reports
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Subdued prescription growth in Q1
We have updated our model with the latest IQVIA data, and see downside risk to Visible Alpha consensus. We see Q1e global sales for Wegovy of DKK17,898m (c2.2% below consensus) and Ozempic of DKK31,642m (c1.5% below consensus). While a reaffirmation of guidance could offer relief, we have lowered our target price, primarily on lower-than-expected GLP-1 sales. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK900 (1,040).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - Deal delivery
We are positive on the partnership with Roche for petrelintide and view the financial terms as favourable for Zealand Pharma. While we had included Roche as the partner for petrelintide in our base case, the deal terms are better than we assumed. Thus, we have updated our valuation for petrelintide to DKK731 NPV/share. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to DKK1,150 (1,010), based on our SOTP NPV.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1010.00) - Poised for big news
Q4 revenue was DKK9.1m, driven by the Zegalogue licence and development agreement with Novo Nordisk, and EBIT was DKK-399.3m (we forecast DKK-370.1m, consensus DKK-367.6m). The 2025 opex guidance was for DKK2,000m–2,500m, reflecting pipeline progression investments. We expect strong pipeline news flow in H1, including dapiglutide headline results and potentially a petrelintide partnership. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,010 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1010.00) - Focus on partnership discussion...
We expect an uneventful Q4 report, but with investor focus on the ongoing petrelintide partnership discussions. Our base case derives DKK593/share for petrelintide, assuming a profit-sharing agreement in H1. We believe recruitment for the petrelintide phase II trial will be completed in H1 (headline results in Q1 2026e) and look for 2025 opex guidance of DKK1,750m–1,850m. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,010 target price.
Novo Nordisk AS: 1 director
A director at Novo Nordisk AS sold after exercising options/sold 40,000 shares at 620.260DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1040.00) - Credibility rebuilding
We attended a management roundtable discussion in London today. Highlights included focus on the obesity portfolio with the CagriSema results and launch delay, Amycretin, and early-stage candidates. Management remains confident in its ability to scale beyond 2025, aided by the acquisition of Catalent and the resolution of Wegovy and Ozempic supply issues by 2026. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,040 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1040.00) - Turning point achieved
The company met its full-year guidance, with c26% LCY sales and operating profit growth in Q4. We believe the 2025 guidance for 16–24% LCY sales growth and 19–27% operating profit growth indicates strong operating leverage. At tomorrow’s ‘Meet the Management’ event, we expect GLP-1 supply to be the key focus. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,040 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1040.00) - Wegovy sales hinge on supply
Based on realised US prescriptions, we forecast LCY to be below the 2024 guidance midpoint. Our Q4e sales for Wegovy and Ozempic are below consensus, likely due to a lack of script data among contributors, inventory fluctuations, or different rebate assumptions. We expect 2025 LCY guidance for 15–23% sales growth and 16–24% operating profit growth. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,040 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1040.00) - Disappointing CagriSema data
In REDEFINE-1, CagriSema reached a 22.7% product estimand weight loss, shy of expectations. We expect a launch in 2026, but have lowered our estimate of its sales potential. In our view, the flexible protocol affected efficacy, prompting Novo Nordisk to initiate a new phase III trial in 2025. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to DKK1,040 (1,150).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1010.00) - Glepaglutide uncertainty
The FDA has concluded that Zealand Pharma’s application for glepaglutide in short bowel syndrome did not accommodate its requirements. As a result, Zealand Pharma expects to initiate a phase III trial in 2025 to support approvals ex-EU and provide confirmatory evidence for a regulatory resubmission in the US. We now assume a 48% POS for glepaglutide and have cut our risk-adjusted NPV/share to DKK31. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK1,010 (1,050).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - Adding extra weight with Catalent
Novo Holdings’ Catalent deal and the resale of three sites to Novo Nordisk has finally cleared. We already had Catalent in our model and forecast it to add a step-up in obesity sales from 2026. In our view, this move underpins the strength of having Novo Holdings’ as the major shareholder. For 2025, we expect guidance for 15–23% LCY sales growth and 14–22% LCY operating profit growth. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,150 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Zealand Pharma - Initiation of coverage - Bulking up for the big leagu...
