Novo Nordisk AS: 1 director

A director at Novo Nordisk AS bought 2,350 shares at 349.044DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 61/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...

Nordic non-life insurance - Q2 reporting wrap

Strong insurance outcome and financials

Stronger insurance and profit sharing

Heads-up for Q2-report, 11 July

AUM rebound drives earnings growth

Norway: Best ideas Q2'25

Insurance trip: 16 insurers in three days

Non-life have price increases > inflation in all markets, most in Norway. Life insurance growth with rapid growth & dividend payments. Prefer ALMB, Sampo, Solid, Tryg among non-life; STB for life

ROE held back by too-high capital base

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK950.00) - Dapiglutide likely next catalyst

Q1 revenue missed expectations on lower reimbursement revenue, while operating profit was a beat, as opex was below our forecast and consensus. The 2025 guidance was maintained for opex of DKK2,000m–2,500m. We believe the next potential share-price catalyst is the top-line results from the phase Ib dapiglutide trial in Q2e. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to DKK950 (1,000).

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK149.00) - Insurance repricing on track

Q1 PTP before amortisation was NOK1,167m, up 8% YOY, driven by strong growth in Banking and Insurance. While high sales activity had a negative impact on the insurance cost ratio, the combined ratio continued to improve through premium growth of 20% YOY, leaving Storebrand close to the 90–92% target for 2025. We have made fairly limited EPS revisions for 2026–2027e, and reiterate our BUY and NOK149 target price.

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Accelerated Wegovy roll-out ahead

Q1 LCY figures beat our forecasts, while the 2025 guidance was cut to 13–21% LCY sales growth YOY and 16–24% LCY operating profit growth YOY due to weaker GLP-1 sales. We have lowered our rebate for US Ozempic but maintain our 52% Wegovy rebate (in line with the Q1 rebate when adjusting for de-stocking). We reiterate our BUY and DKK900 target price.

Softer operating profit, better financials

Adj PTP +5%/-2%, on better financials, but much weaker op.profit. Softer fee, insurance and opex behind the miss, financials beat. Cons.est.rev -2-4%, stock -2% to 4% on the operating profit miss

Heads-up for Q1-report, 7 May

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Underlying soft GLP-1 sales

We forecast a soft Q1, with 17.3% LCY sales growth and 13.8% LCY operating profit growth due to subdued prescriptions. While we estimate Ozempic sales c0.5% below consensus, we are c1.2% above for Wegovy, as we include DKK1bn in sales related to Wegovy US inventories. We see likely relief from potential unchanged 2025 LCY guidance, supported by improved Wegovy supply and fading pressure from compounders. We reiterate our BUY and DKK900 target price.

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1000.00) - Focus on pipeline progression

We expect an uneventful Q1 report, with investor focus on top-line results from the dapiglutide phase Ib obesity trial (due in Q2), which could help provide clarity on the positioning of the molecule in obesity and inflammation. For petrelintide, we have reduced our peak sales forecast to cUSD10.0bn (cUSD10.8bn) on increased competition from GUBamy. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK1,000 (1,150).

A setback for AUM and returns

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Subdued prescription growth in Q1

We have updated our model with the latest IQVIA data, and see downside risk to Visible Alpha consensus. We see Q1e global sales for Wegovy of DKK17,898m (c2.2% below consensus) and Ozempic of DKK31,642m (c1.5% below consensus). While a reaffirmation of guidance could offer relief, we have lowered our target price, primarily on lower-than-expected GLP-1 sales. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK900 (1,040).

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK149.00) - Strong start to the year

Fuelled by strong AUM growth within Savings, and the effects of several rounds of insurance repricing, we forecast a Q1 PTP (before amortisation) of NOK1,166m, ~8% stronger YOY. With the new NOK1.5bn buyback underway, the company is offering an attractive payout yield of 6–7%. We believe the stock is attractively valued at a 2026e P/E of c10x, when adjusting for the excess capital to be distributed. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to NOK149 (140).

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - Deal delivery

We are positive on the partnership with Roche for petrelintide and view the financial terms as favourable for Zealand Pharma. While we had included Roche as the partner for petrelintide in our base case, the deal terms are better than we assumed. Thus, we have updated our valuation for petrelintide to DKK731 NPV/share. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to DKK1,150 (1,010), based on our SOTP NPV.