Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite the risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, and Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebala...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property CRIC data show that the top 100 developers’ contracted sales fell 24.7% yoy in Jan 26, while new-home sales in 28 major cities declined 36% yoy. Second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities rose 1% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT but deepening industry downturn leads to rising possibility of policy support, supporting selective exposure. CR Land remains our top pick, with P/B at 1SD below the five-year mean, and PE and yield near the five-year average....
Company Results | Krungthai Card (KTC TB/BUY/Bt24.80/Target: Bt45.00) KTC posted a 4Q25 net profit of Bt2.08b, up 10% yoy and 6% qoq. The results beat our and consensus estimates by 10%. KTC’s loan growth expanded 0.4% yoy and 4.4% qoq in 4Q25. In 2025, the loan portfolio grew 0.4% yoy. The asset quality remained robust, with credit costs down 128bp qoq. We believe KTC will maintain a prudent approach to ensuring good asset quality. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt45.00.
Top Stories Company Results | Krungthai Card (KTC TB/BUY/Bt24.80/Target: Bt45.00) KTC posted a 4Q25 net profit of Bt2.08b, up 10% yoy and 6% qoq. The results beat our and consensus estimates by 10%. KTC’s loan growth expanded 0.4% yoy and 4.4% qoq in 4Q25. In 2025, the loan portfolio grew 0.4% yoy. The asset quality remained robust, with credit costs down 128bp qoq. We believe KTC will maintain a prudent approach to ensuring good asset quality. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt45.00. Company Re...
Greater China Economics | Trade Exports growth accelerated to 6.6% yoy in December (+0.7ppt mom), well above consensus, supported by strong shipments growth to Hong Kong and ASEAN, while exports growth to the US weakened further. Import growth surged to 5.7% yoy (+3.8ppt mom), beating expectations amid broad-based commodity recovery. Trade surplus widened to US$114.1b. Growths of motor vehicle, hi-tech, and mechanical & electrical exports strengthened. Overall, December’s trade data is marke...
Greater China Company Update | Lenovo Group (992 HK/HOLD/HK$8.95/Target: HK$9.70) Lenovo is expected to report its 3QFY26 results on 12 Feb 26. We estimate adjusted net profit to grow 8.2% yoy to US$470m on the back of a 12.1% yoy growth in revenue. The solid revenue growth was primarily driven by pulled-forward demand as consumers rushed to replace their PCs before further price hikes amid a memory super cycle. We factor in a worse-than-expected memory shortage and trim our FY27-28 estimate...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December pic...
Company Update | Krungthai Card (KTC TB/BUY/Bt26.50/Target: Bt45.00) We expect KTC to report a 4Q25 net profit of Bt1.9b, flat yoy but down 3% qoq. We anticipate KTC increasing its loan portfolio by 2% yoy and 6% qoq in 4Q25 due to the seasonal high. KTC could report a 51bp qoq increase in credit cost to 595bp in 4Q25 as we reckon the company will increase provision expenses to add cushion against future uncertainties. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt45.00.
Top Stories Strategy | Alpha Picks: Focusing On Undemanding Valuation And Not Impact Of Domestic Purchasing Power Our portfolio returns outperformed the market (+5.3% vs +0.2%). We have a neutral view on the SET Index, although the market may gain positive momentum from the election period. However, the market may be pressured by weak domestic purchasing power. We decided to add PTTEP and PTTGC to our portfolio as their share prices are still undemanding and their performances are not impacted...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December...
Company Update | Krungthai Card (KTC TB/BUY/Bt28.00/Target: Bt45.00) KTC guided a loan growth target of 1-2% in 2026. The CEO guided that the economic outlook in 2026 remains gloomy, and the company will focus on bottom line growth and robust asset quality in 2026. Meanwhile, there has been no guidance on the impact of selling unsecured NPLs to AMCs. BOT announced that it would be maintaining the credit card minimum payment at 8% until 31 Dec 26. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt45.00.
Top Stories Company Update | Krungthai Card (KTC TB/BUY/Bt28.00/Target: Bt45.00) KTC guided a loan growth target of 1-2% in 2026. The CEO guided that the economic outlook in 2026 remains gloomy, and the company will focus on bottom line growth and robust asset quality in 2026. Meanwhile, there has been no guidance on the impact of selling unsecured NPLs to AMCs. BOT announced that it would be maintaining the credit card minimum payment at 8% until 31 Dec 26. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt45.00.
Greater China Economics | Trade Exports growth rebounded to 5.9% yoy in November, beating consensus estimates, driven by a recovery in EU and Japan shipments, although exports to the US weakened further. Imports rose 1.9% yoy, below consensus expectations, amid mixed commodity performances. The trade surplus widened to US$111.7b. Exports of motor vehicle, hi-tech and mechanical & electrical goods improved, while integrated circuit imports strengthened. Overall, trade data showed resilience via d...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Demand stayed weak in Nov 25, with new-home sales in 28 cities down 42% yoy and second hand home prices in most cities falling. Land auctions in Shanghai and Hangzhou cooled, with most plots near reserve prices. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT on China property, with CR Land as our top pick for its consistent earnings outperformance. Sector Update | Macau Gaming Macau’s Nov 25 GGR reached MOP 21.1b, down 12% mom but up 14% yoy, and recovering to 92% o...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&...
Company Results | Krungthai Card (KTC TB/BUY/Bt30.00/Target: Bt45.00) KTC posted a 3Q25 net profit of Bt1.95b (+2% yoy, +3% qoq). The results are in line with our and consensus estimates. KTC’s loan growth expanded by 1% yoy and was flat qoq in 3Q25. Credit costs decreased 28bp qoq while NPL ratio stabilised qoq in 3Q25. We believe KTC will maintain a good asset quality. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt45.00.
Top Stories Sector Update | Retail We visited Lazada Thailand's headquarters. The CEO shared insightful data on both the Thai e-commerce market and Lazada Thailand. Thailand’s e-commerce recorded the fastest growth in the region with a yoy growth rate of 21.7% in 2024, with the market size expected to reach Bt2t by 2030. Listed retailers have adapted to evolving consumer behaviour patterns by expanding into e-commerce. Maintain OVERWEIGHT; top pick is CPALL. Company Results | Krungthai Card...
Greater China Company Results | Fuyao Glass (3606 HK/BUY/ HK$67.50/Target: HK$105.00) Fuyao Glass’ 3Q25 earnings miss stems from its margins, dragged by the US division and higher effective tax rate. Revenue grew 19% yoy on 11% sales volume growth and 7% ASP hike. Based on the lower margins, we trim our 2025-27 net profit forecasts by 5%/3%/2% to Rmb9.61b/Rmb10.98b/Rmb12.71b respectively, implying 19% CAGR. Earnings prospects remain positive on overseas market share gains, optimisation of pr...
Highlights • Expect 3Q25 net profit to come in at Bt1,912m, up 1% yoy and flat qoq. Project a 11bp qoq drop in credit cost to 561bp in 3Q25. • Foresee a further share price reversal due to undemanding valuation. • Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt45.00.
Top Stories Company Update | Krungthai Card (KTC TB/BUY/Bt30.25/Target: Bt45.00) We expect KTC to report a 3Q25 net profit of Bt1,912m, up 1% yoy and flat qoq. We also foresee KTC reporting yoy and qoq loan growth in 3Q25, driven by efficient asset quality control. We anticipate the company will benefit from government stimulus packages starting from 4Q25. Although we have seen some recovery in share price, we continue to expect a further share price recovery due to its undemanding valuation. M...
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