Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Buy, TP: SEK365.00) - Haemophilia the highli...

Q1 sales beat our forecast by 5% and adj. EBITA outperformed by 8%. Overall, we believe the highlight in the report was the stronger haemophilia result than expected, with solid growth in Altuvoct and a smaller decline for Elocta than forecast. The weak spot was Vonjo sales, which missed our estimate by 28% and consensus by 29%, with management citing stocking issues. We reiterate our BUY and SEK365 target price.

Efficient execution

Q1'25: delivering on EBITA

Heads-up for report 29 April

Meagre Q1 ahead, but long-term case intact

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Buy, TP: SEK365.00) - Slightly below consens...

We forecast a decent quarter, despite some difficult revenue comparables, with no manufacturing revenues, lower Elocta sales and lower Beyfortus royalties YOY, unlikely to be fully compensated by new product growth, such as for Altuvoct. Meanwhile, the company continues to invest in its recently launched products (and coming launches), which should be well known by the market. We reiterate our BUY and SEK365 target price.

Pioneering into sepsis

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Buy, TP: SEK365.00) - Investing for growth

SOBI reported in line with its pre-announced earnings. We expected a higher margin than consensus. Guidance for 2025 was for high-single-digit growth and an adj. EBITA margin in the mid-30s. We believe our margin assumptions have been too high, and have thus made adjustments. However, as SOBI has several new launches and multiple clinical trials, we believe the investments in sales and marketing are sound. We reiterate our BUY, despite lowering our estimates, and have raised our target price to ...

Investing in product launches

Heads-up for report Wed, 5 February

FY'24 topline upgrade, margin unchanged

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Buy, TP: SEK355.00) - On course for a strong...

We are above consensus on Q4e adj. EBITA, but fairly in line for 2025–2026e. We expect focus to be on Beyfortus royalties as well as the launch of Altuvoct in Germany and the coming launches in other large EU countries in 2025e. Following the soft share price performance recently, we have upgraded to BUY (HOLD), but reiterate our SEK355 target price.

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Hold, TP: SEK355.00) - Strong quarter, raise...

SOBI reported a very strong Q3, with beats of 15% on the top line and c42% on adj. EBITA. The company increased its guidance for the 2024 top line but reiterated it for margins. The latter indicates higher operating costs in Q4, and this dampened the share price yesterday. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK355 (335) on updated forecasts.

Igniting the Beyfortus booster

Q3: Beyfortus beats at the start of RSV season

Heads-up for Q3 report, Thursday 24 October

Full steam ahead with Beyfortus and Efan alfa

Q3 sales: ABGSCe above cons. on higher Beyfortus, Altuviiio royalties. Higher opex on sales activity could weigh on adj. EBITA. We still BUY the dip on rock-solid mid-term outlook.

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Hold, TP: SEK335.00) - Royalties and Vonjo i...

We believe the stock market will focus on two items in the Q3 report: Beyfortus royalties and Vonjo sales. Sales of Vonjo have disappointed thus far, but growth looks set to improve. Sanofi had Beyfortus manufacturing issues last RSV season, but these seem to have been addressed, which should lead to clearly higher royalties. However, a strong share-price performance has led us to downgrade to HOLD (BUY). We reiterate our SEK335 target price.