Q4 earnings were below our forecast. Sales were in line but gross margin lower and operating expenses were higher than our estimate and consensus. The higher sales costs were due to marketing efforts behind Vonjo and launch preparations for the efanesoctocog alpha (expected EU approval in H1). Vonjo’s sales growth was also below our forecast. We reiterate our BUY and SEK320 target price.
We expect solid Q4 earnings (results due at 08:00 CET on 8 February), driven by Beyfortus royalties, Vonjo, and Gamifant sales. We forecast a Q4 gross margin of 80.2% and improved sales growth from the integration of the Vonjo and Doptelet sales force while costs should be kept at bay. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to SEK320 (300) on estimate revisions.
We are in line with post-Q2 consensus on the Q3 top line but well below on earnings, we believe largely explained by our higher operating cost assumption from the inclusion of CTI and streamlining initiatives only really starting to materialise in Q4e (the results are due at 08:00 CET on 30 October). We reiterate our BUY and SEK291 target price (adjusted for the rights issue).
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The company reported stronger than expected Q2 earnings, with adj. EBITA beating consensus by c15%. It is now guiding for growth in the high single digits (up from low-to-mid single digits). However, increased growth guidance also includes nirsevimab royalties and sales from the CTI acquisition, which should add significantly to sales growth. We reiterate our BUY and SEK305 target price, as the company is poised to enter a period with multiple product launches.
We expect focus in the Q2 report (due at c08:00 CET on 18 July) to be on the CTI acquisition – which might have been completed by then – rather than the actual results. For Q2, we are clearly above consensus on Doptelet sales (mainly to China), although this dilutes the gross margin. We reiterate our BUY and SEK305 target price.
SOBI announced its intention to acquire CTI Biopharma (CTIC US) for a total value of cUSD1.7bn (or an 89% premium to the last close). SOBI plans to finance the transaction with debt and at a later stage refinance c50% of the debt with a rights issue. SOBI’s share price reacted negatively to the news, and we believe this was an overreaction. We have not made any estimate adjustments at this stage and reiterate our BUY and SEK305 target price.
Q1 earnings were stronger than our estimate and consensus, driven by higher sales and a stronger gross margin in addition to operating expenses being slightly lower than we forecast. The company reiterated its 2023 guidance, which we believe is conservative, especially on the margin side. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK305 (285).
We believe consensus is too high on SOBI’s Doptelet sales for Q1 but too low on its gross margin. For 2023e, we see consensus on sales as reasonable and are just below the consensus average. Notably, SOBI is set to pay milestones in Q1 relating to Zynlonta, nirsevimab and Eisai, for a total of cUSD290m. This should hurt the cash flow but not the reported earnings. We reiterate our BUY and SEK285 target price.
SOBI’s Q4 earnings were stronger than we expected. Sales beat our estimate by c5%, and the adj. EBITA beat our forecast by 7%. The gross margin miss was offset by lower SG&A as a proportion of sales; thus, the adj. EBITA margin was c50bp above our forecast. 2023 guidance was in line with our expectation (low- to mid-single digit organic growth and an adj. EBITA margin in the low 30%s). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK285 (265).
SOBI is set to report Q4 earnings at 08:00 CET on 8 February. We expect a strong quarter and that the company will beat its 2022 guidance for earnings and margins. We expect operations within haemophilia to remain stable with growth coming from new products. With a strong RSV season, sales of Synagis should be solid and thus also margins in Q4. We believe 2023 guidance will be in line with consensus for growth and margins. We reiterate our BUY and SEK265 target price.
Sobi reçoit l’approbation de Santé Canada pour Empaveli™ (pegcétacoplan) pour le traitement de certains patients atteints d’hémoglobinurie paroxystique nocturne Le premier traitement C3 ciblé approuvé au CanadaApprobation fondée sur les résultats de l’ étude de phase 3 comparative directe PEGASUS dans le cadre de laquelle Empaveli™ a démontré une supériorité par rapport à l’éculizumab en ce qui concerne l’amélioration des taux d’hémoglobine1Pendant l’essai, 85,4 % des patients du groupe Empaveli ont évité les transfusions comparativement à 15,4 % des patients du groupe éculizumab1 WALTHA...
Sobi Receives Approval from Health Canada for Empaveli™ (pegcetacoplan) for the Treatment of Certain Patients with Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria The first targeted C3 therapy approved in CanadaApproval based on results from head-to-head PEGASUS phase 3 study where Empaveli™ demonstrated superiority to eculizumab in improving hemoglobin levels1On trial, transfusion avoidance was achieved by 85.4% patients in the Empaveli group versus 15.4% in the eculizumab group1 WALTHAM, Mass., Dec. 09, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- , the North American affiliate of Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB (Sobi®) ...
U.S. Food and Drug Administration Issues Emergency Use Authorization for KINERET® (anakinra) for the Treatment of COVID-19-Related Pneumonia Early treatment with KINERET reduced disease progression by 64 percent in hospitalized COVID-19 patientsi WALTHAM, Mass., Nov. 10, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Sobi North America, the North American affiliate of (Sobi®), today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued an emergency use authorization (EUA) for KINERET® (anakinra) for the treatment of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in adult patients who are hospitalized with p...
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