Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK52.00) - (Buy)back in business

The Q4 report was solid, featuring low credit losses and the start of share buybacks. We continue to see upside potential from our expected c20% annual total yield, along with reductions in past-due loans. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK52 (50).

Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK50.00) - Funding uncertainty

We see low probability of dividend payments for 2024 due to increased risk after Avanza’s announced shutdown of its external deposits. This looks reflected in consensus though. We still see mid-term upside potential on the stock as stage 3 loans normalise. We reiterate our BUY but have reduced our target price to SEK50 (52).

Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK52.00) - Asset quality recovery in sight

Q3 earnings were solid, in our view. We remain positive on the stock, expecting the initiation of dividend payments and resolved past-due loans. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK52 (51).

Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK51.00) - The stress test continues

We expect some continued short-term headwinds on Q3 NII from elevated levels of past-due loans in Real Estate. However, these loans should be resolved over time, and we still find the risk of elevated credit losses exaggerated. Upcoming catalysts include a possible start of dividend payments in Q4, as well as a potential near-term IPO of NOBA. We reiterate our BUY and SEK51 target price.

Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK51.00) - Asset quality being put to the test

Q2 earnings were solid on the whole, apart from real estate NII dipping 22% QOQ due to stage 3 migrations. We see a risk of somewhat depressed revenues for a few quarters, but we maintain a positive growth outlook, and still find the stock undervalued at c6x earnings for 2025e, adjusted for excess capital. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK51 (53).

Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK53.00) - Setting the stage for dividends

We expect credit losses to be in focus for the rest of 2024. We see potential for some short-term elevated credit losses, but still find the risk of large losses overstated. We are 2% above consensus Q2e PTP. Potential dividends in Q4 would help signal strong credit quality. We reiterate our BUY and SEK53 target price.

Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK53.00) - Market still overstating risk

Q1 earnings were solid, with low credit losses the main positive. We still see a favourable growth outlook, with a 2023–2026e earnings CAGR of c9%, combined with 7–18% dividend yields. We continue to find the stock undervalued, at a 2025e P/E of c6x, adjusted for excess capital. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK53 (52) on 1–4% higher 2025–2026e EPS.

Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK52.00) - Asset quality still holding up

Despite the market’s concerns about imminent credit losses on Norion’s real estate lending, Q1 looks likely to feature the lowest loan loss ratio in six quarters. Current consensus Q1 PTP looks balanced. We still find the stock attractive at a c5x P/E for 2026e, adjusted for excess capital. We reiterate our BUY and SEK52 target price but have cut our 2024–2026e EPS by 3–11%, due mostly to timing effects on the net interest margin from a more prolonged rate-cutting cycle.

Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK52.00) - A dividend offer you can’t ignore

Q4 earnings were strong, driven by NII and lower credit losses QOQ. We see a favourable growth outlook, with c10% annual earnings growth combined with c14% dividend yields. We still find the stock undervalued at a 2025e P/E of c5x, adjusted for excess capital. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK52 (48) on 2–16% higher EPS for 2024–2025e.

Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK48.00) - Focus on financial targets

We expect focus in Q4 to be on Norion’s new financial targets, which we believe should help increase transparency on the company’s future and thus also investor appeal. Apart from this, we believe Q4 will be largely business as usual, with no major surprises in terms of credit quality. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK48 (46) on lower interest rates and slightly higher lending volumes.

Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK46.00) - Show me the money

Q3 earnings were solid, with strong Real Estate lending growth and mostly stable underlying margins and credit quality. We still expect a dividend policy announcement in Q4, with the potential for significantly greater investor appeal. We also find the stock undervalued at a c4x P/E for 2025e, adjusted for excess capital. We reiterate our BUY and SEK46 target price.

Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK46.00) - New name, new dividend policy

Norion (previously known as Collector) looks set to introduce dividend payments for the first time in H2. The good news from the FSA in Q3 has further crystallised the capital distribution case. We estimate that the company has excess capital equal to c25% of its market cap. Apart from this, we believe Q3e will see continued stability in terms of credit quality in corporate and real estate lending. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK46 (40) on an improved capital distrib...

Collector Bank (Buy, TP: SEK40.00) - Calm and collected

Collector’s Q2 earnings were solid, with its core Corporate and Real Estate lending continuing to perform well. We still find the stock undervalued as we believe the market is underestimating the dividend potential and overestimating the real estate lending risk. Having increased our 2024–2025e EPS by 1–2%, we have raised our target price to SEK40 (39) and reiterate our BUY.

Collector Bank (Buy, TP: SEK39.00) - Still no crisis

We believe the trends in Q2 have been similar to those in Q1: muted lending-volume growth, reversal of the positive short-term timing effects on the net interest margin (NIM), and resilient credit quality in Corporate and Real Estate lending. Due to slightly lower NIM and lending-volume estimates, we have cut our 2024–2025e EPS by c2–4%. We are 5% below consensus on Q2e EPS due to a 10bp lower NIM. Still, with the stock trading at a 2024e P/E of 6x, we reiterate our BUY but have cut our target p...

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Collector Bank (Buy, TP: SEK40.00) - I stand Collected

We reiterate our SEK40 target price but have upgraded Collector to BUY (HOLD). We find the risk in Collector’s real estate loan book overstated (illustrated in a 2024e P/E of 6x) after stress-testing the portfolio, and we find the recent drop in the share price overdone. We also find consensus dividend estimates too conservative.

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Collector Bank (Hold, TP: SEK40.00) - Set for a repeat of last quarter

We expect Q1 trends to be similar to those in Q4, but with net interest margins falling slightly QOQ on higher deposit competition. However, we expect demand for real estate and corporate loans to remain high, despite growing uncertainty. In addition, Collector does not seem to have the risk factors highlighted by the SVB collapse. Having cut our 2024–2025e EPS by c2%, we reiterate our HOLD but have lowered our target price to SEK40 (42).

Collector Bank (Hold, TP: SEK42.00) - Bigger and better

The Q4 report was solid, with the net interest margin hitting a five-year high. While this was significantly boosted by lagging interest expenses, we still see it as positive for the interest-margin outlook. Collector also offered new aggregate details on the real-estate lending portfolio, giving investors greater visibility on what risks to expect. We have raised our 2023–2024e EPS by 3–13% and our target price to SEK42 (36), but reiterate our HOLD.

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