Company Update | Krungthai Card (KTC TB/BUY/Bt29.25/Target: Bt47.00) We anticipate KTC reporting a 1Q26 net profit of Bt2.1b, up 14% yoy and 3% qoq. We expect KTC’s loan portfolio to grow 2% yoy but contract 2% qoq in 1Q26 due to the high base from the seasonal high in Dec 25. KTC could report a qoq increase in credit cost in 1Q26 as the company will increase provision expenses to cushion against future uncertainties. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt47.00
Top Stories Company Update | Krungthai Card (KTC TB/BUY/Bt29.25/Target: Bt47.00) We anticipate KTC reporting a 1Q26 net profit of Bt2.1b, up 14% yoy and 3% qoq. We expect KTC’s loan portfolio to grow 2% yoy but contract 2% qoq in 1Q26 due to the high base from the seasonal high in Dec 25. KTC could report a qoq increase in credit cost in 1Q26 as the company will increase provision expenses to cushion against future uncertainties. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt47.00. Company Update | Tidlor Ho...
Greater China Economics | PMI March's PMI beat Bloomberg's consensus, with manufacturing PMI rebounding to 50.4 (+1.4pt mom) and non-manufacturing PMI returning to expansion at 50.1 (+0.6pt mom), as post-CNY activity resumed, though recovery diverged between services and construction industries. New export orders sub-index improved to 49.1 (+4.1pt mom) for manufacturing PMI and 48.8 (+4.1pt mom) for services PMI, pointing to genuine recovery in external demand. However, the purchase prices sub-i...
Greater China Company Results | Fuyao Glass (3606 HK/BUY/HK$60.25/Target: HK$105.00) FYG’s 4Q25 GAAP net profit missed expectations at Rmb2,248m (+11.3% yoy/-0.5% qoq), due to forex losses. Stripping out one-off items, adjusted net profit met estimates at Rmb2,427m (+36.2% yoy/+4.0% qoq) on a yoy margin expansion. Its earnings outlook remains brilliant, backed by: a) continuous market share gain overseas, b) ASP increase from optimisation of product mix, and c) its aluminium trim business. M...
Greater China Economics | China China set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0% yoy, in line with expectations, while maintaining a 4% fiscal deficit ratio. Fiscal policy remains the main growth driver, supported by Rmb4.4t in local government special bonds and Rmb1.3t in ultra-long treasury bonds, while monetary policy stays accommodative. Policy priorities focus on AI+, New Quality Productive Forces, industrial upgrading, and targeted consumption support, alongside welfare improvements and ...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: March Conviction Calls Chinese equities consolidated further in February, with the HSI and MSCI China Index declining 2.8% mom and 5.6% mom, respectively. March is expected to be volatile, as there are signs that the Middle East conflict could last for a while. We focus on names which have greater domestic exposure, adding Anta, China Duty Free, FII, Futu, Kuaishou and Tencent to our BUY list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: Rotating To Commodities Amid M...
Greater China Economics | China Investors expect the NPC to set a 2026 real GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0% yoy, with policy support led primarily by fiscal measures while monetary easing remains complementary. The official deficit is likely capped at 4%, though augmented fiscal expansion via special bond issuance will provide additional support. The 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to prioritise hard-tech self-reliance, advanced manufacturing and curbing industrial involution, with only target...
Company Update | Krungthai Card (KTC TB/BUY/Bt34.25/Target: Bt47.00) We came away from KTC’s analyst meeting with a neutral view. The CEO reiterated that the company remains focused on growth without taking excessive risk. KTC guided for 2026's credit cost to be similar or slightly higher than that of 2025. Based on management’s tone, we expect KTC to sustain a dividend payout ratio of 58-59% in the future. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of Bt47.00 (previously: Bt45.00).
