Q1 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK49.00) - Signs of recovery in past-due loans

Past-due real-estate loans have started to come down, with Q1 profit boosted by the recognition of accrued interest revenues. We expect this to trend to continue over time, and see continued upside potential from this, along with our forecast 15–20% average annual total yield. We reiterate our BUY and target price of SEK49.

SCA (Buy, TP: SEK160.00) - Quality, growth and forest values

The main appeal of SCA in our view is its backward-integrated business, with its own forests supplying about 50% of its wood and fibre needs. With the stock priced at a record-high discount to the value of its own forestry business at the same time that SCA offers earnings growth and trades at attractive multiples on our forecasts, we continue to see a compelling investment case. We reiterate our BUY and SEK160 target price.

In line, but a stronger SEK hurts

Q1 EBITDA in-lne

Metso (Buy, TP: EUR11.00) - Relatively good place to be

We reiterate our BUY and EUR11 target price, with only small estimate changes following the Q1 results (which brought stronger orders but softer earnings than we expected). Despite general uncertainties, we continue to view Metso’s end-market exposure, financials and valuation as attractive.

Orders, margin, cash compensate delivery gap

Q1 delivery shortfall but not fundamentally worrying

Heads-up for report 24 April

SCA (Buy, TP: SEK160.00) - Resilient earnings in harsh markets

Given overall deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, combined with worsened FX, we have made significant 15–13% cuts to our 2025–2026e EBITDA. Still, due to the unique backward-integrated business model enabling exceptionally favourable production costs versus most peers, SCA is set to report healthy earnings even in a harsh economic environment. With the stock valued far below our SOTP of SEK240, we see excellent entry points in a unique, quality company. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our...

The Capital Goods Data Miner - April 2025

Q1 was OK but that's ancient history now

Did the volatility already affect large orders?

Two negatives and one positive

Q1 preview

Metso (Buy, TP: EUR11.00) - Slow large mining capital decisions

Metso (METSO FH, Buy) - Slow large mining capital decisions (19 pages)

Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK49.00) - A storm in a teapot

Q1 looks set to be an uneventful quarter – we still await reductions in past-due loans and a Q4 dividend announcement. We believe the market has overreacted to news of Norion’s use of consultants. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK49 (52).

Feb: Pulp shipments +0.3% y-o-y

Germany: Investing its way back to growth

Earnings quality kick continues

Finnish Industrials (, ) - Earnings quality kick continues (32 pages)