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ING
Warren Patterson ...
  • Wenyu Yao

The Commodities Feed: Libya disruptions continue

Your daily roundup of commodity news and ING views

ING
Iris Pang ...
  • Nicky Mapa
  • Prakash Sakpal
  • Rob Carnell

Good MornING Asia - 25 January 2021

No strong clues from the Friday session in Europe and the US will leave Asia looking for direction this Monday, ahead of global pointers such as this week's Fed meeting

Covenants — Asia: Chinese property bonds take covenant quality scores to all-time weakest level

The average covenant quality score for Asian high-yield bonds in the fourth quarter of 2020 was 3.63 (weak).

Talcott Resolution Life Insurance Company: Talcott's acquisition by Sixth Street will help it pursue growth strategy

Sixth Street has greater access to capital than the current ownership, making it easier for Talcott to grow its solutions and analytics business.

ING
James Knightley

US: What to expect from this week's Fed meeting

While no policy changes are likely we will get an update from Jerome Powell on how the Fed sees the outlook for the economy in the wake of new fiscal stimulus and the vaccine roll-out. A more positive assessment could bring forward expectations of QE tapering and eventual rate hikes

Credit Outlook: 25 January 2021

Published Monday and Thursday mornings, Moody’s Credit Outlook provides you with the credit implications of current events.

Peter Kurt Nielsen

Ericsson - Q4’20 preview: focus on IPR update

Strong Q4e but with less outstanding margins than in Q3 Forecasts adjusted for temporarily lower IPR revenues No new guidance but we expect update on IPR; BUY

Jan Erik Gjerland ...
  • Mads Thinggaard

Topdanmark - Downgrading after a strong run

Q4’20 was much better than expected, across the board We expect the high premium growth to continue into 2021 Downgrade to HOLD (Buy); TP up to DKK 310 (300)

Benjamin Silverstone ...
  • Jannick Lindegaard Denholt

Novo Nordisk - Gearing up for the short- mid- and long-term

Expect ’20 to end within the solid organic guidance range ’21 outlook to reflect caution, but also solid organic growth LT preferred BUY reiterated, TP up to DKK 512 (500)

Michael Heydt ...
  • Thomas R. Torgerson

DBRS Morningstar Confirms Australia at AAA, Stable Trend

DBRS, Inc. (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed the Commonwealth of Australia’s Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at AAA. At the same time, DBRS Morningstar confirmed the Commonwealth of Australia’s Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at R-1 (high). The trend on all ratings is Stable.

Michael Heydt

Commonwealth of Australia - Scorecard Indicators and Building Block Assessments

Please refer to PDF document for more detail about our research: Commonwealth of Australia - Scorecard Indicators and Building Block Assessments

Michael Heydt ...
  • Thomas R. Torgerson

DBRS Morningstar Confirms Australia at AAA, Stable Trend

Please refer to PDF document for more detail about our research: DBRS Morningstar Confirms Australia at AAA, Stable Trend

Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK255.00) - Covid-19 and weak USD hurt

We are above consensus on key products for Q4 and believe Lundbeck will reach its 2020 guidance. We believe focus will be on 2021 with the loss of exclusivity (LoE) for Northera and the weak USD putting pressure on the outlook, which is not well reflected in consensus, we believe. We remain positive on the long-term growth outlook and believe Vyepti will start to show its potential in 2021. We reiterate our BUY and DKK255 target price.

Rune Majlund Dahl

Genmab (Sell, TP: DKK2500.00) - Too fast, too soon

We forecast Q4 global Darzalex sales of USD1,186m, driven by Darzalex Faspro (c38% of global sales). We expect significantly higher operating costs in the 2021 guidance than consensus, which we believe could be a negative. We have raised our target price to DKK2,500 (2,451), but struggle to justify the recent share price rise, and have hence downgraded to SELL (HOLD).

Moody's assigns B2 CFR to Foundation Building Materials, senior secured term loan rated B2, senior notes Caa1; outlook stable

Rating Action: Moody's assigns B2 CFR to Foundation Building Materials, senior secured term loan rated B2, senior notes Caa1; outlook stable. Global Credit Research- 22 Jan 2021. New York, January 22, 2021-- Moody's Investors Service assigned a B2 Corporate Family Rating and B2-PD Probability of Default Rating to Foundation Building Materials, Inc..

RPI Intermediate Finance Trust: Moderate leverage, but run off mode results in decreasing royalties and declining diversity over time

Our credit view of RPI Intermediate Finance, reflecting its high margins and strong cash flow, offset by its revenue concentration in key products.

Nauman Khan

Almarai: Lowest gross margin on record

Almarai reported a weaker than expected set of Q4 20 results. Although net income increased +7.7% yoy (-46.0% qoq) to SAR336mn, it came lower than the NCBC and consensus estimates of SAR375mn and SAR381mn, respectively. The variance is due to lower gross margins along with higher financing and zakat expenses. Almarai gross margin stood at 32.3%, the lowest on record and compared to our estimates of 34.8%. Revenues increased +3.1% yoy to SAR3.82bn in Q4 20, in-line with our estimates. The reve...

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