Top Stories Company Results | GFPT (GFPT TB/HOLD/Bt10.10/Target: Bt11.00) GFPT reported a 4Q25 core profit of Bt494m (+59% yoy but -31% qoq). The results exceeded our and the market’s expectations. 2025’s net profit was Bt2,439m (+23.51%), while core profit stood at Bt2,441m (+30% yoy). Expect unexciting earnings momentum in 2026 due to global competition and lower gross profit margin yoy. Downgrade to HOLD with a lower target price of Bt11.00 (previously Bt13.50). Company Results | PTT (PTT...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile As of mid-Feb 26, over 20 Chinese provinces and cities have announced 2026 vehicle purchase subsidy schemes, aligning with the national policy that shifted to percentage-based subsidies (favouring mid-range to high-end vehicles) from 2025’s fixed amounts. This supports premium segments and market stability but may not fully counter the new 5% EV tax. 2026 PV sales forecast: 30.4m units (+3% yoy); PEV sales: 18.2m units (+19% yoy). Maintain MARKET WEIG...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite the risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, and Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebala...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property CRIC data show that the top 100 developers’ contracted sales fell 24.7% yoy in Jan 26, while new-home sales in 28 major cities declined 36% yoy. Second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities rose 1% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT but deepening industry downturn leads to rising possibility of policy support, supporting selective exposure. CR Land remains our top pick, with P/B at 1SD below the five-year mean, and PE and yield near the five-year average....
Company Results | Krungthai Card (KTC TB/BUY/Bt24.80/Target: Bt45.00) KTC posted a 4Q25 net profit of Bt2.08b, up 10% yoy and 6% qoq. The results beat our and consensus estimates by 10%. KTC’s loan growth expanded 0.4% yoy and 4.4% qoq in 4Q25. In 2025, the loan portfolio grew 0.4% yoy. The asset quality remained robust, with credit costs down 128bp qoq. We believe KTC will maintain a prudent approach to ensuring good asset quality. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt45.00.
Top Stories Company Results | Krungthai Card (KTC TB/BUY/Bt24.80/Target: Bt45.00) KTC posted a 4Q25 net profit of Bt2.08b, up 10% yoy and 6% qoq. The results beat our and consensus estimates by 10%. KTC’s loan growth expanded 0.4% yoy and 4.4% qoq in 4Q25. In 2025, the loan portfolio grew 0.4% yoy. The asset quality remained robust, with credit costs down 128bp qoq. We believe KTC will maintain a prudent approach to ensuring good asset quality. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt45.00. Company Re...
Greater China Economics | Trade Exports growth accelerated to 6.6% yoy in December (+0.7ppt mom), well above consensus, supported by strong shipments growth to Hong Kong and ASEAN, while exports growth to the US weakened further. Import growth surged to 5.7% yoy (+3.8ppt mom), beating expectations amid broad-based commodity recovery. Trade surplus widened to US$114.1b. Growths of motor vehicle, hi-tech, and mechanical & electrical exports strengthened. Overall, December’s trade data is marke...
Greater China Company Update | Lenovo Group (992 HK/HOLD/HK$8.95/Target: HK$9.70) Lenovo is expected to report its 3QFY26 results on 12 Feb 26. We estimate adjusted net profit to grow 8.2% yoy to US$470m on the back of a 12.1% yoy growth in revenue. The solid revenue growth was primarily driven by pulled-forward demand as consumers rushed to replace their PCs before further price hikes amid a memory super cycle. We factor in a worse-than-expected memory shortage and trim our FY27-28 estimate...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December pic...
Company Update | Krungthai Card (KTC TB/BUY/Bt26.50/Target: Bt45.00) We expect KTC to report a 4Q25 net profit of Bt1.9b, flat yoy but down 3% qoq. We anticipate KTC increasing its loan portfolio by 2% yoy and 6% qoq in 4Q25 due to the seasonal high. KTC could report a 51bp qoq increase in credit cost to 595bp in 4Q25 as we reckon the company will increase provision expenses to add cushion against future uncertainties. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt45.00.
Top Stories Strategy | Alpha Picks: Focusing On Undemanding Valuation And Not Impact Of Domestic Purchasing Power Our portfolio returns outperformed the market (+5.3% vs +0.2%). We have a neutral view on the SET Index, although the market may gain positive momentum from the election period. However, the market may be pressured by weak domestic purchasing power. We decided to add PTTEP and PTTGC to our portfolio as their share prices are still undemanding and their performances are not impacted...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.