Novo Nordisk AS: 1 director

A director at Novo Nordisk AS sold 55,000 shares at 902.625DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 81/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Small guidance raise

Q1 LCY figures beat consensus due to US rebate adjustments related to 2023 adding c5%-points to LCY growth and low SG&A cost boosting EBIT growth in Q1. Wegovy sales were below consensus but above our forecast, and we have therefore adjusted our rebate assumptions for 2024. The 2024 guidance was raised to LCY sales growth of 19–27% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 22–30% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.

Storebrand ASA: 1 director

A director at Storebrand ASA maiden bought 10,000 shares at 106.500NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 59/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two year...

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Company consensus added

We are slightly below consensus on Q1e LCY sales growth (we forecast 19.4%, consensus 21.4%) and LCY operating profit growth (we forecast 16.8%, consensus 19.5%), due to lower expected Wegovy sales. However, we believe the Ozempic US prescription trend will prompt management to raise the 2024 guidance to LCY sales growth of 20–28% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 23–31% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.

Earnings growth = higher capital repatriation

Q1 was softer than our bullish expectation, but a clear cons beat. Overall estimates intact and SBB of NOK 1.1bn has started. Earnings growth should warrant higher P/E multiple - BUY.

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK125.00) - Signs of gradual improvement

Q1 PTP was up 30% YOY, largely driven by strong AUM growth and increased interest rates. The Insurance segment showed signs of improvement after several rounds of repricing in previous quarters, supporting the 2025 financial targets. Following regulatory approval and a 191% Solvency II ratio, Storebrand launched a NOK1.1bn buyback programme. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK125 (120) following ~4% positive EPS revisions for 2025e.

Better from insurance

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Ozempic to drive raised guidance

We are slightly below consensus on Q1 LCY sales growth (we forecast 19.4%, consensus 20.1%) and LCY operating profit growth (we forecast 16.8%, consensus 17.3%), due to lower expected Wegovy sales. However, we believe the trend in Ozempic US prescriptions will prompt management to raise the 2024 guidance to LCY sales growth of 20–28% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 23–31% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK120.00) - Strong AUM momentum

Storebrand is set to benefit from strong equity markets in Q1, as we expect AUM to be up ~22% YOY. Together with solid profit sharing from the Swedish Guaranteed business, this should offset a soft insurance result from harsh weather and disability benefits, resulting in Q1 profit before amortisation of NOK924m, up 20% YOY. We forecast a Q1 Solvency II ratio of 195%, supporting continued buybacks in line with the 2023 CMD target of NOK12bn by 2030. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–3% and o...

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Raising the bar with amycretin

At its CMD, the company maintained its strategic aspirations for 2025. It also expects increasing operating profit margins in the coming years. A key focus was the phase I trial results for amycretin in obesity, showing 13.1% weight loss (no signs of plateau). While not confirmed, we still expect it to go directly to phase III development. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to DKK1,100 (1,000) on higher pipeline valuation.

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1000.00) - Catalent: game changer

We believe the move by Novo Holding to acquire Catalent and re-sell the three fill-finish facilities to Novo Nordisk is inspired, and underpins the strength of having the foundation as a major shareholder. With the acquisition, the obesity opportunity moves from supply to demand-driven, while at the same time making scale a significant competitive advantage. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to DKK1,000 (800).

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK118.00) - Further insurance repricing needed

Cash-equivalent earnings before amortisation were 13% higher in Q4 YOY despite the soft trend within Insurance. Repricing measures were taken throughout 2023 and as part of the 1 January renewal, with management expecting the targeted profitability to be reached in 2025. The board proposed a new NOK400m buyback programme, with the remaining NOK1.1bn to come after the AGM. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our 2025e EPS by 3% and our target price to NOK118 (120).

Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK800.00) - Solid wide guidance

The wide 2024 guidance for local currency (LCY) growth of 18–26% for sales and 21–29% for operating profit reflects the uncertainty over supply and demand for Ozempic and Wegovy. Yet the sharp capex increase highlights confidence in the long-term growth outlook. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to DKK800 (750) on a solid Q4 result and outlook.

Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK750.00) - Company consensus added

We forecast Q4 LCY sales growth of 36.4% YOY (consensus 37.0%) and LCY operating profit growth of 61.7% (consensus 58.5%). For Q4 Ozempic and Wegovy sales, we are well below consensus, with our calculations indicating consensus has included inventory build-up well above our forecasts. We expect 2024 guidance for 18–24% LCY sales growth and 22–28% LCY operating profit growth. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK750 target price.

Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK750.00) - Likely below 2023 mid-point targe...

Based on US scripts, we believe LCY sales growth slowed in Q4 and forecast 2023 below the guidance mid-point of 33.9% YOY. Benefiting from product mix, we estimate 2023 LCY operating profit growth at the guidance mid-point. We expect 2024 guidance for 18–24% LCY sales growth and 22–28% LCY operating profit growth. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK750 target price.

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK120.00) - Higher AUM supporting earnings

We expect strong equity and bond markets to help drive AUM growth in Q4, and for performance fees to further raise earnings from Asset Management, contributing to profit before amortisation of NOK1,195m, up 42% YOY. We expect the solvency to remain strong at 203%, supporting continued buybacks in line with the newly revised CMD ambition of NOK12bn by 2030. We have increased our 2025e EPS by ~1% owing to higher AUM, and raised our target price to NOK120 (119), reiterating our BUY.

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK119.00) - Targeting NOK5bn by 2025

Storebrand hosted its 2023 CMD on 13 December, with key focus on reaching ~NOK5bn in profit before amortisation and tax by 2025. Growth in capital-light earnings, Insurance repricing, and a gradual increase of profit sharing are crucial to reaching this, in our view. Management also raised the buyback target to ~NOK12bn by 2030 (previously NOK10bn), after the NOK2bn announced in 2022–2023. We have reduced our 2025e EPS by 3%, while we reiterate our BUY and NOK119 target price.

Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK750.00) - Higher US Wegovy rebate for 2024e

Data from the North Carolina Health Plan indicates a c9%-point higher US Wegovy rebate YOY for 2024. Thus, we have raised our 2024e US Wegovy rebate assumption from 50% to 53.6% and forecast global Wegovy sales of DKK57,955m (down c7% on unchanged prescription assumptions). We expect continued strong Ozempic momentum for 2024 and reported sales growth of c26% YOY. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK750 target price.

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK119.00) - Earnings growth and capital release

We believe the structural growth in Unit Linked pensions remains the most important earnings driver for Storebrand and is likely to be a key focal point at the 2023 CMD on 13 December. Focus should also be on the effects of higher interest rates (given the sharp rise since the 2020 CMD) on earnings and excess capital generation. We expect Storebrand to announce a profit before amortisation target of >NOK5bn for 2025 and capital distributions of >NOK15bn by end-2032. We reiterate our BUY and have...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/13/2023

We are adding CaixaBank and Deutsche Börse to the ODDO BHF European Large Caps List. At the same time, we are removing Accor (market scepticism on the hotel sector, valuation drivers behind us) and Ryanair (same market scepticism on travel, very good Q3 results having already helped the stock rally). We are also downgrading the Travel & Leisure sector from Overweight to Market Weight. Since its creation, the ODDO BHF European Large Caps List has recorded a total return of +8.5% compar...