11/2023

Nous faisons entrer CaixaBank et Deutsche Börse dans notre liste de Valeurs recommandées Large Caps. Inversement, nous faisons sortir Accor (scepticisme du marché sur le secteur de l’hôtellerie, catalyseurs derrière nous) et Ryanair (même scepticisme du marché sur les voyages, les très bons résultats T3 ont permis le rebond du titre). Nous dégradons également le secteur du Travel & Leisure de Surpondérer à Neutre. Depuis sa création, notre liste enregistre un total return de +8,5% vs ...

Novo Nordisk : SELECT: results that justify a change in patient care

>Confirmation of Wegovy's role in cardiac protection for obese patients - At the AHA (American Heart Association) congress, Novo Nordisk recapped on the clinical results of its SELECT trial. Note that the objective of this trial was to demonstrate that, in patients suffering from obesity and cardiovascular disease without a history of diabetes, taking Wegovy improved cardiovascular function in this population (n=17,604). The primary endpoint was a composite (taking se...

Novo Nordisk : SELECT: des résultats qui justifient un changement de l...

>Confirmation de l’intérêt de Wegovy dans la protection cardiaque des obèses - Novo Nordisk est revenu, lors du congrès de l’AHA, sur les résultats cliniques de son essai nommé SELECT. Pour rappel, l’objectif de cet essai était de démontrer que la prise de Wegovy chez des patients souffrant d'obésité et d'une maladie cardiovasculaire sans antécédents de diabète améliorait la fonction cardio-vasculaire de cette population (n=17 604). Le critère primaire était un critèr...

Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK750.00) - Non-fatal MI drives 3-point MACE

We attended the AHA conference in Philadelphia, where Novo Nordisk presented its detailed SELECT data. All three components contributed to the 20% MACE reduction, but only non-fatal MI was statistically significant. We expect a global label expansion for Wegovy in 2024, but likely without a CV death benefit claim. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK750 target price.

Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK750.00) - US pricing dynamic unchanged

Q3 local currency (LCY) sales and operating profit growth was driven by Q1–Q3 rebate adjustments for Wegovy and Ozempic. We have cut our 2023 Wegovy rebate assumptions but see unchanged pricing dynamics with higher rebates. We look to the detailed SELECT data, set for release at the AHA conference on 10 November. Novo Nordisk has filed for label extension with the FDA (priority review). We reiterate our HOLD and DKK750 target price.

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 02/11/2023

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Novo Nordisk : GLP-1 market is buoyant

>Top-line growth of 38% and EBIT growth of 47% in Q3 - In mid-October, Novo Nordisk pre-published both its Q3 growth figures and an upward revision of its 2023 guidance. The group's total sales came to DKK 58.731bn, up 38% cc (29%/33% cc over 9M). This performance was largely driven by volume sales of its GLP1 franchise, and in particular Ozempic in the US, even though the latter came in marginally below expectations (Victoza compensated). The drug reached DKK 2...

Novo Nordisk : Le marché du GLP-1 se porte bien

>Une croissance de 38% en topline et de 47% de son EBIT lors du T3 - Novo Nordisk avait pré-publié mi-octobre à la fois sa croissance du T3 ainsi qu’une révision à la hausse de sa guidance 2023. Les ventes globales du groupe ressortent ainsi à 58.731 MdDKK en croissance de 38% à tcc (29% / 33% à tcc sur les 9M). Cette performance est largement tirée par les ventes en volume de sa franchise GLP-1 et tout particulièrement Ozempic aux Etats-Unis même si celui-ci re...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 16/10/2023

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