Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK53.00) - Market still overstating risk

Q1 earnings were solid, with low credit losses the main positive. We still see a favourable growth outlook, with a 2023–2026e earnings CAGR of c9%, combined with 7–18% dividend yields. We continue to find the stock undervalued, at a 2025e P/E of c6x, adjusted for excess capital. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK53 (52) on 1–4% higher 2025–2026e EPS.

Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK52.00) - Asset quality still holding up

Despite the market’s concerns about imminent credit losses on Norion’s real estate lending, Q1 looks likely to feature the lowest loan loss ratio in six quarters. Current consensus Q1 PTP looks balanced. We still find the stock attractive at a c5x P/E for 2026e, adjusted for excess capital. We reiterate our BUY and SEK52 target price but have cut our 2024–2026e EPS by 3–11%, due mostly to timing effects on the net interest margin from a more prolonged rate-cutting cycle.

Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK52.00) - A dividend offer you can’t ignore

Q4 earnings were strong, driven by NII and lower credit losses QOQ. We see a favourable growth outlook, with c10% annual earnings growth combined with c14% dividend yields. We still find the stock undervalued at a 2025e P/E of c5x, adjusted for excess capital. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK52 (48) on 2–16% higher EPS for 2024–2025e.

Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK48.00) - Focus on financial targets

We expect focus in Q4 to be on Norion’s new financial targets, which we believe should help increase transparency on the company’s future and thus also investor appeal. Apart from this, we believe Q4 will be largely business as usual, with no major surprises in terms of credit quality. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK48 (46) on lower interest rates and slightly higher lending volumes.

Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK46.00) - Show me the money

Q3 earnings were solid, with strong Real Estate lending growth and mostly stable underlying margins and credit quality. We still expect a dividend policy announcement in Q4, with the potential for significantly greater investor appeal. We also find the stock undervalued at a c4x P/E for 2025e, adjusted for excess capital. We reiterate our BUY and SEK46 target price.

Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK46.00) - New name, new dividend policy

Norion (previously known as Collector) looks set to introduce dividend payments for the first time in H2. The good news from the FSA in Q3 has further crystallised the capital distribution case. We estimate that the company has excess capital equal to c25% of its market cap. Apart from this, we believe Q3e will see continued stability in terms of credit quality in corporate and real estate lending. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK46 (40) on an improved capital distrib...

Collector Bank (Buy, TP: SEK40.00) - Calm and collected

Collector’s Q2 earnings were solid, with its core Corporate and Real Estate lending continuing to perform well. We still find the stock undervalued as we believe the market is underestimating the dividend potential and overestimating the real estate lending risk. Having increased our 2024–2025e EPS by 1–2%, we have raised our target price to SEK40 (39) and reiterate our BUY.

Collector Bank (Buy, TP: SEK39.00) - Still no crisis

We believe the trends in Q2 have been similar to those in Q1: muted lending-volume growth, reversal of the positive short-term timing effects on the net interest margin (NIM), and resilient credit quality in Corporate and Real Estate lending. Due to slightly lower NIM and lending-volume estimates, we have cut our 2024–2025e EPS by c2–4%. We are 5% below consensus on Q2e EPS due to a 10bp lower NIM. Still, with the stock trading at a 2024e P/E of 6x, we reiterate our BUY but have cut our target p...

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Collector Bank (Buy, TP: SEK40.00) - I stand Collected

We reiterate our SEK40 target price but have upgraded Collector to BUY (HOLD). We find the risk in Collector’s real estate loan book overstated (illustrated in a 2024e P/E of 6x) after stress-testing the portfolio, and we find the recent drop in the share price overdone. We also find consensus dividend estimates too conservative.

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Collector Bank (Hold, TP: SEK40.00) - Set for a repeat of last quarter

We expect Q1 trends to be similar to those in Q4, but with net interest margins falling slightly QOQ on higher deposit competition. However, we expect demand for real estate and corporate loans to remain high, despite growing uncertainty. In addition, Collector does not seem to have the risk factors highlighted by the SVB collapse. Having cut our 2024–2025e EPS by c2%, we reiterate our HOLD but have lowered our target price to SEK40 (42).

Collector Bank (Hold, TP: SEK42.00) - Bigger and better

The Q4 report was solid, with the net interest margin hitting a five-year high. While this was significantly boosted by lagging interest expenses, we still see it as positive for the interest-margin outlook. Collector also offered new aggregate details on the real-estate lending portfolio, giving investors greater visibility on what risks to expect. We have raised our 2023–2024e EPS by 3–13% and our target price to SEK42 (36), but reiterate our HOLD.

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Collector Bank (Hold, TP: SEK36.00) - Ending the year on a high note

We expect the Q4 trends to be similar to those in Q3, with NIM and lending volumes in the Corporate and Real Estate segments boosted by high lending demand and increased interest rates. We believe interest margins will keep expanding for H1 but note the risk of corporate lending demand dipping during the year. Having raised our 2023–2024e EPS by 8–10%, we reiterate our HOLD but have increased our target price to SEK36 (26).

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Collector Bank (Hold, TP: SEK26.00) - An uNIMpeded boost

The Q3 report was solid, with credit losses the only slight disappointment. The net interest margin was boosted significantly by the effect of higher interest rates; hence we expect upward revisions to consensus 2023–2024e NIM. While little new detail was provided on the make-up of the real estate lending portfolio, its risk is becoming all the more relevant to investors. Having adjusted mainly our net interest income forecasts, our 2023–2024 EPS estimates have seen minor changes. We reiterate o...

Collector - Well capitalised with trough valuation - BUY

Q3 beat driven by strong NII growth 2023e-24e earnings down on increasing loan loss ratios BUY reiterated, TP cut to SEK 35 (45)

Collector - Strong NII growth drives 20% earnings beat

Q3 operating profit +20% vs. cons., up 47% y-o-y NII surprised positively, 3% above ABGSC, up 23% y-o-y Expect positive cons revisions of ~7-10%, share up today

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