We initiate coverage with a BUY and target price of DKK1,050. We see petrelintide as potentially the first and best-in-class amylin, offering GLP-1-like efficacy but with better tolerability and weight-loss composition. We expect a petrelintide profit-sharing agreement in H1 2025, with Roche as the most likely partner in our view. We see its three obesity candidates having the potential to reach a c8% share in a cUSD227bn market by 2042e.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - Wegovy roll-out boost
Q3 LCY sales growth was in line with our expectations, while LCY operating profit fell short. Based on the implied higher rebates in Q3, we have adjusted our Wegovy and Ozempic rebate estimates, offset by ROW Wegovy stock-build. The 2024 guidance for LCY sales growth was raised to 23–27% and LCY operating profit growth to 21–27%. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,150 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - Consensus Wegovy sales aligning
We are just below consensus on Q3e LCY sales growth, reflecting our lower Wegovy and Ozempic sales, we believe due to some contributors lacking US prescription data, or differences in rebate assumptions (we see limited risk of Q3 wholesale inventory reductions). We expect management to narrow the 2024 guidance for YOY LCY sales growth to 24–28% (from 22–28%) and LCY operating profit growth of 22–28% (20–28%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,150 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - CagriSema set to raise the bar
We remain below Visible Alpha consensus on Q3 LCY figures, likely due to our lower assumptions of realised Wegovy and Ozempic US prescriptions. With the Q3 results, we still expect management to narrow the 2024 guidance for LCY sales growth of 24–28% YOY (22–28%) and LCY operating profit growth of 22–28% YOY (20–28%). We focus on the REDEFINE-1 headline results (due in Q4) and expect CagriSema to show a c27% weight loss. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,150 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1200.00) - Wegovy roll-out continues
While Q2 LCY sales growth was below expectations, LCY operating profit growth beat our forecast, partly due to lower realised S&D costs. We maintain our 2024 rebate assumption for Wegovy but have raised our Ozempic rebate estimate based on high Q2 rebates. The 2024 guidance was raised to LCY sales growth of 22–28% (previously 19–27%) and operating profit growth of 20–28% (16–24%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,200 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1200.00) - Company consensus added
We are slightly above consensus on Q2e LCY sales growth (we forecast 26.8%, consensus 26.4%), but below on LCY operating profit growth (we forecast 4.4%, consensus 8.7%), as we believe the DKK5.7bn impairment loss is not fully reflected in consensus. We expect management to raise the 2024 guidance for YOY LCY sales growth to 23–31% (currently 19–27%) and LCY operating profit growth to 20–28% (16–24% including the c6%-points drag from the impairment loss in Q2). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,200 ...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1200.00) - Expecting strong top-line growth
We forecast solid LCY sales growth of 26.8% YOY in Q2 (consensus 24.6%), driven by GLP-1, but just 4.4% LCY operating profit growth (consensus 19.1%), hurt by a DKK5.7bn impairment. We expect management to revise its 2024 guidance for LCY sales growth to 23–31% (19–27%) and LCY operating profit growth to 20–28 (22–30%), including a c6%-point drag from the impairment loss. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,200 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1200.00) - Impairment loss in 2024
Based on the interim analysis, the CLARION-CKD phase III trial has been halted, as it failed to meet its primary endpoint. Thus, Novo Nordisk will incur an impairment loss of cDKK5.7bn in Q2, corresponding to a c6%-points negative effect on LCY operating profit growth versus the guidance from Q1. We still expect Novo Nordisk to increase its 2024 guidance for LCY sales growth to 23–31%, but having factored in the impairment loss, we now expect operating profit guidance of 20–28%. We reiterate our...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1200.00) - Co-morbidities in focus at ADA
Focus at the 2024 American Diabetes Association (ADA) conference on 21–24 June was on the health benefits of treating obesity and the positive impact on comorbidities. Based on our observations, we expect broad-based penetration of GLP-1 drugs in the US, with prescribers ranging from cardiologists to pulmonologists. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK1,200 (1,100), mainly on higher forecast GLP-1 sales.
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